Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

So FWD is mentioning light snow accumulation here Saturday night now...

[Ntxw]

No doubt about it though, this blast will be colder than the one we had last week, the fight is in the precip and storm(s)

[orangeblood]

No doubt about it though, this blast will be colder than the one we had last week, the fight is in the precip and storm(s)

Was looking over the DFW freeze records...we are due for a single digit low temp, it has been over 20 years since that last occurred - Feb 1996

[CaptinCrunch]

The wake of the cold front on Saturday, the models are coming into
better agreement on the potential for light snow north of I-20
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings from
the GFS indicate low level moisture and temperatures will be
sufficient for light snow as lift from the passing upper level
trough provides the needed forcing. Very light accumulations of
snow may occur but the breezy winds and still relatively warm
ground temperatures ahead of the arctic blast will likely limit
any accumulations to no more than an trace or 0.1 inches of snow.
Any snow is expected to end early Sunday morning.

On the heels of the upper level trough that passes through
Saturday night/Sunday morning, an upper level low is forecast by
all the models to cut-off near Baja early next week. However,
beyond that, the discrepancies between the models grow, lending
to low confidence in the forecast solution for next week. The GFS
is the quickest to eject the upper low into the Plains in the
middle of the week. This solution could have the potential to
bring winter precip to the region depending on the surface
temperatures. On the other hand, the ECMWF stalls the upper level
low near Baja California for several days which allows a warming
trend to occur across North and Central Texas. Instead of the
upper level low impacting the region, the ECMWF brings another
upper level trough through the Plains later in the week that could
bring rain to the region. Next week definitely bears watching.

[Tireman4]

Looks like HGX is buying into something..LOL

A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.
Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 44.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

[Tireman4]

Looks like HGX is buying into something..LOL

A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.
Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 44.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141203
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Surface analysis has cold front in the Gulf with north winds over
much of SE Texas. Ceilings have dropped to IFR for all TAF sites
except KCLL where low MVFR ceilings prevail. KCLL may hold at MVFR
with no up stream obs showing lower ceilings. Low ceilings should
hold through much of the day and begin to thin out and lift some
during the afternoon. A deeper layer of dry air does not arrive
until overnight so still could have broken ceilings through the
evening hours. KLBX/KGLS may not completely clear out of clouds
until later on Thursday morning.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge will build into SE Texas today. As the center of
the ridge moves across the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley on
Thursday and Friday, onshore winds will return Gulf moisture and
warmer temperatures across our area. Warm air and moist air
advection will occur on Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front
to return rain chances both days; although a capping inversion
should limit rainfall until just ahead of the cold frontal
passage. The cold front is expected to move across the forecast
area late Saturday and be off of the coast shortly between
midnight and sunrise Saturday night/Sunday morning. Another
surface ridge of high pressure will then bring much cooler
temperatures to SE Texas for the first part of next week.

Regarding daily details, warm temperatures will be the main item
of concern today and Thursday, rain chances over the first half of
the weekend, and then cold temperatures for the first part of
next week beginning on Sunday. The models are showing a warmer day
today than on Thursday, even with more cloud cover today. A
secondary cold frontal push on Thursday will aid in bring cooler
temperatures as the surface ridge builds overhead. Both Friday
and Saturday will see warmer than normal daytime highs due to the
onshore winds. One thing to keep in mind will be the return of fog
issues which may spread inland from sea fog formation over the
nearshore and bay waters Friday night.

Both the GFS and ECMWF agree that a fairly strong shortwave trough
should move across the Southern Plains on Saturday and Saturday
night. SE Texas should come under the right-rear quadrant of the
upper level jet as the front moves across the area Saturday night.
The best time period for thunderstorms will be Saturday night
ahead of the front due to a fairly strong cap in place during
the afternoon.

Much cooler than normal temperatures will occur behind the front
on Sunday through Tuesday, with the lowest temperatures Sunday
night and Monday morning. Some locations will possibly experience
wind chills in the teens Sunday night and early Monday morning as
well if the northerly winds stay in the 10 to 15 mph range.

