Texas Winter 2016-2017

[davidiowx]

Well i really hope it does keep trending further north!

I would prefer it to keep trending SE too!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS stays chilly thru 300 hours

[Ntxw]

GFS stays chilly thru 300 hours

Cat 5 in the gulf wobble? Cat 5 being Polar vortex wobbles south its chilly, vortex wobbles east its mild . Seriously I wouldnt be making any forecasts until the Alaskan block settles

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS stays chilly thru 300 hours

Cat 5 in the gulf wobble? Cat 5 being Polar vortex wobbles south its chilly, vortex wobbles east its mild . Seriously I wouldnt be making any forecasts until the Alaskan block settles

Just connect that Baja High and Alaskan ridge and Santa will be in business!

[Brent]

GFS doesn't hit 60 at DFW until 264 hours and even that is short lived lol 59 on Sunday before another front

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

It's funny you say that because people come up to Bob all the time and say "You know Portastorm?! ... oh my gosh ... he's famous."



All kidding aside, I have been friends with Bob for many years ... since his KVUE days, long before LCRA. He's a great forecaster and a great guy.

I went to school with Bob back in the late 1970s at Texas A&M.

[Ntxw]

JMA is nuts, it's usually one of the more aggressive models. I don't think we're going to beat 1983's 1064mb but heck it's fun to look at.

[JDawg512]

I met Bob Rose when I was a kid. He was Mark Murray' s Young Gun Meteorologist @kvue. Austin had the best local weather in the Nation, Mark Murray, Connor Vernon, Troy Kimmel, Gordon Smith, Jim Spencer, Steve Rambo --all in the 1980s & 1990s! ! ! Not to mention the Lou Withrow days of Skywarn. We had it so soooo goood. Just my humble opinion. But bring on the cold, modeling and cold air never agree wholeheartedly!

Jim Spencer is a buddy of mine. I've known him for about 10 years now. The last of the Mets still on TV that I grew up watching.

Received 3.35in of rain from this last system. Not bad at all. Enough rain for a good deep soaking without localized flooding issues. Perfect timing in case temps end up reaching the freezing mark, though even if it gets that cold in my yard, it probably won't last too long. Looking forward to our next significant rainfall...

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，what do we need to watch for that may signal a pattern thats more favorable for winter events? Is it the mjo? Would that help?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，what do we need to watch for that may signal a pattern thats more favorable for winter events? Is it the mjo? Would that help?

Definitely not a 1983 or 1989 type pattern. Those are low level cold that blasts and dries out with the fronts. The pattern you want is with the big low in the southwest with a huge mid continental trough that digs from Canada to the southwest. Also ridging just off the west coast or along it.

Something like our last snowstorm...March 2015



Or Feb 2010



The Alaskan block is great for exceptional cold but not so great for snowstorms. You need the ridging to be further south in the GOA. A baja low with incoming cold is much more favorable, nearly all of DFW's top snowstorms is this baja low pattern. There isn't a signal for that type of pattern right now.

[gatorcane]

Hang in there Texans, the meat of winter is a ways away...in fact looks like Dallas had its coldest temp ever record in early to mid Feb!

Even Florida dropped to 2 degrees below zero on Feb. 13, 1899, in Tallahassee. This occurred during an Arctic outbreak during which numerous all-time record low temperatures were set, including Washington D.C. (15 degrees below zero); Atlanta, (9 degrees below zero); and Dallas (8 degrees below zero). Flurries were even reported from Tampa to New Orleans during that massive outbreak.

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/c ... -50-states

[Ntxw]

Hang in there Texans, the meat of winter is a ways away...in fact looks like Dallas had its coldest temp ever record in early to mid Feb!

Even Florida dropped to 2 degrees below zero on Feb. 13, 1899, in Tallahassee. This occurred during an Arctic outbreak during which numerous all-time record low temperatures were set, including Washington D.C. (15 degrees below zero); Atlanta, (9 degrees below zero); and Dallas (8 degrees below zero). Flurries were even reported from Tampa to New Orleans during that massive outbreak.

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/c ... -50-states

We do not speak of 1899. It is too obscene . Rated PG13

[Brent]

If only the 4km nam would verify

Taking it verbatim it snows in dallas for several hours lol

But it has no accumulation anywhere

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，what do we need to watch for that may signal a pattern thats more favorable for winter events? Is it the mjo? Would that help?

Definitely not a 1983 or 1989 type pattern. Those are low level cold that blasts and dries out with the fronts. The pattern you want is with the big low in the southwest with a huge mid continental trough that digs from Canada to the southwest. Also ridging just off the west coast or along it.

Something like our last snowstorm...March 2015

http://i63.tinypic.com/2hn6d7a.png

Or Feb 2010

http://i68.tinypic.com/242bbdt.png

The Alaskan block is great for exceptional cold but not so great for snowstorms. You need the ridging to be further south in the GOA. A baja low with incoming cold is much more favorable, nearly all of DFW's top snowstorms is this baja low pattern. There isn't a signal for that type of pattern right now.

Ntxw，like i mentioned，would a mjo in the phases to benefit us the most help to shake up the pattern somewhat? The problem is if the alaskan block breaks down，we are most likely doomed imo. There goes our cold air source for sure

[Ntxw]

If that were to happen, it would be from the over performing of this little disturbance N/NE of hawaii

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，like i mentioned，would a mjo in the phases to benefit us the most help to shake up the pattern somewhat? The problem is if the alaskan block breaks down，we are most likely doomed imo. There goes our cold air source for sure

MJO would help, also a weak El Nino would help as the subtropical jet is really good at sending baja lows

[JayDT]

If only the 4km nam would verify

Taking it verbatim it snows in dallas for several hours lol

But it has no accumulation anywhere

I really like the NAM! I'll take the NAM please, with accumulations of course.

[Brent]

Climo says December isn't really a snowy month anyway... the better months are usually January and especially February but I've also heard a lot of talk of this winter being frontloaded so we'll just have to see what happens. I'm hoping one of these moisture starved systems such as Thursday morning overperform that seems to be our best shot in this pattern.

Like was said yesterday we actually need some warmth ahead of a cold system to get real moisture for a bigger potential storm which is a big part of what's lacking here.

[weatherdude1108]

I met Bob Rose when I was a kid. He was Mark Murray' s Young Gun Meteorologist @kvue. Austin had the best local weather in the Nation, Mark Murray, Connor Vernon, Troy Kimmel, Gordon Smith, Jim Spencer, Steve Rambo --all in the 1980s & 1990s! ! ! Not to mention the Lou Withrow days of Skywarn. We had it so soooo goood. Just my humble opinion. But bring on the cold, modeling and cold air never agree wholeheartedly!

Jim Spencer is a buddy of mine. I've known him for about 10 years now. The last of the Mets still on TV that I grew up watching.

Received 3.35in of rain from this last system. Not bad at all. Enough rain for a good deep soaking without localized flooding issues. Perfect timing in case temps end up reaching the freezing mark, though even if it gets that cold in my yard, it probably won't last too long. Looking forward to our next significant rainfall...

Jim Spencer is awesome. Love his forecasts. As far as rain, I got 2.25 total on my end of town. I had standing water in low spots in backyard for a day and a half straight before it soaked in. Makes a difference when the trees and grass are going dormant and don't soak up the water as much.

[Brent]

0z Euro has another arctic front next Tuesday Night now. Has DFW with a high barely above freezing next Wednesday(just north of Dallas doesn't make freezing) and lows well down in the 20s(remember it has a low of 30 on Friday when the forecast is 10 degrees colder...). Not much warmth(above average) to be found