Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

Gfs very cold again end of next week and some frozen precip appears in east texas again next Friday.

Snow map is interesting

[Stormnut]

Shows 70's Monday the 19th now for DFW

[Ntxw]

Shows 70's Monday the 19th now for DFW

Sure does, right before the big SW trough/storm kicks in. Several good days of moisture return ahead of it and cold front

[TheProfessor]

Well it looks like I'll be bringing some cold down with me when I comeback to Texas (Be careful what you wish for, single digits and below zero windshields, are very fun) Unfortunately I can't promise and wintry precip, if the 18z GFS is any indicator then it looks to be that snow will be avoiding Columbus as if we have a zombie infiltration or something. Then it has Columbus getting hit after I leave(All though it's had Columbus getting hit with some nice 3-5 inch snows within 5 days for the past 2 weeks ultimately disappearing a couple of days before the event.)

[Brent]

Pre-Christmas storm taking shape on Thursday the 22nd arctic air in oklahoma

This run is wet not wintry

[Tireman4]

and as if on cue..the hype machine starts....

Polar Vortex....

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topsto ... spartanntp

[Ntxw]

Pre-Christmas storm taking shape on Thursday the 22nd arctic air in oklahoma

This run is wet not wintry

it's very close though. Overall not too different a run than previously aside from 300hr+ details. It is a little faster with ejecting the trough.

[Brent]

Pre-Christmas storm taking shape on Thursday the 22nd arctic air in oklahoma

This run is wet not wintry

it's very close though. Overall not too different a run than previously aside from 300hr+ details. It is a little faster with ejecting the trough.

Yeah there will be a thousand runs before it's reality and the idea doesn't change off one run.

Even with the warmer system before Christmas it still has a cold Christmas with temperatures in the 20s

I wouldn't sleep on next friday yet the trend is colder and more moisture... DFW gets a couple hundredths of QPF with temps around 35

[A.V.]

Key word being August... June (normally our second wettest month of the year in Austin) saw very little rain. July was abnormally dry. September had some rain, though for my specific area it mostly occured during one event. Even October was extremely dry considering it is the 3rd wettest month of the year. I wouldn't call this summer a washout simply because August had a lot of rain.

It comes down to this... When we see several weeks of dry conditions followed by 3 or 4 weeks of heavy rain followed by several weeks of dry conditions, it doesn't do a whole lot for soil moisture. Evaporation is very high during the summer months so by the time August came, much of that rainfall mearly saved the overall soil moisture levels from getting worse and a good amount of that rainfall simply washed away without doing anything. The grass, plants and trees were very happy but they sucked up the moisture within a few weeks and by mid to late September, soil moisture levels deep down was again on the decline.

Personally I consider it a wet summer when all of the summer months see at least average to above average rainfall and where we see 2 to 3 days per week where rain falls. Doesn't have to be a lot but it's better for smaller amounts of rain distributed over a greater time span rather than a whole lot of rain squeezed out over a few days.

Well, in SE Texas, every summer month ended up above average in rainfall, and it was over lots of days as well. Places like Beaumont and Houston Hobby broke records for days with consecutive rainfalls. No 100F days in those locations.

2014 was another wet summer, with not even Houston IAH seeing 100F. The totals weren't high, but rain was frequent. Thus frequency of rain plays more of a role in temps than amount.

Because of the evaporation issue you mention, I honestly don't mind dry spells that occur during late fall-early spring periods; that is the time of coolest temps, so evaporation is minimized.

[Ntxw]

Through 15 days ECMWF ENS is rebuilding the Aleutian ridge, but that is way out there just food for thought. I make note of it because there is a strong clustering of ensemble runs there.

[A.V.]

It has really sucked being in Louisiana the last few winters. Even when cold does come down, it wants to stay to our west thanks to the SE ridge. I need that thing to budge a little further east.

What are you talking about, there are freeze warnings lining the entire area north of Lake Pontchartrain, and all the way down to Biloxi, MS?

That SE ridge needs to become a permanent winter feature, and let it be expansive, so that the entire eastern Texas gets covered.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It has really sucked being in Louisiana the last few winters. Even when cold does come down, it wants to stay to our west thanks to the SE ridge. I need that thing to budge a little further east.

What are you talking about, there are freeze warnings lining the entire area north of Lake Pontchartrain, and all the way down to Biloxi, MS?

That SE ridge needs to become a permanent winter feature, and let it be expansive, so that the entire eastern Texas gets covered.

We get it, you don't like cold weather. Some of us do. No need to repeat yourself every post.

[Cpv17]

All of the forecasts I've seen have highs in the 50's or 60's here in southeast TX for the end of next week. I think that forecast is gonna bust, but they just gotta be conservative I suppose.

[A.V.]

We get it, you don't like cold weather. Some of us do. No need to repeat yourself every post.

Actually, I do like a bit of chill during winter nights. Nighttime temps from 45-55F are the best.

