Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

Christmas Eve wraparound snow

I'd say the odds of 70 degrees on Christmas seems to be diminishing. But you know...200 hours.

Yeah... you never know but I do think it'll be at least seasonal. I won't go all in on cold yet but....

That looks like a Dixie alley severe setup right there.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile Canadian is an ice rink on Tuesday. It's a lot faster ejecting the ULL.

[Brent]

[A.V.]

I'd say the odds of 70 degrees on Christmas seems to be diminishing. But you know...200 hours.

Correct, it will be 65F.

[Ntxw]

I'd say the odds of 70 degrees on Christmas seems to be diminishing. But you know...200 hours.

Correct, it will be 65F.

If you consider the margin of error, I'd say anywhere between 25 and 65 sounds about right.

[Brent]

The GFS is so cold it has one frame with DFW above 50 beyond Saturday through 384 hours... many days Christmas week are in the 30s.

[A.V.]

:uarrow:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_27.png

I've come to one conclusion; if Texas is going to get cold, let the cold stay up in Dallas, or in back at Austin. Brownsville, Houston, and Beaumont need to be milder. Or better yet, let that cold be found nowhere else but the mountains of West Texas.

I actually like cold weather, though... when the cold is 50F at night.

[A.V.]

The GFS is so cold it has one frame with DFW above 50 beyond Saturday through 384 hours... many days Christmas week are in the 30s.

It's okay, the GFS just sick with common cold. It will be back on its feet in no time.

[JayDT]

Meanwhile Canadian is an ice rink on Tuesday. It's a lot faster ejecting the ULL.

I know a lot of people hate ice, so I actually feel kind of bad that I actually want this if this was our only option other than rain. I just need some type of winter weather around here.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile Canadian is an ice rink on Tuesday. It's a lot faster ejecting the ULL.

I know a lot of people hate ice, so I actually feel kind of bad that I actually want this if this was our only option other than rain. I just need some type of winter weather around here.

Ice can be fun if it's sleet and you don't have to travel in it just staying home. Poor man's snow we like to call it around here. Just none of that freezing rain stuff, it's really no good for much other than headaches. The only thing worse and more miserable than cold rain is freezing rain.

[JayDT]

Meanwhile Canadian is an ice rink on Tuesday. It's a lot faster ejecting the ULL.

I know a lot of people hate ice, so I actually feel kind of bad that I actually want this if this was our only option other than rain. I just need some type of winter weather around here.

Ice can be fun if it's sleet and you don't have to travel in it just staying home. Poor man's snow we like to call it around here. Just none of that freezing rain stuff, it's really no good for much other than headaches. The only thing worse and more miserable than cold rain is freezing rain.

Ohh yeah I definitely don't mind sleet at all! I love hearing it hitting the windows and doors. When its sleeting pretty hard it gets me almost as excited as seeing snow falling. Freezing rain is really no good. Pretty horrible actually, especially when its a lot. It makes the trees look really cool completely covered in ice, but that's the only good thing i can think of lol

[DougNTexas]

The problem with freezing rain is the power lines coming down if it is a lot of it. Nothing worse then no power and no heat, plus no TV for a day or two at least. Give me snow, sleet, or just a cold rain, but NO freezing rain.

[Brent]

I know a lot of people hate ice, so I actually feel kind of bad that I actually want this if this was our only option other than rain. I just need some type of winter weather around here.

Ice can be fun if it's sleet and you don't have to travel in it just staying home. Poor man's snow we like to call it around here. Just none of that freezing rain stuff, it's really no good for much other than headaches. The only thing worse and more miserable than cold rain is freezing rain.

Ohh yeah I definitely don't mind sleet at all! I love hearing it hitting the windows and doors. When its sleeting pretty hard it gets me almost as excited as seeing snow falling. Freezing rain is really no good. Pretty horrible actually, especially when its a lot. It makes the trees look really cool completely covered in ice, but that's the only good thing i can think of lol

lol, sleet is cool for the first hour and then I'm just over it honestly. I was all excited to see a sleet storm in 2015 since Alabama never really had one and yeah it quickly wore off.

[DougNTexas]

Brent it is hard to make snow ice cream from sleet...............

[Brent]

Euro is faster with the front or cooler Saturday for some reason... Friday is actually warmer... Saturday is near 60 most of the daytime before the bottom falls out late afternoon and DFW is below freezing by 10pm. No precip this run before fropa. It has 0.01" officially Saturday Night with temperatures below freezing.

Yeah it's faster, OKC is already below freezing Saturday morning.

Still has Sunday staying below freezing all day and Monday just barely gets above.

It's much slower with the Tue/Wed energy, still off Baja on Wednesday. This run is so different from the 12z its insane. 850's are blazing when it had a snowstorm west of DFW last run lol

[Ntxw]

DFW has been overachieving with the past couple of fronts. Got down to 37F even with clouds and forecasted in the low 40s. 3-5 degrees may seem not that much but the average low is in the upper 30s so it effects the departures.

[Golf7070]

Can someone who has euro access tell me how much qpf is frozen for my area off euro 0z? In ne arkansas

[gatorcane]

Euro is faster with the front or cooler Saturday for some reason... Friday is actually warmer... Saturday is near 60 most of the daytime before the bottom falls out late afternoon and DFW is below freezing by 10pm. No precip this run before fropa. It has 0.01" officially Saturday Night with temperatures below freezing.

Yeah it's faster, OKC is already below freezing Saturday morning.

Still has Sunday staying below freezing all day and Monday just barely gets above.

It's much slower with the Tue/Wed energy, still off Baja on Wednesday. This run is so different from the 12z its insane. 850's are blazing when it had a snowstorm west of DFW last run lol

Yeah that 00Z Euro run is like the Lucy pulling the football away before Charlie Brown kicks moment. Completely different from yesterday. The SE ridge slides west into the Gulf!

[orangeblood]

DFW has been overachieving with the past couple of fronts. Got down to 37F even with clouds and forecasted in the low 40s. 3-5 degrees may seem not that much but the average low is in the upper 30s so it effects the departures.

Yep, and the models continue to get colder for early next week as well...some GFS ensembles are in the low teens Another great battle between the Euro vs. GFS/Canadian for next weeks system, not within the 4-5 day range though so still too early to call

[srainhoutx]

Confidence increasing that we will warm up Friday into Saturday ahead of the next shot of modified Arctic Air arrives late Saturday night into early Sunday. The big concern immediately with this next Arctic boundary are the unusually cold wind chill readings expected even here in SE Texas where those wind chill valued could be in the low to middle teens to low 20'sF for feels like temperatures.

The next issue is a low confidence forecast regarding a pesky SW upper low/trough near the Baja Peninsula next Monday into Tuesday. At the surface, temperatures will be cold, but a very noisy SW flow aloft above the shallow surface cold air tends to make for a cloudy and unsettled pattern. The last episode where we experienced this sort of set up brought 11+ inches of rain to Texas City a couple of weekends ago and surface temperatures were stuck in the mid 50's as a Coastal low/trough developed as you recall. This time temperatures are expected to be about 15 to 20 degrees colder which creates problems, particularly across the Hill Country and North Texas with the potential of freezing rain/sleet possibly mixed with a few flakes of snow, depending on how cold aloft the temperatures are. This is the timeframe that we will need to watch a bit more carefully as we get closer to the weekend and early next week. As KHOU Chief Meteorologist David Paul posted on the KHOU Weather Forum yesterday afternoon, nothing to loose sleep over, but we will be watching.