Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

That's a McFarland signature, textbook

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like cross polar flow to me. The GFS isnt handling the density of the high well i think, it should be building drastically with that type of pattern. The Low could pull some of the cold air in with it east though. Yeah this run is pretty cold.

This run shows a 1050mb high in Colorado driving into TX as 1045mb, not too shabby.

I see it now, hidden behind one of the icons in the map i was using. That isnt bad at all.

[ronyan]

Brutal cold entering the CONUS at 240 hr.

Also note Chicago makes it -10F at hour 156 pretty impressive.

[Brent]

highs at DFW in the 20s at day 11...

just barely gets above freezing at day 12... widespread teens outside DFW that morning. Single digits in Oklahoma.

some -30s in North Dakota at 312 hours... wow

[Ntxw]

It's pretty crazy to see a modeled block like that up there. It's very 1983esque. I've never seen a model run prolong Alaskan blocking like this like it has been the past several days to a week. Even for model world it's very unusual.

[ronyan]

I think I'll have to stay stay up for the Euro tonight. The Alaskan ridge is just parked on GFS slowly drifting east.

[Brent]

last winter's thread had only 184 pages... we may top that before 2017 at this rate.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，if that ridge shifts right，would that be a better pattern for winter events for us? Brent， dont jinx us dude

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，if that ridge shifts right，would that be a better pattern for winter events for us? Brent， dont jinx us dude

Forget winter events, if all that happened it would likely be one of the great cold outbreaks of your lifetime

[Ntxw]

At the end of the GFS run (LaLaland) it just keeps loading more cold air anomalies in Canada.

[Golf7070]

Ntwx, what is the latest qbo reading? Any ideas?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Someone put an ice pack on Bastardi's mid section.... he can't hide his excitement on twitter!

[ronyan]

Someone put an ice pack on Bastardi's mid section.... he can't hide his excitement on twitter!

Yeah I noticed those few tweets he sent out. "Days 11-12 are Hyperborean".

[Ntxw]

Ntwx, what is the latest qbo reading? Any ideas?

+14 for November, positive phase

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Doesnt get out of the 30's in Sugar Land for next week Wednesday and Thursday. Sheesh.

Isnt there a SSW event happening near the Aleutian high? JB tweeted the 10mb earlier. Looked like one was building.

[Ntxw]

Doesnt get out of the 30's in Sugar Land for next week Wednesday and Thursday. Sheesh.

Isnt there a SSW event happening near the Aleutian high? JB tweeted the 10mb earlier. Looked like one was building.

There is/was but it's not significant enough to be connected directly. This is purely from NPO, North Pacific modes between the WPO loading it and the EPO delivering. Something about weak La Nadas after a major El Nino...1983



It's pretty rare to get a super el nino, even harder to get a weak Nina/Nada after one. Most become very strong La Ninas.

[Brent]

Euro much warmer than prior runs... ... much less of a trough Tuesday night



vs

[Ntxw]

Euro much warmer than prior runs... ... much less of a trough Tuesday night

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... p_us_7.png

vs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_25.png

It's slower than it's previous run. But do you see what's in NW Canada? It had a 1040s HP coming down. 1050+ on this run

[Ntxw]

In other news, HRRR is still trying to bring in some light snow/flurries in the morning

[Brent]

Meh where is the arctic front on the Euro... through next Thursday no sign of any real cold. Hopefully this run is a fluke.