Texas Spring 2017

[paintplaye]

Biggest things to keep an eye on include how fast a negative tilt occurs with the trough and where the "triple point" sets up. Also progression of the surface low will be key with how fast winds start to veer with time. As it stands now models are coming into better agreement that these will not be as big of an issue as previously thought.

[EF-5bigj]

We shall see we had a destructive tornado in Virginia on Friday.

[TexasF6]

This is a dangerous situation. Definitely NOT to be taken lightly!!!! Houston friends, be ready for anything.

[Tireman4]

Agreed. Be weather wary
We are 17 miles north of Houston.

[cycloneye]

There is a special thread for the severe weather of April 2 so go there to post or get information about it.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=118677&p=2576742#p2576742

[JDawg512]

So what's everyone's thoughts on the NAM 3K and WRF-ARW models which show the Austin area missing out on a lot of the action? The NAM has a couple of waves moving through at least. I've come to respect those short range models because more times than not they tend to get the general outcome even if timing and specific locations are a bit off. Of course as with all models, they should only be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt. The only reason why I am curious about what others think is they haven't changed a whole lot since yesterday and that tells me that they might have a good grasp of what may happen.

Rain chances have been lowered for this afternoon. Cap is stronger than was expected so not sure that we will see much rain in my area. I'm glad to see showers are increasing across the Hill Country over the last 30 min so maybe we can get some decent rain. I'll be watching closely and may pull out my rain machine to help it along.

[South Texas Storms]

So what's everyone's thoughts on the NAM 3K and WRF-ARW models which show the Austin area missing out on a lot of the action? The NAM has a couple of waves moving through at least. I've come to respect those short range models because more times than not they tend to get the general outcome even if timing and specific locations are a bit off. Of course as with all models, they should only be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt. The only reason why I am curious about what others think is they haven't changed a whole lot since yesterday and that tells me that they might have a good grasp of what may happen.

Rain chances have been lowered for this afternoon. Cap is stronger than was expected so not sure that we will see much rain in my area. I'm glad to see showers are increasing across the Hill Country over the last 30 min so maybe we can get some decent rain. I'll be watching closely and may pull out my rain machine to help it along.

I'm not so sure I buy what those models are showing. HRRR, GFS, and the Euro are indicating storms farther south along IH-10. We should know more by this evening.

[JDawg512]

So what's everyone's thoughts on the NAM 3K and WRF-ARW models which show the Austin area missing out on a lot of the action? The NAM has a couple of waves moving through at least. I've come to respect those short range models because more times than not they tend to get the general outcome even if timing and specific locations are a bit off. Of course as with all models, they should only be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt. The only reason why I am curious about what others think is they haven't changed a whole lot since yesterday and that tells me that they might have a good grasp of what may happen.

Rain chances have been lowered for this afternoon. Cap is stronger than was expected so not sure that we will see much rain in my area. I'm glad to see showers are increasing across the Hill Country over the last 30 min so maybe we can get some decent rain. I'll be watching closely and may pull out my rain machine to help it along.

I'm not so sure I buy what those models are showing. HRRR, GFS, and the Euro are indicating storms farther south along IH-10. We should know more by this evening.

Good point, EWX has a bit of uncertainty underlying the afternoon discussion. I certainly don't want destructive storms, but would like to see some decent widespread rainfall across the region. It looks like it will be at least a week before we see rain again.

[Brent]

Not to take away from the impending severe weather, but..

The GFS has a snowstorm in Oklahoma on April 13th and DFW has a freeze behind it

[JDawg512]

Not to take away from the impending severe weather, but..

The GFS has a snowstorm in Oklahoma on April 13th and DFW has a freeze behind it

I noticed that as well lol.

[WeatherGuesser]

Lot of reference to MDTs being rare for TX, yet TX has a lot of severe weather. Begs the question -- are Risk Days weighted for the area affected? Does it take more potential for them to issue a MDT for TX than for MN (for example) where severe weather is less common?


Or is it a set parameter like definitions of severe thunderstorms or blizzards?

[cycloneye]

This discussion is for the activity occurring at this time and not related to the big event expected for Sunday so that is why I am postng it here.

Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 020020Z - 020145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for strong wind gusts and large hail
may exist with cells crossing the Rio Grande River over the next
hour. However, the threat should remain too small in spatial extent
for watch issuance within the next 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Left and right splits of a cell that organized over the
Serranias del Burro are approaching the Rio Grande this evening,
aided by a band of ascent associated with an upper-level southerly
jet. While deeper moisture remains displaced to the east (evident in
the 00Z DRT sounding), steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
relatively straight, elongated hodographs (representing around 50-55
kt of effective shear) may maintain one or both of these cell splits
as they enter Texas. Moreover, occasional updraft organization from
strong southwesterly mid-level flow may yield isolated large hail.
Strong, gusty winds also remain a possibility considering the deeply
mixed boundary layer. Nonetheless, a lack of more substantial
moisture and forcing for ascent should keep this severe threat
brief/localized, precluding watch issuance.

