Texas Spring 2017

[Brent]

Just under 2 inches of rain here... beautiful. Great start to April.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the models are pointing towards the 1st of next week for the next significant system. Too far out to pin down any details but svr wx is probably an option given the time of year. Also, tomorrow evening could see a sneaky storm or two for us up here in the NE positions of DFW.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like both the EWX office and Bob Rose are latching onto rain chances early next week. EWX may be going on what Bob Rose is saying, since EWX came out with their discussion at 3:08pm, and Bob Rose came out with his discussion at 2:48pm.


EWX
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

After the very warm day Tuesday, a nice cool down is expected
Wednesday into Thursday behind a dry weak cold front that moves
through. Temperatures will warm into the weekend as the pattern
remains dry until early next week.

The aforementioned trough over north Texas on Tuesday will usher in
a weak cold front through the entire area. Despite south winds
Tuesday ahead of the front, return moisture will remain low given
the previous systems northwesterly strength forcing the sub-tropical
airmass well out into the Gulf. At the time of frontal passage
Wednesday morning, PWATs only look to recover to 0.7" or less. A few
showers could from on the front in the coastal plains to the Texas
Coast Wednesday morning but am not expecting much activity even in
this area.

Low-level ridging will take over by late week with weak northwest
flow aloft. This is a stable and tranquil pattern and slow airmass
modification will occur going into the weekend as south winds return
with southwest flow aloft occurring in advance of a developing
trough along the west coast. Greater forcing and moisture should be
in place by next Monday to support shower and thunderstorm
generation. Both the ECMWF and the GFS appear to be in decent
agreement on this solution.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0


Bob Rose
Forecast solutions indicate the next Pacific trough of low pressure will be moving east from the southern Rockies to the southern Plains states late Sunday into Monday. This system is expected to drag a Pacific cold front across Texas next Monday. Ahead of the trough, breezy and warm weather is forecast Sunday, with temperatures warming to the mid and upper 80s. An area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop Sunday night into Monday morning as the front moves across the region. Today's data suggests rain amounts should average around a half of an inch. The models indicate a chance for rain showers will continue next Tuesday and Wednesday as a second trough of low pressure lingers to our west. 2-day rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter of an inch. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be near 80 degrees.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[JDawg512]

I can handle waiting till Monday without rain especially if we see some cooler temps during the last half of the week. It's a bit too warm for working outside today and will be worse tomorrow. Maybe I should hire the Heat Miser as a gardener. I'll handle the wet days.

[Brent]

GFS hinting at the potential for a multi day heavy rain event next week flooding would be an issue around North Texas if the current forecasts verify but it is still a week and beyond. It's been showing a bullseye around DFW of over 5 inches

[bubba hotep]

GFS hinting at the potential for a multi day heavy rain event next week flooding would be an issue around North Texas if the current forecasts verify but it is still a week and beyond. It's been showing a bullseye around DFW of over 5 inches

I'm actually buying into another big event for Texas. The current Pacific jet should result in a brief +PNA before crushing Cali with rain again and then the RWs come crashing in. Timing will probably change but I'm pretty much sold on another solid system next week.

[Tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 041144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.AVIATION...
Some patchy MVFR/IFR fog that has developed early this morning will
lift by 14-15Z. VFR for the rest of the day with just some high
clouds and increasing south winds. Think we`ll see some MVFR
ceilings develop this evening and maybe some fog overnight ahead
of a cold front. Becoming VFR with winds shifting to the NW and
possibly becoming gusty behind the front as it moves through the
entire area late tonight/Thursday morning. VFR tomorrow with just
some high clouds along with strong and gusty northwest winds. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/

Discussion...
A largely quiet week of weather is expected. A frontal passage
tonight will usher in cooler and much drier air, but chances for
rain max out at light showers at the rainiest - and the most
likely scenario is probably a dry passage. After that, gorgeous
conditions (by this native Wisconsite`s standards, anyway) until
our next decent shot at rain early next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Satellite shows some high clouds cruising across Southeast Texas
tonight, but skies are otherwise clear. The quiet weather has
allowed for a stout nighttime inversion to set up - this is also
evident with the loss of signal from over-the-air channels on our
situational awareness displays (if breaking news erupts overnight
requiring weather support, we will have to find out online or with
a phone call). The return of onshore flow has helped bring in a
shallow, low level air mass, and all of these factors combine to
allow for some patchy fog across most of the area outside of the
Houston heat island. At worst, Crockett briefly dipped to 2 1/2
mile visibility, but most impacts have been light so far, and
don`t expect that to change by morning, particularly as winds are
expected to pick up.

Another sunny day is expected today with plenty of warmth ahead of
yet another cold front expected late tonight. As with yesterday,
Galveston and College Station`s record highs should be safe
(though it`s getting close at CLL), while the forecast explicitly
forecasts ties of the records at both Intercontinental and Hobby.
We may be on record watch this afternoon...

SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM [Tonight Through the Weekend]...
The front should work its way through late tonight. Though we`ve
had enough moisture return for shallow surface impacts, this
moisture is extremely shallow - model progs of precipitable water
are in the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range, exclusively found in the lowest
2000 or so feet. There might be enough moisture and support for
vertical motion along the front that we might be able to squeeze
out some shallow, light showers. But that`s likely the high-end
scenario. Probably not wise to bank on rain with this front.

Behind the front, we do see some pretty stout northwest winds,
with 30-35 knots at 850mb. Expect that to mix down and support
some gusty conditions, particularly over the waters. While it
should be noticeably breezier over the land, don`t think at this
time that it will be enough to need any wind advisories, though it
may be close at the coast Wednesday morning. There may be some
implications for fire weather in lighter fuels (more on that
below). Colder and much drier air should follow on the northwest
flow, knocking mid to late week temperatures back into the low to
mid 70s (aka near or just slightly below seasonal averages).

Ridging throughout the column will establish itself over Texas on
Thursday, and continue into the weekend, with onshore flow
resuming by Fridayish as the surface high drifts east. This will
help establish a warming trend back into the 80s, as well as
gradually increasing humidity.

LONG TERM [Early Next Week]...
Despite relatively good model agreement into the weekend, things
start to blow up next week, right around the time we begin to look
for our next period of active weather. There`s pretty good
agreement in an upper trough in the northern stream moving through
the Central US at this time, and on its own probably isn`t deep
enough to support a real strong front into Southeast Texas. But
that`s about where the good agreement ends. The Euro scoots a vort
max through the southern stream, which helps push the front to the
coast, where it brings us some rain Monday afternoon/night. (It
then stalls the front, keeping rain chances into midweek, then
forms a surface low on this coastal trough to give us even more
rain to close the week, but let`s ignore that for now). On the
other end, the GFS does no such thing, and stalls out the front
northwest of our area, until a vort max ejected out of the next
upper trough in the pattern helps nudge it a little more - just
enough to bring rain to the northwesternmost edge of our area of
responsibility. For what it`s worth, the Canadian is between the
two, but probably more like the GFS.

Looking at the ensembles, there isn`t a ton of help - outside of
a couple outliers, the GEFS strongly backs up the GFS op scenario.
Meanwhile, the EPS is maybe a bit less in support of the Euro,
keeping near/just above normal heights over our area early next
week, but it does also show a signal of the boosting shortwave,
too. So, when it doubt...blend! I`ve thrown in some slight
chance/chance PoPs in deference to the Euro early next week, but
these are some tempered PoPs that will almost assuredly move up or
down once the true picture begins to come into focus.

MARINE...
Onshore winds are around 15 knots early this morning, and expect
speeds to remain generally in a 10 to 15 knots range for most of
the day. If winds get just a little bit higher, we`ll need to
issue caution flags for parts of the area. The next cold front is
still on schedule to move off the coast before sunrise tomorrow
morning. At this time, it looks like we`ll need caution flags or
advisories for the Bays and advisories for the 00-60m nm waters as
northwest winds behind the front strengthen to around 20 to 25
knots and gusty. Seas will also build behind the front, currently
expected to increase to 6 to 8 feet with occasional heights up to
10 feet. Winds and seas will gradually come down Wednesday night
through Friday as high pressure builds into the area. Onshore
winds return late on Friday and on into Friday night as the high
moves off to the east, then strengthen over the weekend in
response to the next developing system out west. 42

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday mainly
due to the combination of lowering relative humidities (upper 20s to
lower 30s in the afternoon) and gusty northwest to north winds of 15
to 25 mph. On Thursday, humidities are currently expected to drop
even lower (into the lower to mid 20s), but winds will be much
weaker (around 5 to 10 mph). 42

CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperature records for Tuesday (year)/Forecast for
Today:

College Station: 90 F (1918)/88 F
Houston (IAH): 88 F (1897)/88 F
Houston (Hobby): 87 F (1940)/87 F
Galveston: 82 F (2011)/79 F

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 54 74 48 76 / 0 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 62 76 51 77 / 0 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 68 75 61 73 / 0 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...42
MARINE...42
FIRE WEATHER...42
CLIMATE...Luchs

[TheProfessor]

Wow, I could see a trace to a couple of inches of snow later this week. That would be Back to Back Aprils if that were to happen.

[Ntxw]

Half mile visibility, snow fog and windy in Dalhart currently. Ahh the panhandle, place of extremes.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Half mile visibility, snow fog and windy in Dalhart currently. Ahh the panhandle, place of extremes.

78 here and not a cloud in the sky, while 35 there and accumulating snow. What a difference a few hours make.

