Texas Winter 2016-2017

[xironman]

Wow 12z GFS wants me to see some near 0 temps the day before and on the day I will be flying back to Texas. That would make the 20 degrees in Texas feel warm.

Columbus Ohio? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KCMH

Code: Select all

 KCMH   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/05/2016  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192     
      TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  34  43| 26  40| 25  32| 19  31| 18  34| 20  40| 28  37| 24 26 42
 TMP  38  39| 27  35| 27  26| 21  25| 20  31| 23  36| 31  32| 26     
 DPT  30  36| 21  20| 20  15| 13  14| 13  17| 15  25| 24  23| 19     
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV     
 WND   9  11| 14   8|  9  17| 15  13|  8   7|  6  13| 15  11|  5     
 P12  12  99| 14   7| 20  18| 26  24| 14  30| 44  61| 46  18| 31 30 32
 P24      99|     19|     21|     26|     30|     67|     68|       45
 Q12   0   4|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   2|       |         
 Q24       4|      0|      0|      0|      0|      2|       |         
 T12   0   1|  0   0|  1   1|  1   1|  0   1|  0   2|  2   1|  0     
 T24        |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  4    |  1     
 PZP   4   1|  5   1|  1   2|  1   1|  3   4|  6   9| 10   5|  8     
 PSN  18   0| 24  88| 92  92| 91  93| 89  87| 86  65| 30  72| 66     
 PRS   8   0| 32   5|  3   3|  3   3|  3   5|  4   0| 22   7|  9     
 TYP   R   R| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S| RS   S|  S     
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      1|       |         
                                                                     



[Brent]

Forget arctic fronts, felt nippy going out for lunch.

Sure is... the clouds and drizzle is adding another layer. Definitely feels like winter this year...

It's been so warm for so long I'm feeling it harder to get used to even though I've been wanting cold for so long.

Everyone at work was talking about how cold it was Saturday and I was just like "wait til next week"

I can't even imagine how the 20s with howling north winds is gonna feel...

[gatorcane]

Lots of really cold air building up on the GFS and ECMWF models after this artic blast but it appears the latest models keep it bottled up across the Northern CONUS and Canada.

[Ntxw]

Lots of really cold air building up on the GFS and ECMWF models after this artic blast but it appears the latest models keep it bottled up across the Northern CONUS and Canada.

Its really good we are building anomalous cold in Canada. That is what made 2013/2014 a successful winter along with the -EPO. If you get ridging in Alaska it will come at the surface even with an unfavorable 500mb pattern. Thats what 1983/1989 did.

Last year there was no cold in Canada, constantly 10s and 20s up there so when the pattern was favorable, all we could manage was 'slightly warmer than normal' vs much above normal..

[gpsnowman]

Cold and rainy afternoon in Frisco currently. Loving the bonus rain as this system passes through. I didn't think we would see much today looking at radar earlier. And now we wait for some cold. I work at 5 Thursday morning so the wind chills should be darn cold by then. Bring it.

[Brent]

FWD's AFD hitting the cold pretty hard

Temperatures will plummet Wednesday night will blustery north
winds. Wind chills will be in the teens for the Thursday morning
commute, and those who have to be outdoors should plan
accordingly. Although the sun will come out on Thursday, afternoon
temperatures will be in the 30s with a biting wind.

With clear skies, light winds, and skin-cracking dew points in the
teens, radiational cooling will be in full force Thursday night.
Friday morning will be the coldest morning since the winter of
2014-2015 with much of the region seeing temperatures in the
teens. The current forecast low temperature at DFW Airport and
Waco is 20 degrees. If either site dips into the teens, it would
be the first occurrence since January 2015. That was also the most
recent teens for Sherman/Denison, where the forecast low Friday
morning is 18 degrees.

[Longhornmaniac8]

EWX mentioning POPs and the possibility of light frozen precip across northern CWA after FROPA in afternoon FD.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Mostly cloudy on Wednesday with a few showers possible across the
east and highs in the low to mid 60s. A stronger cold front is
still on track to move through the area late Wednesday night.
Breezy to windy post-frontal north winds will occur over the area
late Wednesday night through Thursday. A few showers will be
possible Wednesday night east of I-35. Cloudy and much colder on
Thursday with highs only in the 40s for most locations. Wind
chill values will be many degrees colder during the day on
Thursday, in the low to mid 30s north and upper 30s to low 40s
south.

The ECMWF and GFS for the past few runs have been showing some
light QPF across West-Central Texas late Wednesday night through
Thursday associated with some ascent in the right rear quadrant of
an upper level jet streak, along with a mid level moisture pool.
Both models indicate the possibility of some of this moisture
working into portions of Central Texas and far northern areas of
the Hill Country. Forecast soundings suggest temperatures cold
enough in the cloud layer to support ice crystal growth across
the far northern CWA Thursday morning but differ in thermal
profile, potential wet-bulbing, and dry layer in the sub cloud
layer. Due to uncertainty have kept forecast all liquid for now
through the northern Hill Country early Thursday.

