Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

324 hours snowing in dallas

Too bad this is a million hours out but the signal is pretty good for this range

and at 360 hours, Christmas Eve, there's a wintry mix in Houston. 372 hours Austin.

[Ntxw]

GFS has minimal cloud cover for today. Looking outside my window and then satellite and then back again out the window, I see overcast. Wonder if we make low 40s?

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I'm thinking last night's 18z GFS passed that bottle of hootch he was drinking to his buddy the 12z run. Go home GFS ... you're drunk!

[South Texas Storms]

Man the long range models sure are consistent for a few weeks out. Several runs in a row now indicate some type of winter storm across Texas near Christmas.

[Brent]

Man the long range models sure are consistent for a few weeks out. Several runs in a row now indicate some type of winter storm across Texas near Christmas.

The signal is pretty good but I can't help but halfway expect 70s for Christmas now lol.

[Ntxw]

Man the long range models sure are consistent for a few weeks out. Several runs in a row now indicate some type of winter storm across Texas near Christmas.

The SW trough seems real. When and what happens is determined by the timing of ejecting it from the SW it seems. Whether it comes in pieces or all at once or both seems to play a role how many winter events occur. Also through the entire run, it looks mostly cold leading up to it.

[South Texas Storms]

Man the long range models sure are consistent for a few weeks out. Several runs in a row now indicate some type of winter storm across Texas near Christmas.

The SW trough seems real. When and what happens is determined by the timing of ejecting it from the SW it seems. Whether it comes in pieces or all at once or both seems to play a role how many winter events occur. Also through the entire run, it looks mostly cold leading up to it.

Yeah I agree. My long range coworker and I are thinking that much of TX will have an above average chance of seeing at least some wintry precipitation this winter. The pattern seems like it will be ripe.

[srainhoutx]

While the GFS has had flip flops in the medium range, it hasn't been too bad with the synoptic pattern in the extended. With the MJO possibly headed into Phase 8 beyond the mid month timeframe, the idea of a Southern tracking storm system is not out of the realm of a possibility. The Teleconnection indices also suggest a cold and unsettled pattern the week before Christmas. We will see.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, I'm thinking last night's 18z GFS passed that bottle of hootch he was drinking to his buddy the 12z run. Go home GFS ... you're drunk!

[Tammie]

324 hours snowing in dallas

Too bad this is a million hours out but the signal is pretty good for this range

and at 360 hours, Christmas Eve, there's a wintry mix in Houston. 372 hours Austin.

Pleeeeease!!!!

[weatherdude1108]

Man the long range models sure are consistent for a few weeks out. Several runs in a row now indicate some type of winter storm across Texas near Christmas.

The signal is pretty good but I can't help but halfway expect 70s for Christmas now lol.

Yeah it is weird it went from 60s/70s to 20s/30s in one run from the 6z to the 12z. I think they're confused. Well again, it is possible to drop 40 to 50 degrees in 6 hours with a strong enough front.

6Z



12Z

[Brent]

The para GFS also supports a wintry threat around Christmas... and there has been more runs than not showing it since yesterday, but it's in the 300+ hr fantasy range...

The para GFS is just cold cold and more cold pretty much once the front hits next week.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I mean, looking at the reanalysis of 1983 the similarities are palpable. PV had glancing blow into the Great Lakes at around Dec 9th, Big high off the SW coast of mexico formed on the 10th. The KEY is as long as the Aleutian high stays, is the high near Mexico retrograding back westward. How will this happen? No idea, im sure some dynamics are at play in the Central Pac to help. If it retrogrades, it could connect with the Aleutian high and were in business.

Need to see what the reanalysis looks like in the W Pac/C Pac to get a grasp on this. I still truly think the Arctic doors will be wide open at the end of the month. The Siberian Low isnt going anywhere. Temps remain brutally cold there.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Absolutely fascinating pattern in the next 2-3 weeks. For those of who love combing through our volatile forecasts (mainly October thru April) and trying to learn more every day, this is truly the best time of year.

And for those of us who love Winter Weather, this is always much more exciting than the boring months of May through September!

[Portastorm]

Every winter on this forum we hear talk about 1983 and 1989. Every winter that talk proves to be nothing more than just talk. This time it's getting harder and harder to ignore the scientific facts and analogs. While it may not be like those two years, we may end up in Texas with something close. And let me tell you, if you weren't here then or weren't old enough to remember, we'd be in for a world of hurt. The amount of property damage, broken pipes, flooding, and crop damage would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Can't we just be happy with 20s and snow/ice?

[Brent]

Euro slower with the Wednesday front this run, Wednesday is near 70 even at DFW.

Edit: Has rain on Thursday morning, looks to be fropa

[South Texas Storms]

Every winter on this forum we hear talk about 1983 and 1989. Every winter that talk proves to be nothing more than just talk. This time it's getting harder and harder to ignore the scientific facts and analogs. While it may not be like those two years, we may end up in Texas with something close. And let me tell you, if you weren't here then or weren't old enough to remember, we'd be in for a world of hurt. The amount of property damage, broken pipes, flooding, and crop damage would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Can't we just be happy with 20s and snow/ice?

I'm good with 20s and snow/ice!

But seriously, it's crazy how similar this year's weather pattern has been on par with 1983. The wet spring, hot and dry summer, and now the very cold looking pattern around mid to late December.

[Portastorm]

Here's yet another model run (12z Euro) with another texbook McFarland Signature showing up ...

[Cpv17]

Hey guys, first post on here. I was wondering why the European model doesn't send a front through here (southeast Texas) next week & the GFS does. It's within one week away and I don't understand how two of the biggest models out there could be so different within a reasonable time frame. GFS has below average temps & Euro above average. It seems the Euro is shunting the core of the cold towards the northeast for next week and stops it's southern trajectory of cold air around the Red River. How could an Artic front this time of the year get caught up so far north?

[srainhoutx]

Every winter on this forum we hear talk about 1983 and 1989. Every winter that talk proves to be nothing more than just talk. This time it's getting harder and harder to ignore the scientific facts and analogs. While it may not be like those two years, we may end up in Texas with something close. And let me tell you, if you weren't here then or weren't old enough to remember, we'd be in for a world of hurt. The amount of property damage, broken pipes, flooding, and crop damage would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Can't we just be happy with 20s and snow/ice?

I've shared my experiences as a Fire Fighter here in SE Texas during the 1983 and 1989 events, but it worth mentioning again. Fire hydrants literally froze making them unusable for fire fighting. Prolonged temperatures well below freezing during the Christmas/New Year Holiday period left extremely low water pressure as many residential and commercial water supplies broke. There was tremendous property damage due to flooded homes from broken water lines and many were away traveling. We found ourselves responding from one working fire to another as people attempted to stay warm from space heaters. The Upper end of Galveston Bay had a sheet of ice over it. The freeze literally wiped out the citrus crop in S Texas for years. Many other plants suffered significant loss. Other agricultural interests such as livestock died. Been there...done that. Don't care to do it again in this part of the world...