Texas Winter 2016-2017

[weathaguyry]

I don't know a lot about Texas Winters, but I'm pretty sure that THIS will cause some issues...



The canadian model was also showing a stripe of a few inches of snow on the 12z run






Don't give up hope yet... The CMC keeps moving farther and farther east with snow, so you never know! (The 12z yesterday had snow for DFW but not for New York!!!)

[wxman57]

Happy National Weatherperson's Day everyone!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weatherperson's_Day

Thanks, but this PC business is getting a bit much. It's National Weatherman's Day. The word "man" doesn't always mean only male. For example, we're all humans, not hupersons. It's "mankind" not "personkind". Similarly, a weatherman is someone who predicts the weather. Could be a man or a woman. It's a losing battle...

Heading out on my bike to enjoy the warm weather.

[dhweather]

I don't know how to copy a link so one can open it. With that being said, it is a link to a TEXAS GROUND and WXMAN57 you will like it.

https://www.facebook.com/U.S.SevereWeat ... 67/?type=3

Yes, I've seen that. I'm still not seeing anything to say "Texas Pete" (the snake) is wrong. No sign of significant cold down here. We may have seen our last freeze of the winter in Houston, though I wouldn't bet my life on it just yet.

But if you had to bet, the options are a) no more freezes or b) one or more freezes , I'd go with A down there. And maybe up here.

I know, you just don't want to admit that you've mashed the "winter cancel" button. Again.

[dhweather]

So all the talk last month about the second week of February , looks like the heat miser killed that too.

At this pace, severe weather season is shaping up to be a non event this Spring. Depressing.

[Ntxw]

So all the talk last month about the second week of February , looks like the heat miser killed that too.

At this pace, severe weather season is shaping up to be a non event this Spring. Depressing.

Post La Nina springs are often active and destructive. 2017 has already started much busier than normal and deadlier than all of 2016 combined and we've barely eclipsed a month.

[Ntxw]

For you SSW followers, this has been a pretty good example of a propagating major stratospheric warming event that translates to the troposphere with a -AO. Many warming events don't work their way down and since 2012-2013 we haven't seen to this magnitude. So for a meteorological and scientific standpoint this was a significantly well forecasted event from early to mid January.


Whether this means the southern plains will get cold or not is yet to be seen, but at least there's a chance at a pattern change

[Tireman4]

For you SSW followers, this has been a pretty good example of a propagating major stratospheric warming event that translates to the troposphere with a -AO. Many warming events don't work their way down and since 2012-2013 we haven't seen to this magnitude. So for a meteorological and scientific standpoint this was a significantly well forecasted event from early to mid January.
https://i.imgsafe.org/7a3009535f.jpg

Whether this means the southern plains will get cold or not is yet to be seen, but at least there's a chance at a pattern change

So what you are saying Mr.Met is that the change comes first, then the trend?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

This will be the winter I watched Thanksgiving Day football and the Super Bowl on my back deck, and spent Christmas afternoon out there as well.

[gpsnowman]

Warm week ahead including mid 80s expected on Saturday. Vomit.

[srainhoutx]

Seeing a strong signal via the extended guidance for a potentially significant storm system around the mid February timeframe. That tends to coincide with the MJO and CCKW propagation across the Pacific lending to fairly good model agreement among the Global deterministic guidance. Watch the Eastern Pacific moisture plume in the days ahead as a potent upper low develops over Arizona/Northern Mexico later this weekend and slowly moves East across Texas around February 14th/15th.

[bubba hotep]

Seeing a strong signal via the extended guidance for a potentially significant storm system around the mid February timeframe. That tends to coincide with the MJO and CCKW propagation across the Pacific lending to fairly good model agreement among the Global deterministic guidance. Watch the Eastern Pacific moisture plume in the days ahead as a potent upper low develops over Arizona/Northern Mexico later this weekend and slowly moves East across Texas around February 14th/15th.

Pretty good model agreement on this for it being 8 to 10 days out but that is what a strong MJO/CCKW signal can do. The MJO Phase 7 - 8 propagation matches up nicely with lower heights swinging from the SW to the EC with a +PNA spike as a system kicks out. I guess one of the advantages of the system at the end of this week being only a glancing blow of cool air is that it doesn't scour the western Gulf of moisture. So the combo of Gulf moisture and Pacific moisture sets things up for being pretty wet across Texas with the system you are talking about.

[bubba hotep]

2017 could be off to a fast start with DFW already above normal in the rainfall department

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/828617715610824710

[Brent]

Have we ever had this many 80s in a winter before? Just saw 86 on Saturday on Fox 4

Oh well at least it looks like we'll get some good rains...

[texas1836]

Have we ever had this many 80s in a winter before? Just saw 86 on Saturday on Fox 4

Oh well at least it looks like we'll get some good rains...

Looks like the record high was 88 back in 1922. Also, February is full of 80's and 90's for record highs, so maybe not to unusual.

[bubba hotep]

Have we ever had this many 80s in a winter before? Just saw 86 on Saturday on Fox 4

Oh well at least it looks like we'll get some good rains...

I think DFW is 10 short of the record? IIRC, I saw that somewhere.

[Ntxw]

Hot off the press

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/828672924852879360




Agree though on second half rains and plenty of it. What comes of the AO and lowering PNA is yet to be seen.

[Ntxw]

That's not to say there's no cold to be had. Euro looks below normal mid month, mostly from storminess, very Nino-ish warm north, cool to cold south.

[gpsnowman]

That's not to say there's no cold to be had. Euro looks below normal mid month, mostly from storminess, very Nino-ish warm north, cool to cold south.

Yes sir, sure would be nice to see some rain. I hate to say it but I am getting used to all this warmth, not that I have a choice.

[dhweather]

While the pollen counts are down for juniper/mountain cedar, there's still plenty of it around. A good rain would resolve a lot of that problem.

[Tireman4]

Wake me when it is over..goodness gracious...(HGX)

This Afternoon
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.