A freeze is expected across the Hill Country Thursday night and
likely along portions of the I-35 corridor from New Braunfels to
Georgetown. There is a good potential some areas farther south and
east of these locations, as well as the Rio Grande, could also
experience a freeze. Continued cold temperatures on Friday, but
much less wind and sunny skies should make it feel warmer compared
to Thursday.

[Brent]

and the 18z GFS says keep the shorts around in the LR... I think wxman57 hacked this run...



It does have the day 10 front but it's not as extreme and warms up rapidly and massive torch the week before Christmas.

[starsfan65]

and the 18z GFS says keep the shorts around in the LR... I think wxman57 hacked this run...



It does have the day 10 front but it's not as extreme and warms up rapidly and massive torch the week before Christmas.

i think he did hacked the run

[TheProfessor]

Wow 12z GFS wants me to see some near 0 temps the day before and on the day I will be flying back to Texas. That would make the 20 degrees in Texas feel warm.

Columbus Ohio? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KCMH

Code: Select all

 KCMH   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/05/2016  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192     
      TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  34  43| 26  40| 25  32| 19  31| 18  34| 20  40| 28  37| 24 26 42
 TMP  38  39| 27  35| 27  26| 21  25| 20  31| 23  36| 31  32| 26     
 DPT  30  36| 21  20| 20  15| 13  14| 13  17| 15  25| 24  23| 19     
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV     
 WND   9  11| 14   8|  9  17| 15  13|  8   7|  6  13| 15  11|  5     
 P12  12  99| 14   7| 20  18| 26  24| 14  30| 44  61| 46  18| 31 30 32
 P24      99|     19|     21|     26|     30|     67|     68|       45
 Q12   0   4|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   2|       |         
 Q24       4|      0|      0|      0|      0|      2|       |         
 T12   0   1|  0   0|  1   1|  1   1|  0   1|  0   2|  2   1|  0     
 T24        |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  4    |  1     
 PZP   4   1|  5   1|  1   2|  1   1|  3   4|  6   9| 10   5|  8     
 PSN  18   0| 24  88| 92  92| 91  93| 89  87| 86  65| 30  72| 66     
 PRS   8   0| 32   5|  3   3|  3   3|  3   5|  4   0| 22   7|  9     
 TYP   R   R| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S| RS   S|  S     
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      1|       |         
                                                                     



Colder temps don't occur on the run till around the 14th or 15th, hours 240 and 252. I fly out on the evening of the 15th. This only goes out 192 hours so it missed what I was talking about. 12z GFS had a temp of 2 degrees at 12z(7AM my time) I'll be up by then as I'll ironically have my Atmo final to take that morning. Temps on Campus can also fall around a degree less than it does at the Downtown. The Airport(KCMH) is East of downtown and in this case the temperatures on the 12z GFS slightly warms as you get further east. Anyways 1-2 Fahrenheit would near zero in my diction. Of course it could end up 40 degrees as 240 hours is still very far out(Although signs are points of there at least being some kind of arctic outbreak).

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Euro weeklies are out Entire nation below normal on average with plenty of snow next 46 days. Coldest run I have seen for similar period.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

AO is trying to make up its mind.

[gatorcane]

and the 18z GFS says keep the shorts around in the LR... I think wxman57 hacked this run...



It does have the day 10 front but it's not as extreme and warms up rapidly and massive torch the week before Christmas.

No kidding, monster ridge like something you would see in the middle of summer

But it is also 312 hours and likely to change next run

[Rgv20]

Has anyone seen the 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run? It has some very cold temperatures for much of the US in the long range...basically from Day 10 thru 15 Texas is in an ice box!

[weatherdude1108]

OK, who's tired of winter already? This cold rain sucks. Had a comp day scheduled for today but decided to go to work instead vs. sitting at home stuck in the house. We should see a break in the rain through the rest of this week. Moderate cold front arrives Wed/Thu. Doesn't look like a freeze, though (Houston).

Yay, look who's back?!

We are preparing a lovely month ahead of weather for you.

Welcome back sir! As much as some of us like to poke cold fun at the heat miser, I truly do value your wisdom and expertise. We missed ya!

[Brent]

The 10-day GFS is just polar opposite of last night's run at the exact same time... cold air stays bottled up and we torch. It's really unbelievable to see how different the pattern is 4 runs later... the 0z last night had the polar vortex in the Upper Plains... this run has a giant Bermuda high.

What to believe lol

this run is a complete disaster beyond 240 hours. Fortunately its beyond 240 hours.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I simply don't believe a torch with how cold the air is coming down from Canada. EPO isn't Uber positive, WPO stays neutral to negative, PNA stays neutral, AO is neutral to negative and NAO is 1sd above normal.

That doesn't make any sense to me given the cold that is there.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Canadian and Euro chuckle at this....

[Brent]

I simply don't believe a torch with how cold the air is coming down from Canada. EPO isn't Uber positive, WPO stays neutral to negative, PNA stays neutral, AO is neutral to negative and NAO is 1sd above normal.

That doesn't make any sense to me given the cold that is there.

Right I just don't believe it either. What amazes me is how the GFS just flipped from one extreme to another just like that.

Like you said it doesn't have any support.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Staying consistent...