[Brent]

Half mile visibility, snow fog and windy in Dalhart currently. Ahh the panhandle, place of extremes.

And near 100 down in South Texas gotta love the variation lol

[weatherdude1108]

I'm already looking forward to rain again next week. "Stay tuned..."

The humidity plummeted yesterday and it warmed up. Now the winds have kicked up out of the southwest. Expecting a dry frontal passage tonight. Topsy turvy.
A few days of this dry and windy stuff (despite cooler temps) will evaporate the 1/2 inch I got on Sunday in no time, if not already. At least the subsoil is moist to wet.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 042002
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
302 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Main highlight this period is the ongoing well-above normal
temperatures this afternoon and then the nice cool down expected for
tomorrow due to a dry cold frontal passage overnight.

Warm and windy conditions are ongoing across south-central Texas
this afternoon with widespread upper 70s to mid 80s. By peak heating
in a few hours, locations across the Rio Grande Plains could be
upwards of the low to mid 90s with upper 80s most other locations
(other than the Hill Country which will still push into the mid 80s).
Winds have also been elevated today from the south to southwest with
gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at times. The warm and windy conditions
are due to a developing surface low and associated shortwave trough
over north Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon. Despite this potent
system, the atmosphere over south-central Texas remains too dry in
the low- and mid-levels to support much cloud generation, much less
any rain or thunderstorm chances. The system will force a weak cold
front southward overnight. The precipitable water amounts (PWATs) or
the measure of how much moisture is in a specific column of the
atmosphere, is only 0.5 to 0.7 inches across the region. Given the
stronger forcing of the system will stay north and the low moisture
content of the atmosphere, the front will be dry as moves through
overnight. A few showers could develop along the Texas coast where
deeper moisture exists but not expecting it over south-central Texas.
Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front.

Temperatures will be nearly 15 degrees less tomorrow afternoon than
today`s readings. Sunny skies will abound as temperatures will only
reach into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Continued dry and tranquil pattern expected through late week and
the weekend. The only highlight now starting to enter the long-term
time-frame will be early next week as global models point to a more
active pattern. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday
and Tuesday.

Zonal to weak northwest flow aloft will persist late week over top a
developing ridge of higher pressure. This all translates to a quiet
and stable pattern with cool mornings and nice afternoons with plenty
of sunshine. By the weekend, the low-level ridging will shift east
and open up the Gulf of Mexico for return moisture. Low clouds could
start to creep in by Saturday morning and will certainly be in place
by Sunday morning before mixing out in the afternoon. Will need to
watch rain chance trends for Sunday if enough moisutre is able to
return and enough instability exists for some low-end chance of
shower generation.

The bigger story will be going into Monday and Tuesday of next week
as a stronger shortwave trough shifts across the western US. GFS
shifts the trough a bit farther north than the ECMWF that shows a
more heavy rain impact solution. Will of course watch trends going
forward but regardless of solution, rain and storm chances will be on
the increase given the overall pattern. Stay tuned on the evolving
forecast for early next week.

[Cpv17]

Wow! I'm really liking what I'm seeing right now from the CPC & WPC! Looks like areas south and west of Houston may actually get some decent rains this time around. Still way too far out though, unfortunately.

[bubba hotep]

. Also, tomorrow evening could see a sneaky storm or two for us up here in the NE positions of DFW.

Dryline updrafts! Blue line chasing lol

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/849399610049269762

[bubba hotep]

. Also, tomorrow evening could see a sneaky storm or two for us up here in the NE positions of DFW.

Dryline updrafts! Blue line chasing lol

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/849399610049269762

Storms went warned and hail was reported a few miles north of my location. Pretty successful chase but I've had pretty good luck in the past chasing from downtown via the train to my car.

[Ralph's Weather]

About to get in on a quick storm here. Looking forward to a coolish day tomorrow with highs in the 60s.

[bubba hotep]

Almost brisk out there this morning.

Still looking like a decent rain on the way.

 https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/849608656060600320

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI has been negative for a week now. There are west winds forecasted just west of the dateline, both are positives for the tropical Pacific connection. In terms of ENSO from below the surface of the ocean via TAO buoys, there is still no El Nino or warm pool for one at this time yet. With the trades weakening significantly however, La Nina-esque patterns should be coming to an end.

[Yukon Cornelius]

45 this morning. the a/c in the truck actually got a break this morning. Felt really nice. Tomorrow morning we could possibly see upper 30s for a low.

[Ntxw]

Almost brisk out there this morning.

Still looking like a decent rain on the way.

 https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/849608656060600320

I suspect the severe weather aspect of this will grow as the window gets closer. The US is on near record pace in terms of tornado count to date. Proving to be a destructive season

While no one can tell the future, I'd guess we end the country's drought of EF5s this year. Moore 2013 was the last official one.