[Ntxw]

All of the forecasts I've seen have highs in the 50's or 60's here in southeast TX for the end of next week. I think that forecast is gonna bust, but they just gotta be conservative I suppose.

There are uncertainties about the end of the week the further south in the US we are but overall pretty good consensus there will likely be another front similar to the one we just went through at least.

[JDawg512]

Key word being August... June (normally our second wettest month of the year in Austin) saw very little rain. July was abnormally dry. September had some rain, though for my specific area it mostly occured during one event. Even October was extremely dry considering it is the 3rd wettest month of the year. I wouldn't call this summer a washout simply because August had a lot of rain.

It comes down to this... When we see several weeks of dry conditions followed by 3 or 4 weeks of heavy rain followed by several weeks of dry conditions, it doesn't do a whole lot for soil moisture. Evaporation is very high during the summer months so by the time August came, much of that rainfall mearly saved the overall soil moisture levels from getting worse and a good amount of that rainfall simply washed away without doing anything. The grass, plants and trees were very happy but they sucked up the moisture within a few weeks and by mid to late September, soil moisture levels deep down was again on the decline.

Personally I consider it a wet summer when all of the summer months see at least average to above average rainfall and where we see 2 to 3 days per week where rain falls. Doesn't have to be a lot but it's better for smaller amounts of rain distributed over a greater time span rather than a whole lot of rain squeezed out over a few days.

Well, in SE Texas, every summer month ended up above average in rainfall, and it was over lots of days as well. Places like Beaumont and Houston Hobby broke records for days with consecutive rainfalls. No 100F days in those locations.

2014 was another wet summer, with not even Houston IAH seeing 100F. The totals weren't high, but rain was frequent. Thus frequency of rain plays more of a role in temps than amount.

Because of the evaporation issue you mention, I honestly don't mind dry spells that occur during late fall-early spring periods; that is the time of coolest temps, so evaporation is minimized.

If your around Houston and Beaumont then summers are quite different than other areas. Texas is of couse a ginormous state so it depending where each of us lives, we can experience very different weather. Overall this summer was not that bad when compared to most summers Texas experiences. August was a much needed respite and without rain that month, it would have been hotter than it ultimately was.

As far as what's going on now, like Porta mentioned most areas of Austin didn't get a freeze. My sensitive plants are all alive and well. Not a huge fan of freezing weather but would be nice to have a couple of moderate short freezes to kill off the mosqitos and would be good for my plum tree.

[Ntxw]

Officially DFW had a high of 38 degrees today which together with the low is -17F below normal. Yesterday was -14F below normal. Both IAH and AUS were -10F below normal today

Interestingly enough for the month IAH (Houston) is the winner so far in December which is at -3.7F below normal. Every day but one has been below normal. Wxman57 is having a lot of trouble keeping Houston warm.

[A.V.]

All of the forecasts I've seen have highs in the 50's or 60's here in southeast TX for the end of next week. I think that forecast is gonna bust, but they just gotta be conservative I suppose.

You never know, a SE ridge can just pop up, and give SE Texas nothing but warm, dry 70s.

If your around Houston and Beaumont then summers are quite different than other areas. Texas is of couse a ginormous state so it depending where each of us lives, we can experience very different weather. Overall this summer was not that bad when compared to most summers Texas experiences. August was a much needed respite and without rain that month, it would have been hotter than it ultimately was.

As far as what's going on now, like Porta mentioned most areas of Austin didn't get a freeze. My sensitive plants are all alive and well. Not a huge fan of freezing weather but would be nice to have a couple of moderate short freezes to kill off the mosqitos and would be good for my plum tree.

Texas summers just get ruined by the "Death Ridge." Did you know that from 1981-2010, Austin averaged less frequent rainfall days in August than Phoenix? I don't know why Central/North Texas is always under that atrocious thing during summer; I can't think of any special geography that would cause it.

Ideally, freezes shouldn't happen at all in Austin, or much of Texas, which is far south in latitude. Sustained cool nights (say 40-50F) with winter drought would kill of mosquitoes just as effectively as a freeze would.

[A.V.]

Officially DFW had a high of 38 degrees today which together with the low is -17F below normal. Yesterday was -14F below normal. Both IAH and AUS were -10F below normal today

Interestingly enough for the month IAH (Houston) is the winner so far in December which is at -3.7F below normal. Every day but one has been below normal. Wxman57 is having a lot of trouble keeping Houston warm.

His powers work better for low temps than for highs, it seems. For the best effects, he should bring that SE ridge over to Houston. Or better yet, build a Game-of-Thrones wall across the Great Plains or Canada.

[Ntxw]

With the EPO, NAO, AO, WPO, nothing is more accurate than the index created a few years ago. Accuracy is almost on the money WSI after we poked him calling it the winter of his discontent. It turned out he was very happy in the end being a warm winter.