Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor，is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?

I'm not sure what changes in the central Pacific you are asking about? The Nina standing wave perhaps?

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting developments with today's model runs! They are clearly struggling trying to figure out the pattern next week.

I just hope we can keep the precip coming. It's been another awesome wet year!

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor，is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?

I'm not sure what changes in the central Pacific you are asking about? The Nina standing wave perhaps?

Anthony masiello mentioned it on twitter yesterday. Tropical forcing i think shifting more east than west....further from dateline i think which i hope is good

What are ur thoughts on mjo?

[TexasF6]

Canadian paints a pre-Christmas Week ice storm in Dallas, freezing rain. No bueno!

[TheProfessor]

Ntxw，what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor，is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?

Probably a mix if I were to guess. The warm nose isn't very big according to the Euro or even very warm. But, the column I saw doesn't support great snow growth as of right now.

[TheProfessor]

Canadian paints a pre-Christmas Week ice storm in Dallas, freezing rain. No bueno!

I loathe Ice storms, Can't play in them, can't walk on it. My dog tries to kill me when I walk him on ice. I much prefer snow.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor，is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?

I'm not sure what changes in the central Pacific you are asking about? The Nina standing wave perhaps?

Anthony masiello mentioned it on twitter yesterday. Tropical forcing i think shifting more east than west....further from dateline i think which i hope is good

What are ur thoughts on mjo?

The MJO forecasts has been struggling, thus the inconsistencies of the models. It will progress east as it usually does and we may even see the PNA spike up briefly. But that won't last because of the Nina, it will likely reorganize over the IO/maritimes come the new year for renewed Aleutian ridge

[Ntxw]

0z GFS arctic front comes through Saturday evening and by midnight should be close to freezing. Has some snow/mix along the Red River. At 5h after that there are some slight differences between it and the 12z/18z for the storm digging down out west

Sunday's high is basically in the upper 20s for DFW, Austin would be in the mid to upper 30s

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is slower with the low for mid week. It looks like on this run it may try to be a west Texas snowstorm

Meanwhile Christmas timeframe storm is coming down the west

[Brent]

Looks like a very cold rain in DFW Wednesday this run

[Ntxw]

Looks like a very cold rain in DFW Wednesday this run

If it ejects a little quicker it would catch the colder air. Cutoff lows are always such a pain to forecast .

[Brent]

Looks like a very cold rain in DFW Wednesday this run

If it ejects a little quicker it would catch the colder air. Cutoff lows are always such a pain to forecast .

don't remind me We'll know about when it starts snowing or not snowing.

[JayDT]

It can never be simple...

[Ntxw]

Christmas system is looking a lot stronger on this run than previous runs. But we're now well over 200 hours.

Probably going to be a snowstorm on this run for Christmas Eve, big high to the north surface low to the south

[Brent]

It can never be simple...

I'm used to it, 25 years in Alabama it was the same way. Cold core lows were either really amazing or total disasters. There's no in between.

[weatherdude1108]

0z GFS arctic front comes through Saturday evening and by midnight should be close to freezing. Has some snow/mix along the Red River. At 5h after that there are some slight differences between it and the 12z/18z for the storm digging down out west

Sunday's high is basically in the upper 20s for DFW, Austin would be in the mid to upper 30s

[JayDT]

It can never be simple...

I'm used to it, 25 years in Alabama it was the same way. Cold core lows were either really amazing or total disasters. There's no in between.

Im used to it also, but I still hate it lol. There really is no in between. Lets hope next week we'll be talking about some snow around here!

[Brent]

More cold rain on December 23rd, but we're getting into fantasy land

[Brent]

Christmas Eve wraparound snow

[Ntxw]

Christmas Eve wraparound snow

I'd say the odds of 70 degrees on Christmas seems to be diminishing. But you know...200 hours.