Texas Winter 2016-2017

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose alluded to La Nina now being over, and El Nino to making another return.

La Niña is over. That is what the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center stated Thursday in their monthly El Niño/La Niña update. It only lasted for a few months but recent observations indicate the Pacific appears to have shifted back to a neutral state; neither La Niña nor El Niño.

In Thursday's report, CPC forecasters indicated that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are still slightly below normal, but they have warmed past the threshold for La Nina. In fact, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of South America have become much warmer than normal.

Stay tuned for additional updates on the possible development of El Niño over the next couple of months.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[wxman57]

Here's something to cheer y'all up - snow all across Texas tonight! OK, maybe not real snow, but the full moon in February is called the "Snow Moon". Plus, you'll see a penumbral eclipse as the moon rises. That's the lighter part of the Earth's shadow, but you'll still be able to tell the difference (if the clouds aren't too thick).

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2017/02/snow_moon_february_2017_penumbral_eclipse_to_darke.html

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/feb-10th-penumbral-lunar-eclipse/

[Ntxw]

DFW is +10F for February which means we will likely finish top 10 warmest winters, possibly top 5

[Rgv20]

Quite a depressing ending to winter!

Early Morning discussion from the NWS in Brownsville

Largely kept the inherited max T`s for
Saturday, with forecast highs of 87 at BRO, 90 at HRL, and 93 for
MFE. Records at HRL and MFE will at least be flirted with, and heat
indices across the mid- and Upper Valley will reach the mid-90s.
Some 95F temp readings are likely in Starr and Zapata counties near
Falcon Lake. ECM guidance had temps approaching 100F (!) out there
for Saturday, but won`t "go there" just yet.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like a nice rainstorm event setting up this weekend through early next week in the EWX region.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 102113
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
313 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)...

Continued main highlight today and tomorrow will be the well-above
normal temperatures with near to record breaking high temperatures
likely Saturday even after a cloudy start.

Ample low-level moisture continues to stream into the region from the
south as dewpoints have increased into the low to mid 60s across the
Coastal Plains and into the 50s for the Rio Grande Plains. Despite
the early clouds and patchy fog this morning, the southwest flow in
the mid-levels and adequate mixing this afternoon has allowed for
temperatures to reach into the 70s and even near 80 in some
locations. Clouds will fill back in quickly this evening and remain
well intact overnight again. A few areas of patchy fog will be
possible again tomorrow morning with the smallest of chances for
light mist/drizzle but this will be of little impact and will not
include it in the weather wording overnight. BUFR soundings of the
GFS/NAM suggest a similar mix-out tomorrow as low-level winds shift
more southwesterly and westerly. This flow direction will allow for
a nice warm up with record highs quite achievable. Current forecast
for KAUS is one degree above the record and would tie the record at
KSAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Main weather focus remains centered on Monday through Tuesday as
this will be the best widespread rain chances the region has seen in
some time. Rainfall totals starting late Sunday through Tuesday
afternoon could reach upwards of 2-3 inches with locally heavier
pockets depending on exact weather evolution.

By late weekend a strong cut-off mid- and upper-level low is
projected to be over the Gulf of California while an upstream ridge
builds over Texas. Deep south to southwest flow will occur and this
will result in higher amounts of Pacific moisture streaming in aloft.
Coincidentally, a stronger longwave trough across the Great Lakes
and very strong surface high in the Plains will force a cold front
into the north half of the region Sunday afternoon. Isentropic
upglide will be weak at first Sunday but will strengthen conjointly
with deeper saturation and mid-level moisture flux to aid in more
light to moderate rain showers Sunday night through the day Monday.
GFS and EC solutions of the cut-off low position through Monday and
Tuesday remain at odds with EC more north while the GFS is slightly
slower and more south. GFS solution produces more QPF as slightly
stronger dynamics, jet energy, and synoptic lift are able to combine
with the already ongoing isentropic upglide. The GEM and UKMET appear
to be more in the GFS camp along with stronger GFS ensemble support
and have weighted forecast towards the GFS solution. The strongest
synoptic lift looks to arrive early Tuesday morning at the same time
of low-level cyclogenesis development occurs over the region to near
the Texas coast. If the PWAT surge of 1.5-1.6" occurs and the surface
low is farther north on the front over the region, this could spell
a heavy rain and thunderstorm band to shift over the region. If the
low is farther south and east, the heavier shower activity could be
shifted closer to the coast. Will need to monitor the trends of the
frontal convergence and surface low-development for most likely
placement of the heavier rain banding. Have placed locally heavy rain
potential during Tuesday morning however for central and eastern
areas, given the continued GFS signal.

