Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Yukon Cornelius]

Had an actual low this morning of 28 under thick cloud cover, with a forecasted low of 32

[gboudx]

The wintry mix has trended a bit further north overnight. Now to the southern Tarrant and Dallas county lines. Keep wishing Metroplexers.

[Ntxw]

DFW had a low this morning of 35 which surprisingly (surprising the GFS had low 40s on Sat/Sun runs) is the coldest night so far to date. It underestimated even yet this lesser air mass behind the weaker front that came through yesterday.

[Snowman67]

NWS showing a low of 18F for Weatherford, TX (West of Fort Worth) Thursday night

[orangeblood]

Looked over every member of the Euro ensembles this morning and there are some extreme members for the second surge poised to head out of the Arctic Circle middle of next week.....at least 50% of the members appear to show some of the coldest temps in years for the middle to latter part of next week. As has been discussed earlier, this pattern has the potential to go to the extreme - Today's model runs should give us a much better idea of the trajectory/magnitude of the 2nd surge next week, as we'll be within the 6-7 day window

[weatherdude1108]

Widespread freezing temperatures are expected Friday morning across the region. Mid 20s in the Hill Country to the low 30s most every where else that morning. Wind Chill readings will be in the teens and low 20s through much of the morning. Please protect the pets, plants, and pipes!

[Ntxw]

Looked over every member of the Euro ensembles this morning and there are some extreme members for the second surge poised to head out of the Arctic Circle middle of next week.....at least 50% of the members appear to show some of the coldest temps in years for the middle to latter part of next week. As has been discussed earlier, this pattern has the potential to go to the extreme - Today's model runs should give us a much better idea of the trajectory/magnitude of the 2nd surge next week, as we'll be within the 6-7 day window

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_9.png

Surprisingly though on the guidance the surface pressures are not that extreme you would think with -40C+ up north. I wonder if the models are not grasping the magnitude of the dense air? Well aside from the JMA run yesterday I posted with 1067mb. Regardless source of the cold air is very cold. Even a glancing blow would likely still make it one of the coldest air this winter.

[South Texas Storms]

Come on cold air! Need IAH to fall to freezing on Friday or Saturday morning. Looks like it's gonna be close. I'm gonna be heartbroken if it stays at 33F...

[orangeblood]

Looked over every member of the Euro ensembles this morning and there are some extreme members for the second surge poised to head out of the Arctic Circle middle of next week.....at least 50% of the members appear to show some of the coldest temps in years for the middle to latter part of next week. As has been discussed earlier, this pattern has the potential to go to the extreme - Today's model runs should give us a much better idea of the trajectory/magnitude of the 2nd surge next week, as we'll be within the 6-7 day window

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_9.png

Surprisingly though on the guidance the surface pressures are not that extreme you would think with -40C+ up north. I wonder if the models are not grasping the magnitude of the dense air? Well aside from the JMA run yesterday I posted with 1067mb. Regardless source of the cold air is very cold. Even a glancing blow would likely still make it one of the coldest air this winter.

There are some 1045-1050mb HP's sitting right over the middle of Texas for late next week....safe to assume the models are having major feedback issues with this extreme cold across Canada and some cool Northern Pacific air mixing in

[CaptinCrunch]

The arctic front will arrive this evening and have held to the
faster timing of the previous forecast which is close to the TTU
WRF and Euro timing, but faster by 3-6 hours from the NAM/GFS
models. With flow aloft nearly zonal and not much upper support,
initial shallow surges of such cold and dense airmasses are not
tracked well by most of the mainstream synoptic models. The next
challenge comes from sheared absolute vorticity and weak lift
south of I-20 and across Central Texas overnight into Thursday
morning. Intensive analysis of BUFKIT soundings across these areas
show that there will be small window for low chances of drizzle/
rain with patchy freezing drizzle/rain, with the frontal inversion
deepening enough for a brief mixture with sleet come daybreak
Thursday morning. Right now, a majority of the models precipitate
out before the sub-freezing temperatures occur. That said, there
are a few like the SREF Mean that indicate some very light
precipitation may occur afterward.

I did remove any mention of snow despite there being a cirrostratus
canopy expected overhead, as there will be a very dry layer between
700-850mb to overcome and think most ice nuclei would melt or
evaporate before making it into the low level moisture below. It
must be stated that confidence of any winter mix occurring is not
high, as model soundings do dry out low levels toward mid morning
Thursday. Areas that could be affected were generally left the
same, but have removed the patchy drizzle for Thursday afternoon.
With ground temperatures near or just below 50 degrees, any brief
impacts across the southwest counties would be elevated surfaces,
but even then by the time temps fall below 30 degrees, the
precipitation will have long ended.

Some low-mid level cloudiness will linger through much of
Thursday with clearing Thursday night into Friday. The strong
cold advection and brisk conditions will occur Thursday with highs
struggling to make it into the 30s. Frigid temperatures Friday
morning in the teens to lower 20s will be hard-pressed again to
warm a whole lot, despite some modest low level warm advection
later in the day and plentiful sunshine. It`s possible I may be
too optimistic on Friday`s highs, but I did cut guidance values
several degrees and confidence wasn`t there to go colder right
now.

