Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The high east of Hawaii is killing next weeks cold. Not allowing the trough to dig.

With that said, the similarities to 1983 is striking. The High moves toward Mexico just like in 1983

[Brent]

Euro again with a bigger front next Tuesday Night... highs next Wednesday struggle to get much above freezing during the day.

[Ntxw]

Euro builds more cold in Canada after next week too so the fronts would keep coming. Needless to say the very coldest air on the planet seems to have established over North America for the month of December.

[TheProfessor]

lol the 12z Euro has me seeing possibly 2-4 inches of snow, then 3 quarters of an inch of rain. Then possibly 2 more inches of snow. If that low can end up a little bit further south and east I could see a good storm. Possibly even 10-12 inches of snow if everything worked out perfectly, unfortunately that doesn't happen often.

Edit: The Same Euro run has a temperature of 1 degree Fahrenheit at 7PM Wednesday and it goes below 0 Wednesday. If any snow/water is left by then it's going to turn rock solid.

[Golf7070]

The high east of Hawaii is killing next weeks cold. Not allowing the trough to dig.

With that said, the similarities to 1983 is striking. The High moves toward Mexico just like in 1983

How do we get rid of the high east of hawaii with what type of pattern if thats hurting us? Will it even be possible?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The high east of Hawaii is killing next weeks cold. Not allowing the trough to dig.

With that said, the similarities to 1983 is striking. The High moves toward Mexico just like in 1983

How do we get rid of the high east of hawaii with what type of pattern if thats hurting us? Will it even be possible?

That High connected with the Alaskan Ridge and EPO went gangbusters negative.

[Golf7070]

The high east of Hawaii is killing next weeks cold. Not allowing the trough to dig.

With that said, the similarities to 1983 is striking. The High moves toward Mexico just like in 1983

How do we get rid of the high east of hawaii with what type of pattern if thats hurting us? Will it even be possible?

That High connected with the Alaskan Ridge and EPO went gangbusters negative.

So do we need the alaskan ridge to break down? If that happens we lose our cold air and no cross polar flow im assuming

[Ntxw]

HRRR is starting to show even some snow or flurries tonight in the I-20 corridor, west tx and parts of central tx

[Brent]

I wish the cold was more sustained.. even the euro approaches 60 again by the end of the run. 1983 was different.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

How do we get rid of the high east of hawaii with what type of pattern if thats hurting us? Will it even be possible?

That High connected with the Alaskan Ridge and EPO went gangbusters negative.

So do we need the alaskan ridge to break down? If that happens we lose our cold air and no cross polar flow im assuming

No, we need to keep the Alaskan ridge, and center it more in the EPO scope of C Alaska, albeit not a necessity.

If the ridge broke down, we would almost certainly be screwed in regards to Cold Weather unless we could get some back door -AO/+NAO trigger.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I wish the cold was more sustained.. even the euro approaches 60 again by the end of the run. 1983 was different.

1983 was different (sustained cold) because it started around 12/17 and ended around the 1st of January. It didn't start on 12/1 with a modified front.

If the 1983 analog holds up until Christmas week, I see it all coming down on top of us in Late December.

[Ntxw]

An analog shouldnt be used meaning we will repeat what happened. It should be used in the sense that the cold December pattern is likely to deliver a cold month as it has in the past

[JayDT]

HRRR is starting to show even some snow or flurries tonight in the I-20 corridor, west tx and parts of central tx

Im right by I-20 so i would like this a lot.

[weatherdude1108]

Oh the weather outside is BREEZY….and the chill is so delightful…and since we’ve got work to do…let it snow, let it snow, let’s hope so…


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
245 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016

TXZ173-191>194-204>208-221-223-080500-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WI.Y.0004.161208T1200Z-161208T2200Z/
WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
CALDWELL-WILSON-GONZALES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...FLORESVILLE...GONZALES
245 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CST
THURSDAY.

* TIMING...THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. IN
ADDITION...LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE MAY
BECOME AIRBORNE. TAKE ACTION TO SECURE THESE ITEMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 072035
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
235 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
A few weak echos starting to show up on radar this afternoon
across the southeastern counties. Isolated showers will be
possible through this area for the remainder of the afternoon and
tonight ahead of the front. The cold front is still on track to
enter the northern CWA after midnight and clear the southern CWA
before daybreak.

Colder behind the front and windy throughout the day on Thursday.
Funneling of winds along the edge of the escarpment will lead to
the strongest winds along and just east of the I-35 corridor,
where gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible. This will prompt a Wind
Advisory for this region. Temperatures on Thursday likely not to
make it out of the upper 30s across the Hill Country and low to
mid 40s elsewhere. Combined with the winds, wind chill values will
be in the mid to upper 20s across the Hill Country and 30s
elsewhere during the day on Thursday.

Models continue to indicate some light QPF being generated well
behind the front on Thursday across West Central Texas into
Central Texas, clipping the far northern CWA. This appears to be
is association with ascent near the right entrance region of an
upper level jet streak. In the cloud layer temperatures are
supportive of ice introduction. However forecast models have come
in warmer with the warm nose between 800-700mb, beneath the cloud
base, but also drier. This could result in wet bulbing but should
remain just warm enough to support a light rain or light sleet mix
using the top down approach. A slight chance of rain/sleet mix
remains in the forecast mainly north of a Fredericksburg to
Georgetown line. We anticipate ground temperatures, including
elevated structures, to remain just above freezing and combined
with the light QPF amounts do not expect any significant impacts.

