Texas Winter 2016-2017

[wxman57]

Any news or word on that cold that the models were showing last week?

As expected, the cold air isn't materializing. What cold air that moves out of Canada moves east not south. You'll have a better chance of hitting 80 than 32 over the next couple of weeks. A couple of cold fronts may move through, but return flow begins soon after each frontal passage.

[Brent]

GFS has nothing below upper 30s next week up here zzzz winter has been over imo

[bubba hotep]

Any news or word on that cold that the models were showing last week?

As expected, the cold air isn't materializing. What cold air that moves out of Canada moves east not south. You'll have a better chance of hitting 80 than 32 over the next couple of weeks. A couple of cold fronts may move through, but return flow begins soon after each frontal passage.

Yep, climo starts getting ugly fast. The Euro and GFS are coming into better agreement on the MJO and are matching up better in the long range. Both show a variation of this:



The Euro EPS is actually much colder across Canada, no early spring for them. However, the SE ridge never relaxes enough to allow for a cold dump. There are some cold fronts and below normal temps but nothing to get excited about.

[Brent]

let's just enjoy the fact it may only hit the low 80s the next couple weeks... we'll be wishing for that in a few short months.

[Golf7070]

The part im confused on is the mjo has been moving through the charts but it still dont get cold for us. What is the main culprit? Is it a multitude of things that caused such a warm winter? Is it tropical forcing too far west?

[bubba hotep]

let's just enjoy the fact it may only hit the low 80s the next couple weeks... we'll be wishing for that in a few short months.

Nah, cool El Nino summer on tap lol! However, last summer wasn't so bad and it took a very late heat wave to push the 100 degree days up to normal. I've given up on betting on anything but warmth in the long range until that bet bust. Sad story.

[South Texas Storms]

let's just enjoy the fact it may only hit the low 80s the next couple weeks... we'll be wishing for that in a few short months.

Nah, cool El Nino summer on tap lol! However, last summer wasn't so bad and it took a very late heat wave to push the 100 degree days up to normal. I've given up on betting on anything but warmth in the long range until that bet bust. Sad story.

But that's ok as long as we continue to get lots of rain! Rain is a good thing

[bubba hotep]

The part im confused on is the mjo has been moving through the charts but it still dont get cold for us. What is the main culprit? Is it a multitude of things that caused such a warm winter? Is it tropical forcing too far west?

The problem, the MJO isn't a catch all and the background state is so warm right now. There is just no way around that. Even so, MJO P6-8 aren't really cold looks for Texas in Feb, so add in the warm base state and the recent warmth isn't surprising at all. The warmth also matches up nicely with the recently extended Pacific jet and East Asia Mt torque. The best last chance for Texas, the MJO rotates around to P3 and randomness rolls in our favor and the cold in Canada finds a way to dump south. The best time frame for this is probably March 6th - 12th.

[weatherdude1108]

Both my parents and my brother in San Antonio were spared last night's wrath of rotating storms. My parents' electricity was out for several hours. They got heavy rain and wind with some hail. My brother, who lives just north of SA airport, had lots of wind-driven rain with hail. No damage.

A frIend on FB said her neighborhood near Alamo Heights got hit pretty hard. Their house was spared, but a few houses down, their roofs were damaged and windows blown out. She was outside smoking and noticed it turning purple, and sounded like a freight train coming. Wild stuff last night! Unexpected based on parameters and what weather service/SPC said about weakening trend.

[Quixotic]

El Niño, eh? I'll go contrarian and bet on negative/weak La Niña next winter.

[bubba hotep]

El Niño, eh? I'll go contrarian and bet on negative/weak La Niña next winter.

Now we are betting? lol I'm going with '09/10 as my top analog for next winter.

[Quixotic]

El Niño, eh? I'll go contrarian and bet on negative/weak La Niña next winter.

Now we are betting? lol I'm going with '09/10 as my top analog for next winter.

Going all in I see! Blocking will be more favorable than the past couple of years. I know that is damning with faint praise, but with low solar and a -qbo we could start seeing our old friends -ao and -nao again.

[Brent]

let's just enjoy the fact it may only hit the low 80s the next couple weeks... we'll be wishing for that in a few short months.

Nah, cool El Nino summer on tap lol! However, last summer wasn't so bad and it took a very late heat wave to push the 100 degree days up to normal. I've given up on betting on anything but warmth in the long range until that bet bust. Sad story.

This will be my 3rd summer in Texas and I just quit expecting a "cool" summer. This is Dallas, I truly don't think those exist anymore... I just hope it keeps raining well into the spring so maybe it won't be too terrible either(kind of like the last two summers, it takes longer to get truly hot).

oh and I'm so done with winter analogs unless they involve warmth.

[Brent]

Euro pretty boring too... lows around 40 this weekend at DFW, highs in the 50s Saturday and near 70 Sunday, then it warms right back up and could push 80 one more time next Tuesday(the GFS agrees) before we move to the spring thread lol because why not. Hints of a rain event around March 1st on both the GFS and Euro

I just think a lot of the reason nothing has been favorable this winter is because warmth has dominated almost everywhere.

[wxman57]

Interesting 06Z GFS run for NE TX. I wonder how many future runs it will take to go from ice there to highs near 80 on March 7?

[gatorcane]

If the long-range GFS would ever get something right for a change....

[Yukon Cornelius]

What's interesting with that GFS model is I was talking to an old farmer today and of course the weather came up. He said that it will be cold March 7. You really can't argue with an 80 year old farmer about weather forecasting.

[Portastorm]

What's interesting with that GFS model is I was talking to an old farmer today and of course the weather came up. He said that it will be cold March 7. You really can't argue with an 80 year old farmer about weather forecasting.

Those old timers usually know a lot more than any computer model.

[wxman57]

It appears that it only took a single run of the GFS to go from snow/ice in the D-FW area on March 7th to warm southerly winds...

[Brent]

DFW is headed easily for warmest February on record by almost 2 degrees...