Texas Spring 2017

[Ntxw]

The entire month of April was disappointing for me. So what does May (our wettest month on average) have in store? Well not a whole lot at least for the next 10 days.

You are right it was a rather forgettable April for parts of central and south Texas. Mabry and bergstrom both got under an inch and a quarter of rain for the month which was well below normal.

[Ralph's Weather]

They are surveying the damage in Smith Co today. Wonder if my storm report today is what notified them as the damage was on ranchland so very few people have access to the area.

Update: Prelim reports from NWS are EF-1 north of Lindale and EF-0 near Mineola.

[Cpv17]

It looks like towards the middle of the month we may get into a more active pattern? Thoughts?

[Portastorm]

Victor Murphy, one of the mets at NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, always has some informative stuff on his Twitter account. Today, amongst other things, he shared that "1/3 of the way thru 2017, #Austin is running a whopping 1.7F ahead of 2006 for the warmest year on record. 2011 only #7 thru April. #txwx"

He also pointed out that 2011 achieved its notoriety by the monster hot summer we had that year. Regardless, we're off to a bad start.

[JDawg512]

Trust me, I hate being right when it comes to lack of rainfall locally. I would rather be wrong. Nothing would make me happier. It pains me to know that my arch enemy, "the Dry Miser" has been able to thwart my soggy goodness from soaking the landscape which is turning a little more tan and golden brown each day. We really need this next system to drop some decent rain but these quick progressive fronts do little to help sustain soil moisture. If we don't see May deliver the goods, the only other thing I can think that could hold off the next drought would be a slow moving tropical system and that's a double edged sword because if a system develops and doesn't hit along the right stretch of coastline and move inland in the direction that would benefit this part of the state, it could very well dry us out even more.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Trust me, I hate being right when it comes to lack of rainfall locally. I would rather be wrong. Nothing would make me happier. It pains me to know that my arch enemy, "the Dry Miser" has been able to thwart my soggy goodness from soaking the landscape which is turning a little more tan and golden brown each day. We really need this next system to drop some decent rain but these quick progressive fronts do little to help sustain soil moisture. If we don't see May deliver the goods, the only other thing I can think that could hold off the next drought would be a slow moving tropical system and that's a double edged sword because if a system develops and doesn't hit along the right stretch of coastline and move inland in the direction that would benefit this part of the state, it could very well dry us out even more.

"Slow moving tropical system"? Ummm, please consider your wishes carefully. Perhaps a move to a less arid environment would be more suitable to one who labels themselves as the "rain miser".

That being said, we are expecting a nice rain event on beautiful Galveston island sometime in the Wednesday time-frame. Looking forward to it.

[wxman22]

Yes we could see a couple of inches of rain here in Southeast Texas Wednesday the Texas WRF looks very stormy around here fwiw.

[Ntxw]

EF4 damage seems to have been found on the Canton area tornado

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/859178333485051904




This makes it the 3rd EF4 tornado in NTX within the past 5 years (Granbury 2013, Garland 2015, and this one). I think we went from 1995-2012 without anything more than EF3 within the NWS FW region

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies over SE Texas and
overall expect VFR conditions for the next 12 to 18 hours. Winds
should increase from the SE today in response to low pressure
forming in west Texas.

Gulf moisture should return after 03-06Z allowing at least MVFR
ceilings to form, perhaps some IFR ceilings. Showers should
develop after 06Z with deep convection possible after 09Z through
15-18z Wednesday. This will likely be the first round of
convection with a short wave trough moving across the area with
higher moisture/instability. TAF will carry VCSH/VCTS for now with
future TAF updates refining timing. A second round of convection
will be possible Wednesday evening as a cold front pushes into the
region.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A strong storm system expected to move across the plains will
bring thunderstorm chances back to SE TExas with the potential
for strong and possibly severe storms Wednesday and Wednesday
evening. High pressure will then build over the state and bring a
period of dry weather through the remainder of the week and into
early next week.

Another dry and warm day is expected today. Above normal high
temperatures are expected today as warm air and moist air
advection increases across the area.

