Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, is this just a temporary thing or is this a start of a colder regime due to weakening pattern in pacific from tropical forcing and other things?

It's the progression of the MJO once it's past P8 which is the lower angular momentum. P1-P3 tend to be the EPO block regions, but given wavelengths are shorter as we head towards spring it's hard to lock in any pattern for a long duration. Still may see some cold yet if it verifies.

Bigger story right now is the surplus of rainfall we have seen this year, along with severe weather potentials.

[Portastorm]

The larger anomalies for rainfall have occurred west of I-35 based on the 30-day data maps I just looked at on the CPC site. There are some small areas east of I-35 which have seen slightly more than normal precip but not anything significant. Perhaps this next system coming late this weekend will push those "above normal" percentages into a higher realm.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

The larger anomalies for rainfall have occurred west of I-35 based on the 30-day data maps I just looked at on the CPC site. There are some small areas east of I-35 which have seen slightly more than normal precip but not anything significant. Perhaps this next system coming late this weekend will push those "above normal" percentages into a higher realm.

Both Mabry and Bergstrom are running 50% greater than normal total winter rainfall. Bergstrom is almost double, for winter being considered dry season that is significant. Percentages are comparable when looking at year to date as well.

DFW is sitting nearly 6 inches in 2017, as this time last year it was a little over an inch. Fast start

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow:

The larger anomalies for rainfall have occurred west of I-35 based on the 30-day data maps I just looked at on the CPC site. There are some small areas east of I-35 which have seen slightly more than normal precip but not anything significant. Perhaps this next system coming late this weekend will push those "above normal" percentages into a higher realm.

Both Mabry and Bergstrom are running 50% greater than normal total winter rainfall. Bergstrom is almost double, for winter being considered dry season that is significant. Percentages are comparable when looking at year to date as well.

DFW is sitting nearly 6 inches in 2017, as this time last year it was a little over an inch. Fast start

Looks like DFW is off to a Top 10 start and the 06z GFS has another 3" from this next system.

[CaptinCrunch]

Another strong upper level low over northern Mexico will approach the area late this coming weekend, then provide increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by Sunday night and continuing through Monday and possibly Tuesday for all of North and Central Texas. It's still too soon to diagnose the exact storm track, along with the potential for severe storms or flooding. Stay tuned to forecast updates as we get closer to the weekend.


February 2017, 1st. thru 14th.

[TEMPERATURE DATA] --------- [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 59.3 ----- TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.51
DPTR FM NORMAL: +11.0 ------- DPTR FM NORMAL: +0.25

[gboudx]

Here's jeff's take no the next system:

It is early…but signs are ominous for early next week.

Powerful upper level storm system moving into the west coast this weekend will arrive into TX late this weekend/early next week. This will potentially bring a high impact weather event to TX.

Moisture return off a very warm Gulf of Mexico (a result of this very mild winter) will begin in earnest Saturday into Sunday. Models are showing “off the charts” moisture levels in place by late Sunday with very impressive PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches or some 275% of normal over SE TX and nearly 400% of normal over N TX. To give an idea of how rare this would be…such moisture values are more common in the June-October time period…and if this actually materializes would potentially be record values for this time of year. The upper level system digs deep into MX and then progresses across TX bringing strong jet stream dynamics across this moisture plume. Lift and instability looks good and there could be the potential for sustained convective training with near summertime rainfall rates. WPC day 6/7 QPF is on the extreme side for such a long term forecast and hits a corridor from Galveston Island southward with 7-9 inches and widespread 5-7 inches over much of SE TX.

This system would also likely have a severe weather threat.

It is way too early to have much confidence in the rainfall totals or placement as well as the severe threat, but this system deserves close attention over the next several days.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

The larger anomalies for rainfall have occurred west of I-35 based on the 30-day data maps I just looked at on the CPC site. There are some small areas east of I-35 which have seen slightly more than normal precip but not anything significant. Perhaps this next system coming late this weekend will push those "above normal" percentages into a higher realm.

Both Mabry and Bergstrom are running 50% greater than normal total winter rainfall. Bergstrom is almost double, for winter being considered dry season that is significant. Percentages are comparable when looking at year to date as well.

