Texas Winter 2016-2017

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated quantitative precipitation forecast has indeed shifted somewhat West placing SE Texas in the 4 inch+ range.

[bubba hotep]

Ugh... Ugly SE ridge showing up in the longer range now. Hard to get cold into Texas with that monster lurking.

[Tireman4]

Gosh darn heck fire. It is hot out there. Ughh.

[Tireman4]

Side note: Some incredible warmth in the upper midwest. I have friends in Wisconsin saying ice fishing tournaments canceled, little snow left on the ground in mid February. The next several days they will be in the 50s and near or breaking daily records. Their normal highs are in the upper 20s. There has been some extreme warmth this winter (and last winter) across North America. It has not been just one locale or another, but huge swaths of the continent when it has been warm.



That being said, towards the end of the month North America will be cold except for the east coast

And Alaska has been brutal this winter

[Texas Snow]

I'm a cold and snow lover but I ain't gonna lie, sitting out by the pool with a tasty cold beverage isn't a terrible way to spend a February Saturday afternoon.

[JDawg512]

It is way too hot. I may not be particularly fond of extreme cold but I definitely don't like it this warm at this time of the year. At least we are 24 hours or so away from getting the wet stuff!!!!

Foregoing working in the yard today, will wait until tomorrow.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Too dang warm today. Hopefully the pattern change and colder weather actually verifies. I hate to say it but I'm not holding my breath on it.

[Brent]

Too dang warm today. Hopefully the pattern change and colder weather actually verifies. I hate to say it but I'm not holding my breath on it.

Same here honestly I'm not convinced and time is ticking

[TheProfessor]

It feels so good outside here, I was able to go outside and do sprints today. I kinda want it to stay like this.

[dhweather]

Unbelievable (not) - the GFS is backing away from the big cold front around the 5th of March. Ensembles are trending westward with the 500mb trof. There is still cold air in southern Canada by March 6th, but no guarantee that Texas will receive the brunt of the cold. It'll likely be another glancing blow.

Heard something on the news yesterday about the warmth this winter. If we hit 80 today, then we'll have hit 80 or more on more days than in any previous winter on record. Time to head out on the bikes in a few hours for a 5-hr ride in shorts/short sleeves.

As bad as the GFS has been "two weeks out" this winter, you may as well toss in a CAT 5 IN THE GULF!

[Brent]

DFW tied its record for most 80s in a winter today... and decent chance it gets broken this week

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, do you have an idea why this winter is so warm, especially with mjo on move through the phase chart? What phase is good for us? I'm now confused and clueless

[Brent]

4km NAM has a dry slot over DFW and Austin lol with heavier bands west and east of the metros

[TheProfessor]

4km NAM has a dry slot over DFW and Austin lol with heavier bands west and east of the metros

I'd wait to see what the HRRR has, the 4K NAM at least for me hasn't been great for precip. It's way underdone radar simulation, especially when snow just barely misses me.

[Brent]

4km NAM has a dry slot over DFW and Austin lol with heavier bands west and east of the metros

I'd wait to see what the HRRR has, the 4K NAM at least for me hasn't been great for precip. It's way underdone radar simulation, especially when snow just barely misses me.

GFS and Euro continue to have big differences... GFS has just over a half inch at DFW while the Euro has almost 2 inches... crazy for within 24 hours.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Id gladly take no rain. We are still muddy and saturated from the rain last week. I'll trade someone rain for cold.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

HRRR is in range now. Lots of training rain for Central Texas, south to north. There is one heavy band leading a very slow moving front, then decent precip rates behind that main line. It reaches the edge of SE Texas at the end of the 18 hour time frame.

[TheAustinMan]

We're going to have to watch for the development of thunderstorms (with some potentially developing into mature supercells) along the US 281 corridor this afternoon as the shortwave trough/cutoff upper-level low approaches. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk for severe weather for today between US 277 and US 59 / US 77 / I-35, with 15% hail/wind probabilities dominating the slight risk with a 2% tornado risk and 5% tornado risk for a localized region around Wichita Falls.


Source: SPC State Categorical Outlook Directory

[Portastorm]

For south central Texas today it'll be the classic threat of discrete supercell formation in the unstable airmass ahead of a frontal trough. Sometimes these materialize and sometimes they don't. But when they do, look out below!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah, they are saying the air is divergent at the 300MB level, def will allow some monster storms to develop.