The main time frame of concern will be tonight through Wednesday
evening. A warm front moving up the coast will enter into the
Matagorda Bay area by late this evening. Isolated showers ahead
of the warm front should become more widespread by daybreak. Model
forecast soundings show increasing CAPE values and helicity
values on Wednesday, indicating at least a slight chance for
isolated severe storms. Both the NAMbufr and GFSbufr soundings do
show a bit of warming aloft Wednesday afternoon around 700 to 750
mb as southwesterly winds develop. If so, this may help hinder
thunderstorm development in the afternoon. A plausible scenario
is that there will be an initial period of showers and isolated
thunderstorms moving northward ahead of the warm front in the
morning with a brief break over portions of the area in the
afternoon until the cold front arrives in the evening. The 00Z
run of the Texas Tech 3km WRF shows this scenario over the
southwestern counties of the forecast area and keeps storm chances
over the eastern counties throughout the afternoon. Like how SPC
summarizes the threat in their day 2 discussion--isolated hail and
wind threat with a possible tornado threat in the day; then a
more organized threat associated with a possible squall line ahead
of the cold front in the late afternoon and the evening. This in
line with the 00Z Texas Tech, GFS and ECMWF.

By the way, cannot rule out locally heavy rainfall with the
system. Model PWs do reach from 1.8 to 2 inches ahead of the
front. However, felt that storm motion will be fast enough to keep
amounts down. This is reflected in the accumulated model QPF which
shows only about one quarter to one half inch west of the I-45
corridor and 0.5 to 1 inch to the east. A couple of models had
0.5 to 1 inch along the coast as well.

After the frontal passage, drier conditions will persist into
Monday of next week. Do expect cooler than normal temperatures on
Thursday with a warming trend into the 80s starting on Friday
into Monday.

40

MARINE...
Low pressure is expected to form in the Texas Panhandle today
allowing for southerly winds to increase this afternoon and tonight.
Small craft exercise caution may be needed for the Upper Texas Coast
tonight. There is expected to be a surge in moisture with a weak
vorticity maximum moving over the Upper Texas Coast by Wednesday
morning. This may increase shower and thunderstorm activity
Wednesday morning. A cold front should push off the coast Wednesday
night bringing another chance of thunderstorms for the coastal
waters. Strong offshore winds should develop behind the front early
Thursday morning. Small craft advisories may be needed through the
morning hours with winds gradually decreasing through the afternoon.
Offshore winds continue for the end of the week and seas should drop
to low levels.

Tide levels may reach about 1 foot above normal in Galveston Bay
during high tide Wednesday afternoon. Gulf facing beaches may have
tides about 0.5 to 1.0 feet above normal during high tide near noon
time Wednesday. This will put most areas about 2.6 to 3.0 feet above
MLLW causing minimal impacts if any. Strong rip currents will be
possible Wednesday as well. We may need to monitor Thursday and
Friday for low water issues with offshore winds persisting. This may
cause tides to be about 1 foot below normal.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 68 85 56 76 / 0 30 70 30 0
Houston (IAH) 88 69 84 58 78 / 0 40 70 50 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 74 81 62 75 / 0 50 70 60 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[Texas Snowman]

EF4 damage seems to have been found on the Canton area tornado

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/859178333485051904




This makes it the 3rd EF4 tornado in NTX within the past 5 years (Granbury 2013, Garland 2015, and this one). I think we went from 1995-2012 without anything more than EF3 within the NWS FW region

That EF-4 rating was on the first tornado (Tornado #3 on the NWS graphic) that approached Canton and veered to the left as it did. That tornado then disapaited.

I'm not sure that I ever saw any chaser video of that one.

I think all the video I saw was of the second long track tornado (Tornado #4 on the NWS graphic) to approach the east side of Canton, the one that also impacted Fruitvale and Emory.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, the main one on videos east side of Canton is still under review. Lots of damage on that one to go through for the teams

[Texas Snowman]

On that above graphic, Tornado #4 is shown as one very long track tornado with a short break in its damage path.

On the most recent graphic this morning, NWS now lists it as two separate long track tornadoes:

Tornado #4, an EF-2, and Tornado #5, an EF-3.

