Texas Spring 2017

[Texas Snowman]

Almost brisk out there this morning.

Still looking like a decent rain on the way.

https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/849608656060600320

I suspect the severe weather aspect of this will grow as the window gets closer. The US is on near record pace in terms of tornado count to date. Proving to be a destructive season

While no one can tell the future, I'd guess we end the country's drought of EF5s this year. Moore 2013 was the last official one.

Was thinking about this the other day. Last official F5/EF-5 in Texas was the Jarrell killer tornado in 1997.

Wonder when that will change?

[JDawg512]

Almost brisk out there this morning.

Still looking like a decent rain on the way.

https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/849608656060600320

I suspect the severe weather aspect of this will grow as the window gets closer. The US is on near record pace in terms of tornado count to date. Proving to be a destructive season

While no one can tell the future, I'd guess we end the country's drought of EF5s this year. Moore 2013 was the last official one.

Was thinking about this the other day. Last official F5/EF-5 in Texas was the Jarrell killer tornado in 1997.

Wonder when that will change?

I will never forget that day. It's frequently forgotten that during that outbreak an EF-4 hit the Lake Travis area and is the most powerful tornado to hit Travis County in recorded history. I shutter to think if that storm was just 30 miles to the east/southeast of its track, Austin would have been right in the crosshairs. We were pretty lucky.

[Texas Snowman]

NOT IN TEXAS!

Bad situation unfolding in Georgia...



768
WFUS52 KFFC 051654
TORFFC
GAC261-051745-
/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0041.170405T1654Z-170405T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1254 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SUMTER

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1252 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS
OBSERVED OVER WESTON, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRESTON, MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SUMTER COUNTY. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO AND A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGE FROM A HALF MILE TO ONE MILE WIDE.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,
BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMERICUS, PLAINS, NEW ERA AND MADDOX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT, A LARGE, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE, TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME, A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS.. MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE
AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA.



LAT...LON 3196 8444 3204 8444 3204 8443 3213 8443
3217 8431 3217 8429 3216 8428 3216 8418
3217 8418 3217 8414 3202 8413 3194 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 252DEG 25KT 3197 8460

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.50IN

[weatherdude1108]

I meant to post this earlier. But somehow it didn't take. Anyway, this was a really short discussion by EWX compared to the last several. Just interesting. An easy writeup day. Looking forward to more rain!


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper level ridging and surface light northerly winds will translate
to a cool period tonight with lows in the lower 40s over most areas.
Expect sunny skies on Thursday with high temperatures in the 70s.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Pleasant weather conditions are expected through the upcoming weekend
with a warming trend on the way as southerly winds return to the
region. The next chance for rain is expected early next week as an
upper level disturbance pushes across the Central Plains and a weak
frontal boundary stalls over the area. Have maintained of the
mentioning of showers and thunderstorms across the area for much of
next week due to the proximity of frontal boundary.

&&

[weatherdude1108]

I can handle waiting till Monday without rain especially if we see some cooler temps during the last half of the week. It's a bit too warm for working outside today and will be worse tomorrow. Maybe I should hire the Heat Miser as a gardener. I'll handle the wet days.

[South Texas Storms]

The latest models continue to indicate a wet weather pattern will return to much of Texas early next week. Some of the models keep daily rain chances around over the next 2 weeks. Bring it on!

[wxman57]

Pretty cold out there this morning. Down to 41 in Conroe. Low 50s at my house in SW Houston. Who let winter return to Texas?

[newtotex]

Almost brisk out there this morning.

Still looking like a decent rain on the way.

https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/849608656060600320

I suspect the severe weather aspect of this will grow as the window gets closer. The US is on near record pace in terms of tornado count to date. Proving to be a destructive season

While no one can tell the future, I'd guess we end the country's drought of EF5s this year. Moore 2013 was the last official one.

Was thinking about this the other day. Last official F5/EF-5 in Texas was the Jarrell killer tornado in 1997.

Wonder when that will change?

I was 9 when the Jarrell tornado hit and was glued to the Weather Channel for days after when they were talking about it, I actually still have the newspaper clipping from it (Tornado nerd lol). The Jarrell tornado and the 98' Oak Grove, Alabama F5 that passed just a few miles north of us in Tuscaloosa are the reasons why I became fascinated with tornadoes

[Tireman4]

Pretty cold out there this morning. Down to 41 in Conroe. Low 50s at my house in SW Houston. Who let winter return to Texas?

Just a brief interlude. Summer is coming, no matter what I want.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking good for the Rain Miser, according to latest EWX discussion!

