Texas Spring 2017

[Ralph's Weather]

We did manage a freeze yesterday morning at my house.

[1900hurricane]

I have not been appreciating the huge dewpoint depressions. The low humidity air is resulting in constantly chapped lips for me. Personally, I'd rather sweat than that.

[TheProfessor]

I have not been appreciating the huge dewpoint depressions. The low humidity air is resulting in constantly chapped lips for me. Personally, I'd rather sweat than that.

I'm with you, It's one of the things I don't like about Ohio. Good thing is that this past winter there wasn't too dry.

[Ntxw]

Highs will be around 80 this week. Lows in the 50s and 60s a bit more humid. Quite mild for March.

Believe it or not the past 4 days DFW has averaged below normal, however that will quickly be erased the coming 4-5 days.

[bubba hotep]

Highs will be around 80 this week. Lows in the 50s and 60s a bit more humid. Quite mild for March.

Believe it or not the past 4 days DFW has averaged below normal, however that will quickly be erased the coming 4-5 days.

This mid-month warm up was pretty easy to pickup in the longer range. The funny thing, the current MJO evolution would've served use much better in February than now. Stupid MJO lol

However, even with the MJO getting lazy things will still be driven by tropical convection. IO convection-> Retracted Pacific jet-> WC trough-> Svr wx season cranks up towards last part of March.

[Portastorm]

Disappointing that we have such mild, benign weather right now here in Austin. The streets are teeming with hipsters and tourists for south-by.

I always hope for cold rain during SXSW. The less they enjoy themselves here, the less they want to move here.

[gboudx]

Disappointing that we have such mild, benign weather right now here in Austin. The streets are teeming with hipsters and tourists for south-by.

I always hope for cold rain during SXSW. The less they enjoy themselves here, the less they want to move here.

[Portastorm]

Yep, that's me alright!

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:



Yep, that's me alright!

I hear ya Porta!! However we do have a former S2Ker and his band performing on 6th street tomorrow night for SXSW. Unfortunately for you it appears the weather will be pretty good in your area for all the SXSWers.

[JDawg512]

Disappointing that we have such mild, benign weather right now here in Austin. The streets are teeming with hipsters and tourists for south-by.

I always hope for cold rain during SXSW. The less they enjoy themselves here, the less they want to move here.

The more rain we get during SXSW the more I'm out enjoying the sights and sounds, although I can't deny that the last few days have been nice, especially this past Sunday. Today has been the only day this week that I haven't been Downtown. Had to take care of some things but will be back out early tomorrow for the game expo.

GFS shows some more active weather from my birthday through the end of the month. I hope it pans out because I want it to be wet!!

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/842381517913501696




I could use the green extending further into Texas, but this is a seasonal forecast I can get behind!

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/842381517913501696




I could use the green extending further into Texas, but this is a seasonal forecast I can get behind!

I wouldn't be surprised if April anomalies get portions of Texas far enough ahead to carry the green forward through the period.

[Ntxw]

DFW is running 1.63" below normal for March in terms of rainfall. Late week system is trending a little further east with the heavier precip as far as the GFS and CMC compared to previous runs. To date this year is near normal still. I still don't think the tropical Pacific connection is there for a widespread heavy rain event for many of us in the next 7-10 days. As been the past month, closer to the Texas coast the better off you will be.

[Brent]

DFW is running 1.63" below normal for March in terms of rainfall. Late week system is trending a little further east with the heavier precip as far as the GFS and CMC compared to previous runs. To date this year is near normal still. I still don't think the tropical Pacific connection is there for a widespread heavy rain event for many of us in the next 7-10 days. As been the past month, closer to the Texas coast the better off you will be.

I'm watching the timeframe at the end of the month... March 29th plus a couple days when my parents visit. I'd about guarantee heavy rain then. It's still in fantasy land but every run has shown some kind of rain setup then.

[South Texas Storms]

Looking forward to the wet weather pattern returning. This week has been nice...but I really miss the rain!

Late March into April looks active on the long range models. Hope they verify!

[bubba hotep]

March has started off dry for N. Texas and most of the the Southern Plains but that isn't surprising given the strong +QBO. April should turn much wetter for N. Texas up into Oklahoma but W. Texas, the Panhandles, and New Mexico may continue to stay dryer than normal. As the Pacific jet starts to relax and troughing returns to the WC the Pacific waveguide will allow RWE to assault Texas. However, the first system or two might not have optimal moisture for heavier rains.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/842587745373499392

[bubba hotep]

Things look pretty lame for the next week or so. The models do seem to agree on a significant system in the longer range but we know how that has been working out lol

This system is starting to come into focus but still a good bit of uncertainty. FWD has chimed in:



and it is lighting up the WSI index:



The GEFS reforecast is highlighting the same time period but isn't as aggressive as other guidance.

[Ntxw]

ENSO update. SOI will rise the next week or two as we lose the bigger negatives in Feb being that it is a moving signal. Alone it is noisy but it context with other signals there is still no building yet of an El Nino. Much of the warming in the eastern basin is far too shallow and the walker cell circulation has not moved from the IO-Maritime continent. Within believable range another big burst of cooling trade winds is in the horizon, CFSv2 is pushing west winds back a bit more after early April.



There just can't be forging of El Nino until you get a succession of moderate to strong westerly wind bursts to slosh the Pacific and down-well a deep pool of above normal anomalies to flatten the thermocline or you will get an aborted event like 2012. Like with anything else, to get a good event of any kind there has to be a decent foundation in the Ocean and it's just not there yet nor is it building at this time. Tao/Triton buoys verifies this and we are in a state of neutral looking to remain so this spring.

[Ntxw]

That said about ENSO, I do agree with bubba and STS once in April the pattern turns wetter. The NPAC pattern will resemble more El Nino-like with the stronger Aleutian low vs present Aleutian ridge, and we get a west/southwest trough for a time. This is ideal set up for more widespread rains in Texas.



A very wet pattern seems to be in store once we turn the calendar

[bubba hotep]

Euro continues to be slower than the GFS with next weeks system and it has a nasty streaky qpf signal coming off a very sharp dryline.

ETA: 18z GFS came in slower and is now more in line with the Euro on timing