We will see winds return from the south and become breezy this
weekend, as strong zonal flow aloft allows for strong lee
cyclogenesis to our northwest, while the arctic high transits
eastward across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Low level
warm advection should help to moderate the airmass across the
area with highs recovering into the 50s Saturday, then even the
lower to middle 60s on Sunday. A shortwave will move east across
the Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday with a cold front
(of non-arctic nature) arriving into the area. Enough moisture
recovery will be present across the eastern counties for some low
convective chances. Though SBCAPE will be nearly absent, there are
signs of mid level lapse rates aloft on the order of 6.5 deg C/KM
to mention at least isolated thunder. We do not expect a lot of
rain from this system, as the previous arctic front will have
scoured the better moisture from the continental shelf right off
the Texas coast.

A generally dry and seasonable week is slated ahead with highs on
55 to 65 with another strong, possible arctic front next Thursday.
The cold front late week does appear to be a dry passage, so no
concerns regarding any winter precipitation in the 7-10 day period.

[Portastorm]

I like what orangeblood and Ntxw posted above ... and I'm also seeing some nice snow cover being laid down to our northwest and north ... that should help keep next week's airmass even colder. Now, if we can just get some moisture and a noisy Southern jet over us ...

[Ntxw]

We're all watching that air mass next week Porta, we all take pause when -30 to -40C shows up near the US border. Thats 1930, 1983, and 1989 type cold sitting there

[Tireman4]

Here we go.....sliding ( stepping) down....go go go....

[JDawg512]

Had a pocket of clear skies above Austin overnight that helped to drop temps further than originally thought. Overcast skies filled back in a few hours ago locking the colder air in. 10 a.m. and still holding in the upper 40s. I doubt we will see temps get anywhere near 60 this afternoon unless we get clearing skies and it doesn't look like that is going to happen. Hopefully it will get into the mid 50s cause I still have to finish my light display and prefer temps at least 54 or higher.

[Ntxw]

Here we go.....sliding ( stepping) down....go go go....

If it goes the way of analogs we may fall down the stairs . 1983 across the board on the ensembles and superensembes is the top year showing up.

[Portastorm]

In the great "Will It or Won't It Freeze in Austin" dialogue ... 12z GFS temps lower (now showing 28-30) than the 6z and 0z runs. Perhaps this is a signal that the model is getting a better grasp on the airmass and cloud conditions? We shall see. Regardless, folks in the Austin area should plan on a freeze and take all precautions necessary.

I'm getting the sense that next week's Arctic Express is going to make this week look puny.

[South Texas Storms]

In the great "Will It or Won't It Freeze in Austin" dialogue ... 12z GFS temps lower (now showing 28-30) than the 6z and 0z runs. Perhaps this is a signal that the model is getting a better grasp on the airmass and cloud conditions? We shall see. Regardless, folks in the Austin area should plan on a freeze and take all precautions necessary.

I'm getting the sense that next week's Arctic Express is going to make this week look puny.

Yeah I think there's a pretty good chance Austin sees their first freeze tonight.

The 12z GFS says "what cold next week?". Keeps much of the cold air to our northeast.

[Ntxw]

In the great "Will It or Won't It Freeze in Austin" dialogue ... 12z GFS temps lower (now showing 28-30) than the 6z and 0z runs. Perhaps this is a signal that the model is getting a better grasp on the airmass and cloud conditions? We shall see. Regardless, folks in the Austin area should plan on a freeze and take all precautions necessary.

I'm getting the sense that next week's Arctic Express is going to make this week look puny.

Yeah I think there's a pretty good chance Austin sees their first freeze tonight.

The 12z GFS says "what cold next week?". Keeps much of the cold air to our northeast.

It doesn't like the zonal flow underneath

[Tireman4]

47
FXUS64 KHGX 071657
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast issue this morning is lingering fog over Galveston
Bay and portions of SE Harris County. Dense fog advisory has been
extended for Galveston Bay to 3PM this afternoon. Fog inland
should be eroding slowly today. Low cloud cover looks to continue
today which will limit day time heating. Max temperatures were
adjusted down a few degrees from mid/upper 60s to low/mid 60s. The
12Z LCH sounding shows quite a bit of low level moisture trapped
in the frontal inversion which will take some time to mix today.

The cold front is still on track to push through SE Texas tomorrow
AM. This will likely mean the highest temperatures will be in the
morning with temperatures slowly falling through the day. Gusty
northerly winds will certainly make it feel colder than the
temperature. Early look at 12Z guidance shows a tricky
determination of how far south freezing occurs Friday morning.
There will be strong cold advection but winds/clouds may also be a
factor. Possible that a few spots could even drop to freezing
Saturday morning.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

AVIATION...
A tough forecast today as a mix of low clouds and fog will
dominate early with some breaks in the clouds this afternoon only
for more clouds to develop early this evening. IFR/MVFR cigs to
prevail this morning as moisture remains trapped beneath a strong
cap. Some heating should help mix down some drier air and probably
raise cigs to MVFR/VFR by afternoon. Winds will remain light and
variable today. Leaned toward the Texas Tech WRF precip fields
for tonight as moisture levels deepen. Should start to see some
showers this evening especially over southern TAF sites as fcst
soundings a deepening saturated layer beneath a stout cap.
Finally, a cold front will move through the region between 08-12z.
Winds will become N-NE in the wake of the front and winds will
increase significantly. 43

[Ralph's Weather]

State wide temps ahead of and behind the front are lower than what models show for 18Z today.