Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Neg tilted trough with boiling warm ( for time of year) N gulf feeding low level inflow, helping with severe weather outbreak...

[gatorcane]

where did winter go for Texas? Latest ECMWF is depressing for cold-weather lovers for sure.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSHouston - Galveston has reached 80 today. This is the earliest 80 degree day for Galveston on record, breaking the prev record of Feb 21 back in 1993.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

84 degrees at my house right now. Eighty. Four. degrees.

It was -20 last week at 11am just outside of Gunnison Colorado.

[Texas Snowman]

Big grassfire rolling in Travis County per Twitter. Has been affecting traffic.

[Texas Snowman]

@AllHazardsTFS - Incident Alert: TFS is responding to a wildfire in Callahan County, with possible structures threatened. #txfire

[wxman57]

83 and climbing in Houston. 88 in San Antonio. 85 in Austin. Southwest winds will do that. I see some slightly below normal temps in the GFS/EC for next week, but that won't last. This is the spring weather thread, right?

[Portastorm]

Big grassfire rolling in Travis County per Twitter. Has been affecting traffic.

Thankfully that fire has been 100% contained but wildfire conditions are only going to worsen around the Austin/Travis County area in the next 48 hours.

[Ntxw]

MJO amplitude into phase 8 could be a record in the making for Feb. I think 1988 holds the record.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, out of curiosity, why isn't the models adjusting to the mjo progression and ao going negative? Is it too early still? I really am confused honestly

[TeamPlayersBlue]

MJO amplitude into phase 8 could be a record in the making for Feb. I think 1988 holds the record.

That typically spells rain event for us right?

[Ntxw]

MJO amplitude into phase 8 could be a record in the making for Feb. I think 1988 holds the record.

That typically spells rain event for us right?

Very much like a Nino yeah.

And to golf the models are seeing it. We just haven't found any cold ar sitting around yet due to the Pacific.

[wxman57]

85 at IAH at 3pm. Up to 88 in both San Antonio & Austin. 92 in McAllen. Heck of a way to run a winter.

[Ntxw]

Might want to fly to NYC or Boston on Thursday for snow. Could be 1-2 ft blizzard of +PNA glory for them

[wxman57]

Might want to fly to NYC or Boston on Thursday for snow. Could be 1-2 ft blizzard of +PNA glory for them

Definitely a big snow storm up there. Groundhog was right, sort of.

[Golf7070]

MJO amplitude into phase 8 could be a record in the making for Feb. I think 1988 holds the record.

That typically spells rain event for us right?

Very much like a Nino yeah.

And to golf the models are seeing it. We just haven't found any cold ar sitting around yet due to the Pacific.

Do we have to wait until pna breaks down to feel the effects of the -ao or certain phases of mjo moving forward? I know im asking you loaded questions, but I feel that is warranted here. Just confused with all this ao/ ssw stuff I've heard for last 2 weeks

[Ntxw]

That typically spells rain event for us right?

Very much like a Nino yeah.

And to golf the models are seeing it. We just haven't found any cold ar sitting around yet due to the Pacific.

Do we have to wait until pna breaks down to feel the effects of the -ao or certain phases of mjo moving forward? I know im asking you loaded questions, but I feel that is warranted here. Just confused with all this ao/ ssw stuff I've heard for last 2 weeks

Yes we need to wait for the +PNA to break. The ridge out west is so strong look at the outrageous temperatures going on from wxman57 has emboldened with its influence. No bueno super +PNA. The AO only turned negative the past a day or two, give it a little time to manifest into the pattern. It should start to collapse with the big system expected to bring ample rainfall with the ridge translating more to a SE ridge than PNA ridge.

[Golf7070]

Very much like a Nino yeah.

And to golf the models are seeing it. We just haven't found any cold ar sitting around yet due to the Pacific.

Do we have to wait until pna breaks down to feel the effects of the -ao or certain phases of mjo moving forward? I know im asking you loaded questions, but I feel that is warranted here. Just confused with all this ao/ ssw stuff I've heard for last 2 weeks

Yes we need to wait for the +PNA to break. The ridge out west is so strong look at the outrageous temperatures going on from wxman57 has emboldened with its influence. No bueno super +PNA. The AO only turned negative the past a day or two, give it a little time to manifest into the pattern. It should start to collapse with the big system expected to bring ample rainfall with the ridge translating more to a SE ridge than PNA ridge.

Perhaps things are progressing nicely and it's just a matter of time before we get more interesting. At least that's what im wanting to see happen before we run out of time

[Ntxw]

yeah it is our last window for this winter. Remote chance of threading needle early next week, could be decent snows in panhandle then we will need cold air after to work its way in. If we don't cash in feb 20th-March 10thish with the -AO, thats pretty much last resort...fingers crossed.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: yeah it is our last window for this winter. Remote chance of threading needle early next week, could be decent snows in panhandle then we will need cold air after to work its way in. If we don't cash in feb 20th-March 10thish with the -AO, thats pretty much last resort...fingers crossed.

One of my favorite all-time winter weather events in Austin occurred in late February, actually ... February 25-26, 2003. We had an icy mix of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow. Thundersleet occurred on my hours-long drive home from work. Pretty much closed down the city for two days. Guess it could happen again, right?!