[Texas Snowman]

This makes it the 3rd EF4 tornado in NTX within the past 5 years (Granbury 2013, Garland 2015, and this one). I think we went from 1995-2012 without anything more than EF3 within the NWS FW region

Still a long running F5/EF-5 tornado drought in Texas (not that anyone is complaining).

While several F5/EF-5 tornadoes have impacted Oklahoma in recent years, the last F5's to impact Texas were in Loyal Valley (May 11, 1999 - officially an F4, some pockets of possible F5 damage discovered though) and the infamous Jarrell, Texas killer tornado of May 27, 1997.

The last F5 tornadoes close to North Texas were on April 19, 1976 in Brownwood, Texas and on May 6, 1973 in Valley Mills, Texas.

Before that, it was April 3, 1964 in Wichita Falls.

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, we got down to 40 degrees here in Denison/Sherman yesterday morning...on May 1st.

There were a lot of mornings in January and February where that didn't happen.

Heat Miser is obviously on a mini-vacation!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Winds are back to pumping Gulf moisture into Texas again. Whipping up today. I do not like the looks of the soundings for SE Tx again. Be whether the upper air divergence makes it down here or not. CAPE levels are so high.

[Ntxw]

Pay attention to the EPAC, OP guidance are hinting at a possible hurricane SW of Mexico. With troughing in the west, tropical system in the epac, and low level flow from the gulf is classic flooding rains pattern.

When you can check those three items, it seldom fails to bring copious rains

[TheProfessor]

Pay attention to the EPAC, OP guidance are hinting at a possible hurricane SW of Mexico. With troughing in the west, tropical system in the epac, and low level flow from the gulf is classic flooding rains pattern.

When you can check those three items, it seldom fails to bring copious rains

I hope so, I'll be back in Texas tomorrow. Almost all the heavy rain events here in Ohio have happened at night so I never got to enjoy them. The training of storms from the Pacific is one of my favorite weather events.

[wxman22]

Winds are back to pumping Gulf moisture into Texas again. Whipping up today. I do not like the looks of the soundings for SE Tx again. Be whether the upper air divergence makes it down here or not. CAPE levels are so high.

Yes the CAPE does look very high, the SPC just upgraded parts of East Texas and Central Louisiana to an enhanced risk...




Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue May 02 2017

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from central/eastern
Texas to the central Gulf Coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
potential will exist for damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail
and a few tornadoes.

...East Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas/Mississippi...
A positively-tilted upper-level trough is forecast to dig south
southeastward into the southern Plains on Wednesday as a 70 to 80 kt
mid-level jet moves into the base of the trough. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern
Plains as a warm front sets up from the Arklatex east southeastward
into the lower Mississippi Valley. Elevated thunderstorms appear
likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in eastern Oklahoma
near a surface low along the western edge of the low-level jet.
During the day, the low-level jet is forecast to develop southward
into the Sabine River valley. Warm advection associated with this
feature along with surface heating will help convection to develop
across the warm sector during the late morning and early afternoon.
Surface-based thunderstorms also appear likely to develop along a
warm front extending east-southeastward across north-central
Louisiana and along the cold front extending southwestward across
east Texas. During the late afternoon and early evening, a
squall-line is expected to organize and move east southeastward
across the slight risk area reaching the central Gulf Coast late in
the period.

Concerning Wednesday's scenario, the models present many different
scenarios but hint at the possibility of squall-line developing
during the event. It seems that early in the event before the
squall-line develops, storms will have a chance to remain discrete
as scattered cells initiate across the warm sector in east Texas and
Louisiana during the early to mid afternoon. NAM forecast soundings
across the warm sector at 21Z show a very moist environment with
surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F and MLCAPE values in the 2000
to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, wind profiles (0-6 km shear in the
45 to 50 kt range) along with 0-3 km storm relative helicities of
350 to 450 m2/s2, should support supercells with large hail and a
potential for tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is forecast
along and just to the south of the warm front which should be
situated from near Tyler, Texas east-southeastward to near
Alexandria, Louisiana. An enhanced risk has been added along this
corridor to reflect a greater severe threat including a potential
for tornadoes. At this point, it remains unclear how long it will
take for the linear mode to become favored. The current thinking is
that a gradual transition from discrete to linear mode will take
place during the afternoon with a squall-line becoming organized by
late afternoon or early evening. After a squall-line becomes
organized, the favored severe threat will be for damaging wind gusts
although hail and brief tornadoes will be possible with rotating
cells embedded in the line. The squall-line should move across
southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana during the mid to
late evening.