By late evening into early tonight, a more substantial threat should
materialize, as low-level moisture surges west and convection
re-develops along higher terrain. However, this scenario will be
addressed in a later mesoscale discussion.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/02/2017

[Ntxw]

Lot of reference to MDTs being rare for TX, yet TX has a lot of severe weather. Begs the question -- are Risk Days weighted for the area affected? Does it take more potential for them to issue a MDT for TX than for MN (for example) where severe weather is less common?


Or is it a set parameter like definitions of severe thunderstorms or blizzards?

Moderate and high risk days are rare for southeast and coastal TX. You're thinking of the northern and western half of TX for which MDT occurs nearly every spring is more common. Unless I am mistaken parameters are set by probability of occurance with the nodes of sever weather accordingly.

[cycloneye]

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

Valid 020144Z - 020245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.

SUMMARY...The ongoing severe threat associated with Watch 106 will
likely be focused with a supercell thunderstorm over Coleman County
and nearby thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...KSJT radar data depict a high-precipitation supercell
over Coleman County as of 0130Z, with the overall storm motion
eastward around 15 kt. This storm has possessed a rather broad, but
persistent low/mid-level mesocyclone, in turn favoring this deviant
motion to the east. Additionally, updraft organization has promoted
considerable large-hail growth, with recent MRMS MESH and dual-pol
data suggesting hail diameters occasionally over 2 inches. Indeed, a
report of giant hail was received in Valera, TX at 0112Z.

As cell propagation takes this storm eastward into a plume of higher
surface dew points, a threat for large hail and damaging winds may
persist. However, a cold front is undercutting this supercell,
resulting in slow weakening with time. Occasional large hail may
remain possible with this cell or others developing over the
post-frontal stable layer this evening. As such, convective trends
could require watch extension in space/time over the next 1-2 hours.

..Picca.. 04/02/2017

[South Texas Storms]

So what's everyone's thoughts on the NAM 3K and WRF-ARW models which show the Austin area missing out on a lot of the action? The NAM has a couple of waves moving through at least. I've come to respect those short range models because more times than not they tend to get the general outcome even if timing and specific locations are a bit off. Of course as with all models, they should only be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt. The only reason why I am curious about what others think is they haven't changed a whole lot since yesterday and that tells me that they might have a good grasp of what may happen.

Rain chances have been lowered for this afternoon. Cap is stronger than was expected so not sure that we will see much rain in my area. I'm glad to see showers are increasing across the Hill Country over the last 30 min so maybe we can get some decent rain. I'll be watching closely and may pull out my rain machine to help it along.

I'm not so sure I buy what those models are showing. HRRR, GFS, and the Euro are indicating storms farther south along IH-10. We should know more by this evening.

Good point, EWX has a bit of uncertainty underlying the afternoon discussion. I certainly don't want destructive storms, but would like to see some decent widespread rainfall across the region. It looks like it will be at least a week before we see rain again.

I hear you. This is certainly a tough forecast for south central Texas. Just talked with my coworker about how it's frustrating that some models show nothing, while others show a significant event. This is such a deep and potent trough we have trouble believing we won't see at least some storms as far south as IH-10.

[JDawg512]

Yea I agree, especially since the center of circulation looks to either pass right overhead or close by. The HRRR model posted in the TX/LA severe thread shows storms missing my area completely but you would think we would be in a prime location. I wonder if the dry slotting we had today could have something to do with how the models are running?

[South Texas Storms]

Yea I agree, especially since the center of circulation looks to either pass right overhead or close by. The HRRR model posted in the TX/LA severe thread shows storms missing my area completely but you would think we would be in a prime location. I wonder if the dry slotting we had today could have something to do with how the models are running?

Yeah I think the models see the dry air currently over south central Texas and that's maybe why they are showing the storms weakening when they get here. However I think the dry air will quickly erode as this system approaches.

[JDawg512]

Yea I agree, especially since the center of circulation looks to either pass right overhead or close by. The HRRR model posted in the TX/LA severe thread shows storms missing my area completely but you would think we would be in a prime location. I wonder if the dry slotting we had today could have something to do with how the models are running?

Yeah I think the models see the dry air currently over south central Texas and that's maybe why they are showing the storms weakening when they get here. However I think the dry air will quickly erode as this system approaches.

The latest model updates are finally showing storms hitting the I-35 corridor. Honestly it's looking a bit worrisome. Let's hope it doesn't get too bad.

[TexasF6]

We've got TORWARN'D storms out west. STW Up North. It is coming together just as the SPC predicted. Flash Flooding is a new concern. Tornado Watch until 1pm for Austin, I look for more later. Be safe y'all.

[South Texas Storms]

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be moving across the San Antonio area in about an hour and the Austin area in about 2 hours. The line is currently farther south than many of the models indicated last night. Kinda what I suspected with this potent of a system.