Texas Winter 2016-2017

[starsfan65]

Wxman57 dodges a bullet this GFS run, only upper 30s and 40s biking weather then it gets to 70+ before the next front comes in Houston.

Tune in next hour to the Euro for your next episode of "As the Model Runs"

What does the 12z GFS run says?

[orangeblood]

Wxman57 dodges a bullet this GFS run, only upper 30s and 40s biking weather then it gets to 70+ before the next front comes in Houston.

Tune in next hour to the Euro for your next episode of "As the Model Runs"

What does the 12z GFS run says?

Coldest Run yet for the 10-15 day time frame...in fact, one of the coldest I've seen in a long time

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 dodges a bullet this GFS run, only upper 30s and 40s biking weather then it gets to 70+ before the next front comes in Houston.

Tune in next hour to the Euro for your next episode of "As the Model Runs"

What does the 12z GFS run says?

A lot of ridging in Alaska, next week's front is about the same as this week's front from that specific GFS run. Overall the differences in the pattern is not too big, subtle things can mean a front blasting south or stalling a little to our north. We'll pull hairs staring at the surface but the 500mb look is promising

12Z GFS actually carves a southwest trough with off the coast ridging in laland which is a better pattern for winter storm

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/8 ... 2935497728

[dhweather]

My thinking was that I'd hunker down inside and crank up the heat. Unfortunately, the ensembles are not likely handling the cold air well. I have a bad feeling about this winter...

Who are you and what have you done with wxman57 ?

[Brent]

Note that the 00Z EC is about 30-35F warmer than the GFS for next Wed/Thu across SE TX. Also note that the GFS ensembles are about the same as the EC - way warmer than the operational run. In fact, the GFS ensembles suggest no freeze in Houston through the 24th. Ensembles are my friend...

Give it a few runs sir, for all we know by lunch time today the GFS will be warmer and the Euro flips colder . It's been like this since December 1st.

Meanwhile, you should go outside and feel the wind in your hair! It's quite blustery.

We all nitpick so much on temps and model runs, we forget to go out and enjoy it, it actually feels like winter!

My thinking was that I'd hunker down inside and crank up the heat. Unfortunately, the ensembles are not likely handling the cold air well. I have a bad feeling about this winter...

I had to reread this post a few times... *marks down the date and time*

[orangeblood]

Trending in the right direction for winter weather lovers, at least according to the GFS Ensembles....Alaskan Ridge is getting stronger every run and the pacific jet appears to be breaking underneath allowing for more moisture to possibly get involved in the pattern. Look at the increase in strength of the Alaskan Ridge from 06z to 12z

06Z GEFS


12Z GEFS


Classic 500mb chart for an Arctic Outbreak into the Central US

[weatherdude1108]

Awwwh, the weather service posted info. regarding pets, and a pic.


Don't forget your pets! If it's too cold for you to be outside, it's also too cold for your pets. Make sure to provide a warm, dry place for any animals that typically stay outdoors.

[Tireman4]

My thinking was that I'd hunker down inside and crank up the heat. Unfortunately, the ensembles are not likely handling the cold air well. I have a bad feeling about this winter...

The Force of Cold is upon us young Jedi. You must shiver before you find success. Ha ha ha.

[weatherdude1108]

Ummm, Christmas Eve??

[Tireman4]

[quote="weatherdude1108"]Ummm, Christmas Eve??

Holy Mother of Pearl. We have not seen items like that in a long while. Woo Hoo. Wxman 57 is going into hibernation...I should go over there and deliver another heater..

[Brent]

Ummm, Christmas Eve??

Yeah that caught my eye too...

[Ntxw]

After spending some time outside it is cold. Its been cold some but I haven't felt uncomfortably cold like this since winter of 2013/2014. The wind really does the job

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I would walk around the front yard pantsless if that happened

[Brent]

Euro flattening the trough next week again. We just can't have both models agree.

[ronyan]

12z Euro stalls the front along the TX/OK border @ 168. But I think the cold is going to come down at the end of the run.

[Brent]

12z Euro stalls the front along the TX/OK border @ 192. But I think the cold is going to come down at the end of the run.

here it comes

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Boo that model!

[Brent]

Boo that model!

yeah really don't like how warm it is before that... why can't we get agreement for once?

at day 9 the cold finally comes down

[ronyan]

Extreme gradient, the GFS also shows that earlier on the 06z run, ~70F statewide.