Models have trended slightly stronger with the winds staying up
Friday night near and east of I-35, and also a deg or two warmer
on the overnight temps. We are still expected a widespread freeze
across the Hill Country Thursday night/Friday morning in the mid
20s, with freezing temps of 9-12 hours in this region. Along the
I-35 corridor and east, north of I-10, lows in the upper 20s to
low 30s are expected with a freeze likely in the Austin metro area
but less certain now in San Antonio. Temps farther south and along
the Rio Grande are forecast to remain just above freezing.

Wind chill values Thursday night into Friday morning will dip into
the upper teens across the Hill Country and 20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Continued cold temperatures on Friday with highs only in the 40s,
but much less wind and partially clearing skies should make it
feel warmer compared to Thursday. A return flow will set-up
Saturday and Sunday with gradually modifying temperatures. Some
slight chances for showers across the central and eastern
counties over the weekend. Models are still indicating another
front on Sunday evening.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
331 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

For tonight---The cold front is still expected to dive southward
towards the Red River over the next couple of hours and should
accelerate through the CWA as the parent upper low across the
Great Lakes slides eastward. Good pressure rises in the wake of
the front should aid in strong breezes with sustained winds of 15
to 20 MPH with gusts up towards 30 to 35 MPH. The most noticeable
forced ascent will likely occur along and just behind the front
itself and precipitation (at least initially) should be in the
form of light rain or light drizzle. Some weak synoptic scale
ascent in the form of the RRQ of an upper jet may provide
additional lift for a higher concentration of light rain across
eastern and southeastern zones. I`ve kept a mention of light rain
from the previous forecast back further to the west, but it`s
possible that only patchy drizzle occurs.

After midnight, temperatures should begin to plummet as the
colder air plunges southward into North TX. The true surface front
should have swept through the remainder of our Central TX counties
at this time. As this cold air arrives, it appears that a majority
of the strong lift will be a bit displaced further to the south.
Model (GFS and ECMWF) PoP and QPF still suggest likely PoPs along
and south of the I-20 corridor and appears to be lobe of mid-level
vorticity. This lobe, however, appears pretty diffuse and given
that I don`t buy the deep moisture advertised by the models, I`ve
undercut their PoP/QPF quite a bit in agreement with the previous
forecast and hi-res model output. With that in mind, it does
appear that there will be a juxtaposition of some pockets of
drizzle and sub-freezing temperatures and the most likely area
will be out across western zones across the Big Country. Thus,
brief periods of very light freezing drizzle are expected. If the
column is as saturated as GFS and NAM model forecast soundings
indicate, it`s conceivable that sleet would be possible with
around 2 C of warm air aloft. What I believe to be more likely,
however, is that the layer of moisture will be quite shallow
(meaning a high probability of mainly supercooled water drops)
and thus a p-type of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain.

Thursday---Through the morning hours on Thursday, colder and
deeper air will move southward. The colder air will slide further
south out across western zones before spilling over the remainder
of the forecast area through sunrise. As mentioned above, ascent
appears weak, but some hi-res model guidance is a bit more
aggressive with developing some precip along and south of a Cisco
to Meridian to Athens line. With some agreement with hi-res
models, there`s a low chance for a mix of freezing rain and/or
sleet across western zones.

Impacts of any wintry precipitation are expected to be VERY
limited given the light amounts expected. In addition, ground
temperatures remain quite warm with readings in the 50s. Breezy
north winds in the wake of the front will also make it difficult
for precipitation to accumulate on any road surfaces. That being
said, I won`t rule out a few slick spots on elevated
surfaces/structures across western and southwestern zones.
With regards to the north winds---they will be strong in the wake
of the front and I contemplated a wind advisory for a few counties
down south. After looking at the strength of the 925mb winds,
there does appear to be a signal of speeds of around 30 to 35
knots. While pressures do rise quickly, post-FROPA, the amount of
mixing should be somewhat limited given the time of day. With that
in mind, I`ll hold off on any wind advisories for now and defer to
the evening and early morning shifts. Feel-like conditions,
however, will be QUITE frigid with wind chill values in the single
digit along the Red River with teens and twenties elsewhere.
Individuals across North and Central TX will definitely want to
dress in layers when headed out early Thursday morning.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the day, though I
wouldn`t completely discount some lingering drizzle across the
area if dry air doesn`t completely scour out the low level
moisture. Thursday should be a raw and cool day with breezy north
winds continuing.

Thursday Night into Friday---Thursday night into Friday proves to
be tricky with regards to temperatures. Raw model output indicates
that it should be a very good radiational cooling night.
Inspection of forecast soundings, however, suggest that a
scattered to perhaps even broken deck of clouds will exist across
North and Central TX. With there being a good consensus among
model output and based on some MOS output, I`ve elected to nudge
temperatures upward by several degrees. That being said, it still
looks to be cold with temperatures in the 20s across a good
portion of North and Central TX. Friday should remain cold, but
dry with temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s across the area.
High pressure should settle in resulting in a slow return to south
flow through the day on Friday.

[dhweather]

I'll just leave the 18Z NAM here .....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'll just leave the 18Z NAM here .....

You know what really gives me a weather tingle down my leg? That 1058 HIGH with a 1054 HIGH behind it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS front next week, steps down the cold a tad. I wonder if the Euro really unloads it after the 0z run tonight....

[Ralph's Weather]

I'll just leave the 18Z NAM here .....

At this time it shows the Skew-T for my house along I-20 in E TX straddles the freeze line from 725mb to 975mb and rises to the mid 30s at the surface. Knock that down by a degree and that is a very different result considering it has high humidities from surface to upper atmo.