DFW is sitting nearly 6 inches in 2017, as this time last year it was a little over an inch. Fast start

And roughly 30 miles ESE, we have 3.71 for the year. Not complaining, just noting what a difference 30 miles can make.

[srainhoutx]

While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what our sensible weather will bring early next week, the afternoon GFS solution suggests 300% above normal moisture values while the ECMWF suggests 400% above normal values across portions of Central, SE and East Texas. The flood threat is slowly increasing.

[Portastorm]

While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what our sensible weather will bring early next week, the afternoon GFS solution suggests 300% above normal moisture values while the ECMWF suggests 400% above normal values across portions of Central, SE and East Texas. The flood threat is slowly increasing.

I'll tell you what ... if the upper level low maintains its structural integrity and comes through Texas that low in latitude ... look out! We've had some very ugly weather in years past in similar setups with moisture values being off the charts like that. We all should keep a very close eye on things for late in the weekend into next week.

[1900hurricane]

The system as it is modeled now reminds me somewhat of the early March system in Louisiana from last year.

[PTrackerLA]

The system as it is modeled now reminds me somewhat of the early March system in Louisiana from last year.

Starting to notice that too. Looks like someone from SE TX to South LA is going to get a heck of a lot of rain. Luckily we can handle several inches of rain as we are running a nearly 5" deficit just since January 1st.

[TheProfessor]

Went to go eat dinner and I saw some snow falling, wasn't expecting any precip today. It's going to be 60 degrees on Saturday. This winter reminds me of 2011-2012. I'm glad I wasn't back home this winter, My allergies would have been terrible. I got Pneumonia in early 2012 because of that. I definitely hope I don't get pneumonia this year, I can't imagine having pneumonia while taking boundary layer climatology. I've been getting a lot of ear infections this winter though, same thing happened in 2011-2012. I'm ready for spring, I'll be running this weekend if I'm feeling well, I'd like for it to just stay warm.

[wxman57]

I see that somebody left the Canadian door open while I was in Louisiana. Time to warm things back up!

Interesting storm system for next Monday. Don't need any more tornadoes down here.

[Ntxw]

It ain't over until the fat lady sings and she hasn't sung yet




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/831981320691732482

[bubba hotep]

The system as it is modeled now reminds me somewhat of the early March system in Louisiana from last year.

You aren't the only one

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/832066415972728833

[bubba hotep]

I see that somebody left the Canadian door open while I was in Louisiana. Time to warm things back up!

Interesting storm system for next Monday. Don't need any more tornadoes down here.

The WSI index has shown some promise in the longer range but SPC is still going with "predictability too low" which seems like a good strategy.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Might be a bit early but the SAI index, can we chalk this one up as a loss? We had a period where cold anomalies built up in Canada a few times, led to two different freeze events for us here in SE Tx, but again, the SAI didnt really impress me. I initially thought it led to more blocking or a -NAO later on in the winter, but it seems the greatest impact this year was early on in the season. Obviously SOOO many factors at play in the weather. Any input on this?

I feel the pacific threw us for a loop this winter. Highly unpredictable.

[Ntxw]

Might be a bit early but the SAI index, can we chalk this one up as a loss? We had a period where cold anomalies built up in Canada a few times, led to two different freeze events for us here in SE Tx, but again, the SAI didnt really impress me. I initially thought it led to more blocking or a -NAO later on in the winter, but it seems the greatest impact this year was early on in the season. Obviously SOOO many factors at play in the weather. Any input on this?

I feel the pacific threw us for a loop this winter. Highly unpredictable.

SAI's correlation with the AO has been really bad. We were better off going by solar activity.Also can't dismiss the fact that Super El Nino's have lingering effects in the oceans and atmosphere for years no matter how subtle.

[Brent]

I really can't believe El nino may be coming right back... I still feel a lot of this messed up pattern is leftovers from the last one...

[bubba hotep]

I really can't believe El nino may be coming right back... I still feel a lot of this messed up pattern is leftovers from the last one...

That is a pretty good guess. The super nino data set is too small but they appear to really mix things up long term. One possible saving grace, if the QBO does flip then that should help keep this coming nino in check.