Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Texas Snowman]

I've mentioned on a few occasions the various early, mid and late March snowfalls that have occurred up here in Grayson County.

But I'll raise the stakes a little bit more. Because it's not just up here along the Red River and it's not just early on in the month either.

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From Fort Worth NWS and various media reports:

March 20-21, 2010: An unusually strong and cold upper level low slowly moved along the Red River Valley on March 20 and 21. Heavy snowfall occurred on the backside of the low with measurable snowfall occurring mainly to the north of I-20. A very localized and heavy band of snow developed during the early morning hours of the 21st, dumping 5 to 9 inches of snow across Collin County. Some locations just 20 miles to the southwest of this band of snow only picked up 1 inch. Snow continued into the early afternoon hours on the 21st across East Texas before ending.

April 7-8, 2007: Snow fell in areas south of I-20 during the daytime hours of the Saturday before Easter. The highest amounts of 3 to5 inches were found in a band from Comanche and Goldthwaite to Waco and Temple/Killeen. Bluebonnets were already in bloom when this snow fell, making for unique pictures of this event.

April 7, 2007: Same event, in East Texas, some areas received two to four inches of snow.

March 27, 2005: An upper level low produced a very localized narrow band of 1-2 inches of snow from Graham to Weatherford to Benbrook to Cleburne in the predawn hours of Easter morning. Most areas outside the snow band saw only moderate to heavy rain.

April 5, 1996: One of the heaviest April snowstorms on record for Texas. Abilene had 9.3 inches and Sweetwater had 18 inches of snow.

[Ntxw]

Can't help but feel a little excited.



Forecast during the DFW 2 week snow blitz in 2015

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Go back to my fall post about PNA and my argument to someone on here that even a slightly positive PNA typically isn't good for us in Winter.

With that said we don't want an anomalous negative PNA either.

[Ntxw]

Go back to my fall post about PNA and my argument to someone on here that even a slightly positive PNA typically isn't good for us in Winter.

With that said we don't want an anomalous negative PNA either.

I'd take my chances with any -PNA. Especially if you couple it with a good -EPO, easier for cold to drain into the trough and push. +PNA you miss and you're sizzling. You get +PNA and wxman57 will tell you all day, everyday it's not that cold in Canada, because it brings heat to WCAN.

[bubba hotep]

Time to jump in and help along the good juju being pushed by Ntxw and bubba hotep.

March 9, 1915 and March 3, 1965 -- both days saw two-inch snowfalls in Austin. Sure it's rare for March but considering all of the nutty things which have been happening in our world the last few years ... well heck, this is as nutty any of that. It could happen again!

For N. Texas, '08 and '05 were neg and neutral MEI years that delivered in March, in recent memory (or so I'm told, I didn't move here until '10/11)

[Ntxw]

Time to jump in and help along the good juju being pushed by Ntxw and bubba hotep.

March 9, 1915 and March 3, 1965 -- both days saw two-inch snowfalls in Austin. Sure it's rare for March but considering all of the nutty things which have been happening in our world the last few years ... well heck, this is as nutty any of that. It could happen again!

For N. Texas, '08 and '05 were neg and neutral MEI years that delivered in March, in recent memory (or so I'm told, I didn't move here until '10/11)

2013-2014 March can be added to that list

[Brent]

it's nearly 70 degrees in Chicago(as warm as it is in DFW) and they haven't seen snow in many weeks...

This is going to be some flip if it does happen.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS carves a mid continent trough, storm after storm (fronts attached) laying snow cover.

Storm #1 puts snow in the northern plains

Storm #2 a bit further south in the central plains (and Chicago )

Storm #3...?

[Ntxw]

Amid all this, east coast (northeast) is much above normal...just about spring for them

[dhweather]

I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...

You're such a nice fellow, even when you sound like you're trolling me! Maybe I'll buy you lunch if you come to Austin next year for the AMS Conference.

Knuckle sandwich?

[JayDT]

Im currently in Colorado, it's been extremely warm here too these past few days.. In about 1 or 2 weeks ill be going to Oregon.. Im wondering what my chances are of getting some cold & snow here in Colorado & in Oregon with this next (hopefully) big pattern change in the long range models?

[JayDT]

it's nearly 70 degrees in Chicago(as warm as it is in DFW) and they haven't seen snow in many weeks...

This is going to be some flip if it does happen.

Yesterday it was 72 degrees here where I am in Colorado.. Looks like i brought some of the warmth from Dallas with me.... Just my luck

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile in Los Angeles, videos everywhere of rain. Tens of thousands without power, water water and more water. Hundreds of flights canceled or delayed. This is their excitement weather! Downtown Los Angeles has picked up about 2" of rain so far.


I don't recommend this but, maybe it's their version of fun in the snow (rain)?

[bubba hotep]

00z 4k NAM has some interesting looking soundings in N. Texas for late Sunday afternoon. Looks like some minor VBV but otherwise there might be something to watch. I wonder if SPC will upgrade to D2 Slight?

[wxman57]

Unbelievable (not) - the GFS is backing away from the big cold front around the 5th of March. Ensembles are trending westward with the 500mb trof. There is still cold air in southern Canada by March 6th, but no guarantee that Texas will receive the brunt of the cold. It'll likely be another glancing blow.

Heard something on the news yesterday about the warmth this winter. If we hit 80 today, then we'll have hit 80 or more on more days than in any previous winter on record. Time to head out on the bikes in a few hours for a 5-hr ride in shorts/short sleeves.

[bubba hotep]

Someone is going to bust bad, the 00z Euro has nearly 2" more rain at DFW than the 00z GFS for this next system.

[Ntxw]

Side note: Some incredible warmth in the upper midwest. I have friends in Wisconsin saying ice fishing tournaments canceled, little snow left on the ground in mid February. The next several days they will be in the 50s and near or breaking daily records. Their normal highs are in the upper 20s. There has been some extreme warmth this winter (and last winter) across North America. It has not been just one locale or another, but huge swaths of the continent when it has been warm.



That being said, towards the end of the month North America will be cold except for the east coast

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS refuses to fold and keeps the axis of heaviest rain in far East Texas. Wonder if the Euro will hold with axis closer to I35?

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS refuses to fold and keeps the axis of heaviest rain in far East Texas. Wonder if the Euro will hold with axis closer to I35?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_20.png

Notice though that it's trending slower with the system and is therefore slowly shifting heavier rainfall westward.

The UKMET is quite wet along IH-35 and even has some pretty good totals west of there. Link: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is 2 - 3" for all of DFW