[Ntxw]

No doubt about it though, this blast will be colder than the one we had last week, the fight is in the precip and storm(s)

Was looking over the DFW freeze records...we are due for a single digit low temp, it has been over 20 years since that last occurred - Feb 1996

Long overdue. Really it should have happened during superbowl week in 2011 a couple of times. Clouds and incoming snow stopped it short at 13.

[orangeblood]

GFS trending towards the Euro...not a good sign for winter weather chances

[Portastorm]

GFS trending towards the Euro...not a good sign for winter weather chances

LOL ... yeah because it's like 10 degrees warmer with surface temps around that time. Just compare the last four GFS runs and look at the 500 mb heights. There is not much consistency. I'm channeling my inner wxman57 when I saw I don't trust the GFS beyond this weekend ... and even then, I don't fully trust it's depiction of our weekend temps until Friday.

[wxman57]

This is not a good setup for snow accumulations. Moisture will be very limited behind the front Saturday night.

[Brent]

Christmas storm still around lol

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

This weekend will feature two seasons…summer on Saturday and winter on Sunday!

Thursday-early Friday:
Weak cool front has crept into the near shore waters overnight with another day of low clouds and fog across the region with temperatures steady in the 60’s. Sea fog has been largely pushed offshore, but is just awaiting the winds to come back around to the S late Thursday to spread back into the coastal areas. Cool again on Thursday with mainly cloudy skies followed by rapid warming Friday and Saturday with slightly increased rain chances.

Friday-Saturday:
Period will feature very warm conditions for mid December with IAH likely to approach a record high of 80 on Saturday under strong warm air advection pattern. Large storm system will exit into the plains bringing warm air northward from the Gulf and unleashing a cold surge of arctic air down the high plains. May see some light showers on Saturday, but main rain chances will be confined to right along the incoming frontal boundary.

Saturday night-Sunday:
Arctic front will blast across the area between midnight and sunrise. Onset of strong cold air advection will likely result in a temperatures drop of 20-25 degrees with the frontal passage…form the 70’s into the 40’s in less than an hour. Front will be accompanied by strong NNW winds of 15-25mph with higher gust driving wind chills by Sunday morning into the 20’s and 30’s. Upstream air mass is very cold with a high of only 32 forecast for Dallas on Sunday, so current temperatures in the low 40’s on Sunday may be too warm and may need to undercut guidance in the coming days. Mid level deck should remain in place behind the front, but not expecting any precipitation at this time. Could see a temperature difference of nearly 40 degrees between Saturday and Sunday…so be prepared.

Early Next Week:
Not sure when if at all clouds will clear post front which will result in poor forecast confidence during the overnight periods on just how low temperatures will fall. Latest GFS does indicate a freeze potential both Monday and Tuesday mornings…but I was burned last week with the clouds and will be much more careful this time. Will go with 34-36 Monday AM and Tuesday AM until we get closer to the period to get a better handle of the post frontal cloud pattern.

Stormy pattern looks to continue right into the holiday period with another big storm system coming out of the SW US right before Christmas. Way too soon to tell what surface temperature profiles will look like around the end of next week, but this could be a big messy winter storm for portions of the southern plains and could see some widespread rainfall over SE TX.

[gatorcane]

12Z EC keeps core of cold to the north of Texas and Southern US...

For example:

[ronyan]

That's 850mb and the GFS looks quite similar at that level.

I would tend towards undercutting model output at the surface by a couple of degrees F but we'll see.

[srainhoutx]

I would be very cautious with the operational and ensemble guidance in a transitioning hemispheric pattern change. The ECMWF EPS has been flip flopping lately and the spread among the individual ensemble members is rather large. SW to NE upper troughs are notorious for large errors beyond 3 days.

[Cpv17]

According to the Euro, the cold air barely even makes it southeast Texas. Since I've been following the Euro it never seems to put the really cold anomalies over southeast Texas. Mainly keeps them confined to west Texas. Don't really know why it does that or if I'm not looking at somethings correctly because the GFS looks entirely different.

[JayDT]

So is it losing the cold?

[Brent]

It definitely lost the winter storm next week at least for now

[ronyan]

I don't have access to the ECMWF surface temps 12z looks like very little difference for this weekend in the temps from previous runs.

[JayDT]

It definitely lost the winter storm next week at least for now

Well that freakin sucks....