Synoptic lift will decrease with the surface low finally opening up
and shifting east Wednesday. Clearer, dry, and cooler conditions are
expected through mid to late week. A weak Pacific front could near
the region next weekend but rain chances do not look to great at
this time due to weak forcing.

[Brent]

DFW is +10F for February which means we will likely finish top 10 warmest winters, possibly top 5

Back to back insanely warm winters.... crazy. Where does it end?

[Ntxw]

DFW is +10F for February which means we will likely finish top 10 warmest winters, possibly top 5

Back to back insanely warm winters.... crazy. Where does it end?

Summer, Fall, and Winter lately if you predict warmer than normal you will be right 4/5 times. The only season that has seen a decent amount of near normal or slightly below normal is Spring.

[bubba hotep]

Some ridiculous heat across W. Texas, New Mexico, CO, etc...

[Texas Snow]

Never give up fellow snow lovers. Never give up...

[Cheyenne ridge]

Dear wxman57.Could you turn down thermostat just a tad in Cheyenne.77degrees in February is just a little ridiculous sir

[wxman57]

Dear wxman57.Could you turn down thermostat just a tad in Cheyenne.77degrees in February is just a little ridiculous sir

It's out of my hands, there's nothing I can do. I was hitting the "up" button so much on the thermostat that I broke it. It's now stuck at 80+...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dear wxman57.Could you turn down thermostat just a tad in Cheyenne.77degrees in February is just a little ridiculous sir

It's out of my hands, there's nothing I can do. I was hitting the "up" button so much on the thermostat that I broke it. It's now stuck at 80+...

If you like the heat wxman57 take a holiday down to my old stamping grounds. 87F is a nice day.



46C =114.8F and thats on the coast with sea-breeze.

[Golf7070]

Bubba, why are we having the strong pac jet this winter into the west coast? Is this normal? Why did we have the cold shots early in winter but now they are non existent. Anything change.

[Golf7070]

Does anyone know where I can get a gfs archive site to look at past model runs? It don't have to be way out there. Just 240hrs in

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Weak La nina and warming 1+2 region. Worst case scenario. I think march will be cooler and much wet for us though. Unfortunately, hard to get snow in march.

[South Texas Storms]

Does anyone know where I can get a gfs archive site to look at past model runs? It don't have to be way out there. Just 240hrs in

Here you go: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[bubba hotep]

More ugly incoming today...

[bubba hotep]

Bubba, why are we having the strong pac jet this winter into the west coast? Is this normal? Why did we have the cold shots early in winter but now they are non existent. Anything change.

Deep tropical convection is a known driver of the Pacific jet with the MJO being a somewhat well understood driver. However, other tropical-extratropical interactions that are driven by deep convection are not as well understood when it comes to driving the Pacific jet. ENSO certainly plays a role and -ENSO periods are more likely to produce the deep cold outbreaks that we saw earlier in the winter that were driven by Pacific jet retraction, -PNA and big +EPO. Once again, you can trace a lot of that back to deep convection in the tropical Pacific. The biggest difference from earlier in the winter and recently has been the active MJO. I still firmly believe, that if the MJO had stayed incoherent then we would've seen another big -EPO driven cold dump during this first part of February. We will probably still see some colder wx by the end of Feb and into March but it is impossible to say what kind of anomalies we might see. The best bet is probably to bet on warmth lol

[Ntxw]

A important factor has been the north Pacific. The big +PDO signal back in November encouraged the cold tongue through the strong jet. In short, while the deep tropics resembled more Nina the first half, the second half the north Pacific +PDO/El Nino like pattern took hold as the Nina faded. This was the same pattern that occured last winter during the super Nino

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Like blend of 4km WRF and ECWMF on New England. Gotta love 4km WRF in Lubbock, 90 today Snowstorm on way