..Broyles.. 05/02/2017

[JDawg512]

Trust me, I hate being right when it comes to lack of rainfall locally. I would rather be wrong. Nothing would make me happier. It pains me to know that my arch enemy, "the Dry Miser" has been able to thwart my soggy goodness from soaking the landscape which is turning a little more tan and golden brown each day. We really need this next system to drop some decent rain but these quick progressive fronts do little to help sustain soil moisture. If we don't see May deliver the goods, the only other thing I can think that could hold off the next drought would be a slow moving tropical system and that's a double edged sword because if a system develops and doesn't hit along the right stretch of coastline and move inland in the direction that would benefit this part of the state, it could very well dry us out even more.

"Slow moving tropical system"? Ummm, please consider your wishes carefully. Perhaps a move to a less arid environment would be more suitable to one who labels themselves as the "rain miser".

That being said, we are expecting a nice rain event on beautiful Galveston island sometime in the Wednesday time-frame. Looking forward to it.

Oh I'm very careful with my wishes and my words when it comes to such things which is why I said tropical system rather than a tropical cyclone... There are times when that kind of system is the only thing to break a major drought. Granted we are not at that point yet. Lakes in the region are doing quite well. My point being that a great deal depends on the path whether this part of Texas either gets rain or dries up even more with those sorts of systems. Trust me, I have no wish to see a damaging hurricane or tropical storm hit the Texas coast. The same way that nobody wants to see an EF-4 rip swaths of destruction across populated areas.

And one last point If I might. Austin is by no means an arid environment. It may not be as wet as say Houston or east Texas but it certainly isn't like San Angelo, Midland/Odessa or El Paso. Droughts occure in wetter climates, just look at the tenderbox that is Florida.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Trust me, I hate being right when it comes to lack of rainfall locally. I would rather be wrong. Nothing would make me happier. It pains me to know that my arch enemy, "the Dry Miser" has been able to thwart my soggy goodness from soaking the landscape which is turning a little more tan and golden brown each day. We really need this next system to drop some decent rain but these quick progressive fronts do little to help sustain soil moisture. If we don't see May deliver the goods, the only other thing I can think that could hold off the next drought would be a slow moving tropical system and that's a double edged sword because if a system develops and doesn't hit along the right stretch of coastline and move inland in the direction that would benefit this part of the state, it could very well dry us out even more.

"Slow moving tropical system"? Ummm, please consider your wishes carefully. Perhaps a move to a less arid environment would be more suitable to one who labels themselves as the "rain miser".

That being said, we are expecting a nice rain event on beautiful Galveston island sometime in the Wednesday time-frame. Looking forward to it.

Oh I'm very careful with my wishes and my words when it comes to such things which is why I said tropical system rather than a tropical cyclone... There are times when that kind of system is the only thing to break a major drought. Granted we are not at that point yet. Lakes in the region are doing quite well. My point being that a great deal depends on the path whether this part of Texas either gets rain or dries up even more with those sorts of systems. Trust me, I have no wish to see a damaging hurricane or tropical storm hit the Texas coast. The same way that nobody wants to see an EF-4 rip swaths of destruction across populated areas.

And one last point If I might. Austin is by no means an arid environment. It may not be as wet as say Houston or east Texas but it certainly isn't like San Angelo, Midland/Odessa or El Paso. Droughts occure in wetter climates, just look at the tenderbox that is Florida.

No worries. When I read "slow moving tropical system" followed by "system develops" I assumed you were referring to a cyclone.

Yes, you are correct. Both Houston and Eastern Texas are less arid than Austin.

Definitely looking forward to the rains tomorrow. Supposed to be a double-shot of activity. Early morning showers and then a line of showers later in the day.