Texas Spring 2017

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: euro well above ave precip Texas next 46 days 2 implications1)No perma drought return 2) combined with warm western gulf Texas/La
TC threat

[TheAustinMan]

@BigJoeBastardi: euro well above ave precip Texas next 46 days 2 implications1)No perma drought return 2) combined with warm western gulf Texas/La
TC threat

Something tells me I shouldn't buy the Texas/LA TC threat, but that's just me

[JDawg512]

A lone storm has popped up over Gillespie County. Won't make it this far but the anvil has blocked the sunset from Austin.

[bubba hotep]

A lone storm has popped up over Gillespie County. Won't make it this far but the anvil has blocked the sunset from Austin.

That storm put on show!

 https://twitter.com/atxwxgirl/status/846518035053776896

[bubba hotep]

The major rain event that the models were showing with the next syatem has faded pretty fast. Looks like maybe an inch or so for most areas but not the flooding rains models were showing last week. Also, as of now, timing looks off and that should limit svr wx threat for the bulk of DFW.

This has been the trend the past 60 days or so. Under-performing qpf events. The Nina-esque atmospheric conditions over parts of the tropical Pacific just won't cut it.

At least until a real WWB coupled with SOI will I buy into a heavy rain event for us. While we are waiting for rain, moderate drought is spreading north of I-20 and less than 1" event won't slow it down.

The 1st part of the month was pretty typical Nina but the pattern is breaking down and the E. Pacific is pretty Nino like with some coupling to the atmosphere. A week Nina March - April looks like this for precipitation:



And things mostly line up with that so far this month (image below doesn't capture the storms from yesterday, I'll try to remember to update it in a few days):



During a weak Nina, things actually get pretty ugly in April:



However, the coming week is almost the exact opposite of what you would expect to see in a Nina pattern:



Obviously, one week doesn't make a pattern but the Pacific looks to continue to support a wetter pattern across Texas beyond week 1:



And models are showing the wetter pattern continuing well into the Spring (the new Euro Weeklies are wild! but this seems like a more realistic outcome):



My post this morning was pretty DFW focused but the heavy rains are just missing DFW more so by randomness than anything. The region is still going to get wet.

[Ntxw]

I'm still in the wait and see camp. As I mentioned until I see real changes in the tropical Pacific, I am hesitant away from the coast. Obviously a week or two of rains doesn't make an overall wet regime, nor does a miss qpf event mean drought. But still in the larger context it has been under-performing and the predictions have been delayed (perhaps it will be right this time). But there is a large coverage of drought in NTX, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas so it is not just a missed system here or there it is a regional lack of sufficient rainfall. The north Pacific NIno-ish pattern is good at inducing storms for events with persistent troughs from the SW, but instead of 2-4" widespread it's hit or miss 0.5-2" for instance without the tropical Pacific connection which shows no signs of the walker cell shifting to a Nino mode.

0z GFS is already backpedaling on amounts for late week. Again unless you live along the I-10 corridor which I am fairly confident they will see excessive rainfall from coastal low formation.

Side note for March DFW is at 0.51" of rainfall. We would need about 3" of rain this week to get back to normal for the month.

[South Texas Storms]

Bubba, where did you get that precipitation anomaly map? I like the look of it!

Great post by the way. And yeah, the latest Euro weeklies run is crazy!

[ronyan]

I found it on Oregon State's PRISM site: http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu
This Month -> Deviation from 30-yr normal

[South Texas Storms]

I found it on Oregon State's PRISM site: http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu
This Month -> Deviation from 30-yr normal

Awesome, thanks!

[aggiecutter]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/846718885294428160

[bubba hotep]

The DFW area could be interesting this afternoon, especially if the warm front is slower. FWD has been highlighting this in the AFDs and now the HRRR is showing some isolated cells in the area this afternoon. The question is are they elevated or can they get rooted in the BL. Soundings are pretty impressive.

ETA: SPC extended the 5% east to DFW with this latest update

[cycloneye]

12z sounding looks very favorable for severe weather in Texas Panhandle.



