Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temps have fallen from 27 to 24 here in the last hour.

We were forecasted a low of 17-18 and the lowest it got was 26 with clouds moving in.

[South Texas Storms]

DFW got down to 24F before clouds rolled in and has warmed to near 30 since. Winds stayed up some overnight. Houston has been overcast so South Texas Storms didn't get his freeze but maybe another try tonight. Another cold day today then near 70 by Sunday then down near normal before the next front brings a couple more days in the 30s by Thursday.

Yeah I'm pretty disappointed, especially since models a few days ago showed a solid freeze here. One more chance tonight, but I don't like my chances.

Cloud cover can really play havoc with temperature forecasts here in the winter. Always a wildcard.

[Ntxw]

The ENS and OP runs are all coming into agreement that a severe -EPO episode is about to occur. This almost always spells trouble for cold and winter weather and we have seen many model runs depicting it. What is also clear is that the southwest ridge will likely transfer itself into a stout southeast ridge, that will couple with the +NAO. What isn't so clear is the magnitude of the -EPO ridge and it's location but if this pans out, you can probably expect the cold to continue to press with threats of winter storms is a pretty likely bet west of the Mississippi River.

[Ntxw]

Yeah I'm pretty disappointed, especially since models a few days ago showed a solid freeze here. One more chance tonight, but I don't like my chances.

Cloud cover can really play havoc with temperature forecasts here in the winter. Always a wildcard.

You think because it's the virtual La Nada unable to strengthen that the upper level moisture is a lot more persistent? There's been a lot more tropical Pacific convection per say than you would think with a La Nina. It's been a weird ENSO event for sure.

[dhweather]

Temps have fallen from 27 to 24 here in the last hour.

We were forecasted a low of 17-18 and the lowest it got was 26 with clouds moving in.

28 in Heath, but that's good enough to mercilessly execute ragweed. And flying stinging things.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I'm pretty disappointed, especially since models a few days ago showed a solid freeze here. One more chance tonight, but I don't like my chances.

Cloud cover can really play havoc with temperature forecasts here in the winter. Always a wildcard.

You think because it's the virtual La Nada unable to strengthen that the upper level moisture is a lot more persistent? There's been a lot more tropical Pacific convection per say than you would think with a La Nina. It's been a weird ENSO event for sure.

Yeah I think the has at least something to do with it. Looking at the latest water vapor this morning, you can see signs of a subtropical jet just south of Baja California eastward across the Gulf and Florida.

If this was a bonafide La Nina, that likely wouldn't be there right now.

[srainhoutx]

Need to watch the MJO as we head beyond mid December. That may add some additional moisture above the cold air at the surface, particularly as we near the week before Christmas.

[arizona_sooner]

Well I think the real cold air made it as far south as eastern Oklahoma. I noticed some lows this morning in the single digits south and west of Tulsa. My old neighborhood bottomed out at 13F.

There was an interesting read from the NWS forecaster there also this morning:

"As we look ahead into the 7 to 10 day time frame, the GFS and
ECMWF look eerily similar in the overall large scale pattern, with
a huge positive tilt upper trough developing over the Western
CONUS and a storm track right overhead. It`s certainly not out of
the question we could see our first significant winter weather of
the season in week 2."

[CaptinCrunch]

Since the cloud cover never really cleared out it only got down to 28 at the house.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

40 here in Sugar Land, yeah, clouds never cleared out here at all. Still sitting at 41F now. Kinda seeing it brighten up outside some so temp may climb soon.

On another side note. weatherunderground.com has been giving my station fits. The app is clunky and the history of all of my data isnt working either. Are there any other alternatives?

[Snowman67]

I have no doubt that WX57 and his heat minions are attempting to keep all of the cold air north of us. Do not underestimate his powers. He has shown time and time again that he can do this. We have to somehow get him away from the dark side.

[Ntxw]

Hi guys, I'm new to this and I know very little about how to read and understand advanced weather stuff, but I'm a geek for cold weather and these GFS models are getting me PUMPED for Christmas time in the Frisco area!

Welcome to the board! See you decided to dive right in with your first post. Yes, the models definitely are interesting and most of us (there a few exceptions) are hoping for cold and snow in time for Christmas

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is a lot like what happened this week, next week. Weds evening cold front comes through and it's down to the 30s and 20s by Thursday morning

Meanwhile 576+ dm heights at 5h is starting to show up in the Gulf of Alaska

[Portastorm]

12z GFS is a lot like what happened this week, next week. Weds evening cold front comes through and it's down to the 30s and 20s by Thursday morning

Noticing that ... the 12z run is a bit more aggressive and faster on the cold front time frame into Texas.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is a lot like what happened this week, next week. Weds evening cold front comes through and it's down to the 30s and 20s by Thursday morning

Noticing that ... the 12z run is a bit more aggressive and faster on the cold front time frame into Texas.

There are differences at 5h from it's previous runs. Trying to cutoff a low instead of a full trough in the SW. Also the cold is a lot more sustained next week, so the cold snap will likely last longer as often the case with bleeding cold.

[CaptinCrunch]

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region on Monday behind
this aformentioned front resulting in a nice, seasonable start to
the work week. The moderating temperatures will be short-lived,
however, as yet another arctic airmass will be intruding into the
northern CONUS on Tuesday. The leading edge of this rejuvenated
cold airmass should move through North and Central Texas somewhere
during the Tuesday night into Wednesday morning time frame, but
substantial model spread and run-to-run consistency issues are
plaguing this portion of the forecast. The GFS, which has
struggled mightily over the past few days with the timing of this
arctic front has largely been ignored in this forecast package
given its very tardy frontal timing on Wednesday afternoon.
Instead, a blend of the notably faster 09/00Z ECMWF and GFS
Ensemble mean seems more reasonable, and matches up a bit better
with the 09/00Z Canadian as well. Moisture profiles look very
meager during the frontal passage, and as a result, we`ve
maintained the dry forecast during the middle of the week.

Temperatures behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday should not
be quite as cold as what we experienced this week, but will
nonetheless be about 10 to 15 degrees below average. As the cold
high pressure center migrates east of the region on Friday, return
flow and an approaching disturbance may bring about renewed
chances of showers towards the end of the week.

[Ntxw]

Verbatim from this run DFW would be in the 30s for highs from Thursday through Sunday

[ronyan]

Tanking EPO and crashing PNA.

[Brent]

Well this looks fun

[Ntxw]

And then from about 216hr on forward there is so much SE ridge that the Panhandles go from being single digits and teens to 50s/60s

It's a lot slower with things, but it looks like it may be trying to brew a Christmas eve/pre Christmas storm when the trough comes out, which by then is at 300hr+ expertise