What I'm confused on is they mention:

At this time, we are thinking storm total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches mainly
across the Hill Country including the Austin metro area...

Then they say:

...rainfall amounts limited to one inch or less for the period.

Seems contradictory. I'm just confused(?)

The local KXAN station had 2 to 4 inches over 7 days.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Upper level moisture will increase across the area tonight into
Friday as an upper level disturbance pushes over northern Mexico and
west Texas. However, this thin layer of clouds may not be enough for
surface temperatures to drop into the upper 40s across the Hill
Country and lower 50s over the rest of the area.

The return of southerly flow and increased moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico into our area will result in few clouds on Friday with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s across most locations. As low level
moisture increases Friday night, expect cloudy skies to return and
linger across the region through early Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Continued low level moisture across the area will result in partly to
mostly cloudy skies along the I-35 corridor on Saturday. By Saturday
night into Sunday, an upper level trough is forecast to push across
the Central Plains. This will help low level moisture to further
increase and aid for the development of light patchy drizzle along
the escarpment/Hill Country area. Cloudy skies are anticipated for
much of Sunday before the next chance for rain.

By Monday afternoon into the evening hours and continuing into
Tuesday, a cold front is expected to push across the Hill Country.
The GFS solution is slower with this system while the ECMWF is a bit
faster and brings the front across the I-35 corridor. Pwats are
expected to be around the 1.5 to 1.7 inches range, which represent
the likelihood of moderate to localized heavy rains. At this time, we
are thinking storm total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches mainly
across the Hill Country including the Austin metro area and less than
an inch elsewhere through the period.

The weather pattern continues wet for much of next week with chances
of rain possible at any given time mainly along and east of Highway
83 with rainfall amounts limited to one inch or less for the period.

[Portastorm]

I think what they are saying is that 1-3" is possible Mon-Tue but the later week period will also have rain chances but that the total amount of that latter period will be 1" or less.

[Brent]

Next week looks very unsettled, GFS and the Euro both in agreement on multiple rounds of rain. Enjoy the sunshine this weekend.

The GFS stays very wet even out in fantasy land

[Ntxw]

Through about the first week of April DFW is +4.1F above normal. Rainfall is at 2.14" which is 1.69" above normal.

[Brent]

Through about the first week of April DFW is +4.1F above normal. Rainfall is at 2.14" which is 1.69" above normal.

Find it interesting even during this "cold" snap DFW's still been just average. 73 yesterday, 76 today, average is 74.

[bubba hotep]

Next week looks very unsettled, GFS and the Euro both in agreement on multiple rounds of rain. Enjoy the sunshine this weekend.

The GFS stays very wet even out in fantasy land

Euro EPS agrees on a wet period with max totals centered along the I35 corridor. Also, given the time of year, active pattern means storm chances!

[Brent]

Yep next week is the infamous hailstorm anniversary here in Wylie...

WFAA's model just had a lot of rain Monday in DFW and lingering into much of Tuesday.

[Ntxw]

Through about the first week of April DFW is +4.1F above normal. Rainfall is at 2.14" which is 1.69" above normal.

Find it interesting even during this "cold" snap DFW's still been just average. 73 yesterday, 76 today, average is 74.

It's all relative of course. Normal feels cold compared to the anomalous warmth of the past 12-24 months. When it's 80s in winter 60s in 70s in April feels cool but in reality it really isn't that much below normal. This time of year though, rain is more important.

[1900hurricane]

For the moment at least, I'm not feeling very high as far as severe weather is concerned for early next week. Upper level support looks suspect at best with neutral to only slightly falling 500 mb heights, meaning only weak forcing for ascent from aloft. It looks like the main driver for the event will be convergence and lift over a weak cold/stationary front draped across the state. Shear vectors that are largely parallel to this boundary could set up some training storms, but I'm not particularly impressed with the setup as it currently appears to evolve.

[bubba hotep]

New Euro Weeklies want to bring back a replay of Spring '15! Buckle up.

[bubba hotep]

For the moment at least, I'm not feeling very high as far as severe weather is concerned for early next week. Upper level support looks suspect at best with neutral to only slightly falling 500 mb heights, meaning only weak forcing for ascent from aloft. It looks like the main driver for the event will be convergence and lift over a weak cold/stationary front draped across the state. Shear vectors that are largely parallel to this boundary could set up some training storms, but I'm not particularly impressed with the setup as it currently appears to evolve.

This is basically my take. There may be some locally enhanced areas on any given day depending on the prior day but I don't see anything that really jumps out.