Texas Winter 2016-2017

[srainhoutx]

HGX mentioned the "McFarland Like" upper air pattern next Tuesday/Wednesday via the 12Z ECMWF. Stepping down...

[Brent]

I'll just leave the 18Z NAM here .....

Can this be one time the nam is right? Lol please

[JayDT]

I'll just leave the 18Z NAM here .....

https://s29.postimg.org/s64gpoedz/namco ... _us_18.png

Ok, i am DEFINITELY really rooting for the NAM.. If only it could be right.

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS and RAP are colder than the NAM but also drier. A mix of those would be great, below freezing except right at the surface and >80% RH throughout the column is a pretty interesting combo.

[gpsnowman]

Cooler breezes are starting to pick up in Frisco. Lots of leaves are blowing around and off the trees. I have a 3 o'clock wake up call for work tomorrow so it should be nice and windy. To feel the wind screaming from the north is something I can not wait for. Bring it.

[starsfan65]

What is the difference between the GFS and Euro forecast models for Next week's Cold Blast?

[Brent]

What is the difference between the GFS and Euro forecast models for Next week's Cold Blast?

Not a lot. The biggest difference is the Euro is cooler before the front(50s vs. 60s). The temp drop on the GFS is a big bigger then. Timing is in good agreement on Tuesday afternoon or night.

[Ntxw]

All eyes this evening to the west and southwest to see if the little streamers over performs. Expectations are low so why not?



Even the European thinks there may be some light accums southwest of here. Best time frame would be early morning hours.

[starsfan65]

What is the difference between the GFS and Euro forecast models for Next week's Cold Blast?

Not a lot. The biggest difference is the Euro is cooler before the front(50s vs. 60s). The temp drop on the GFS is a big bigger then. Timing is in good agreement on Tuesday afternoon or night.

How low is the temps are going to be next week?

[Brent]

What is the difference between the GFS and Euro forecast models for Next week's Cold Blast?

Not a lot. The biggest difference is the Euro is cooler before the front(50s vs. 60s). The temp drop on the GFS is a big bigger then. Timing is in good agreement on Tuesday afternoon or night.

How low is the temps are going to be next week?

As of now it's not any colder than tomorrow and Friday. But we'll see how it trends.

[starsfan65]

Not a lot. The biggest difference is the Euro is cooler before the front(50s vs. 60s). The temp drop on the GFS is a big bigger then. Timing is in good agreement on Tuesday afternoon or night.

How low is the temps are going to be next week?

As of now it's not any colder than tomorrow and Friday. But we'll see how it trends.

Next week's Cold Blast could be worse than this week's blast.

[Brent]

The nam is crazy again several hours of snow in dallas lol

Continues til lunchtime even

[Ntxw]

The nam is crazy again several hours of snow in dallas lol

Continues til lunchtime even

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_12.png

The 4km NAM I think is overzealous. It has been in the past because it's resolution is too great. It may just be heavy clouds, I've seen it fail greatly in the past. The regular NAM runs is probably a little more reliable. At this range I tend to trust the RGEM and HRRR a little more

[JayDT]

Still cheering for the nam!

[Brent]

The 4km NAM I think is overzealous. It has been in the past because it's resolution is too great. It may just be heavy clouds, I've seen it fail greatly in the past. The regular NAM runs is probably a little more reliable. At this range I tend to trust the RGEM and HRRR a little more

I agree as much as I'd love for it to verify I think it's overdone here. If it does snow in Dallas my guess is just a few flakes. Even the 4km nam with all that snow has zero accumulation anywhere which makes me even more skeptical.

[Ntxw]

HRRR does have some surviving bands to perhaps some light snow or flurries? I really wouldn't mind it, we're not greedy

[Ntxw]

It's really starting to drop out there and the winds are kicking up, endless summer is over

HRRR visual to get those chestnuts roasting on an open fire going

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Its been a long summer! Just think about where we were just a month ago!

[dhweather]

It's really starting to drop out there and the winds are kicking up, endless summer is over

HRRR visual to get those chestnuts roasting on an open fire going

http://i66.tinypic.com/e81xn6.png

Is that a cat 5 in the Gulf ???

[JayDT]

It's really starting to drop out there and the winds are kicking up, endless summer is over

HRRR visual to get those chestnuts roasting on an open fire going

http://i66.tinypic.com/e81xn6.png

So the HRRR is on board too??