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/846721691065765891

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Ceilings range from VFR along the coast to MVFR over Houston
terminals and then IFR/LIFR for KCXO/KUTS/KCLL. The GOES 16
difference channel of 3.9-11 micron really does a great job
showing these low ceilings across the area. Based on this imagery,
ceilings should begin to improve the next couple of hours over
the Houston area and points northward. VAD wind profile from the
KHGX 88D only shows 15-25 knots in the lowest levels, but those
winds should increase during the day. This will also allow for
some gusts near 25 knots this afternoon with good mixing. Ceilings
should lift to VFR for most areas but then are expected to
decrease in the evening. A 40-50kt LLJ should maintain strong
winds overnight as ceilings become MVFR again. Wednesday should be
a messy day for aviation given the forecast for widespread
convection. TAFs have VCSH starting at 09Z but look for VCTS/TSRA
beginning late morning Wednesday through the afternoon in future
TAF updates.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper air pattern will bring a couple of stormy
episodes across Southeast Texas over the next seven days. The
first will begin late tonight through Thursday and the second will
occur over the weekend and into Monday night of the upcoming week.
Both systems will bring slight chances for at least isolated
strong thunderstorms to Southeast Texas.

The 06Z NamBufr forecast soundings show a fairly large cap over
the area tonight and early Wednesday morning. Even though this cap
should erode as the upper level storm system moves into the state,
the forecast soundings still showed somewhat of a capping
inversion in place over the southern half of the forecast area on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A strong low-level jet will
develop overhead and help provide strong wind shear ahead of the
main area of storms. The latest Nam12, GFS, and ECMWF all show
better chances for strong storms over the northern half of the
area mainly Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The Storm Prediction
Center as of 3:30 AM had best chances for severe potential
generally along and east of a line from Madisonville to Tomball
and north of a line from Tomball to Cleveland. PWs are forecast to
reach to around 1.7 inches, indicating the potential for at least
locally heavy rainfall.

Following this system, high pressure will bring a brief warm and
dry period Thursday night through Friday night. The next storm
system will then move across the state from late Saturday through
early Monday. Again looking at widespread rain and thunderstorms
with slight chances for isolated strong or severe storms Sunday
and Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall also again appears to be
possible, especially in the ECMWF solution with a surface low
moving up the coastal plain.

40

MARINE...
Moderate southerly winds this morning are expected to increase to
around 20 knots in offshore areas of the Upper Texas Coast later
this afternoon and tonight. Winds should reach 20 to 25 knots
tonight with seas building to rough levels. A small craft advisory
will be issued for these areas for this afternoon and tonight. Winds
and seas gradually decrease Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday
offshore winds develop which will allow for seas to decrease further
for the end of the week. Southerly winds develop again over the
weekend.

Tide levels are about a half foot above normal and will likely
remain elevated for the next couple of days. Offshore winds on
Thursday into Friday may push tides lower.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 79 59 75 / 10 50 80 30 10
Houston (IAH) 85 71 84 67 80 / 10 20 80 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 79 72 77 70 77 / 10 10 60 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[South Texas Storms]

Here's a great link to the new GOES-16 satellite data. This will be fascinating to watch as storms develop today.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

[dhweather]

Here's a great link to the new GOES-16 satellite data. This will be fascinating to watch as storms develop today.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Thank you for sharing this!!

[TheProfessor]

Wow 3K Nam has some pretty intense soundings for Northwest Texas, insane wind profiles. very low LCL and LFC(meaning there isn't a ton of capping on the model) 3000 j/kg CAPE. If anything there might be too much wind shear, but I'm not as familiar with that.

[cycloneye]

Updated SPC graphic still has Moderate Risk.

[bubba hotep]

Updated SPC graphic still has Moderate Risk.

They did slightly expand the 5% Tor to cover most of The DFW area. It matches up pretty much with the SFEF & NCAR ensembles.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/846775249886695425

[Yukon Cornelius]

This time of year always freaks me out a little. I live in the middle of nowhere where there are no tornado sirens anywhere near. Our satellite TV goes out during most storms and usually very little cell phone reception. The only warning systems we have out here are my NOAA weather radio and the iphone emergency alert, when it actually sends the alert on time.