Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That is some cold air coming down, no trough to really drive it into the state though, only 37 here in Sugar Land on raw output.

Would be great for snow cover though

[wxman57]

OK, who's tired of winter already? This cold rain sucks. Had a comp day scheduled for today but decided to go to work instead vs. sitting at home stuck in the house. We should see a break in the rain through the rest of this week. Moderate cold front arrives Wed/Thu. Doesn't look like a freeze, though (Houston).

[dhweather]

Just looked at the 0Z runs of the GFS, good lord, if that verifies, just in temperatures, that will be brutal. Waiting for the 12Z to finish rolling in and see what it says.

[Portastorm]

OK, who's tired of winter already? This cold rain sucks. Had a comp day scheduled for today but decided to go to work instead vs. sitting at home stuck in the house. We should see a break in the rain through the rest of this week. Moderate cold front arrives Wed/Thu. Doesn't look like a freeze, though (Houston).

Yay, look who's back?!

We are preparing a lovely month ahead of weather for you.

[dhweather]

OK, who's tired of winter already? This cold rain sucks. Had a comp day scheduled for today but decided to go to work instead vs. sitting at home stuck in the house. We should see a break in the rain through the rest of this week. Moderate cold front arrives Wed/Thu. Doesn't look like a freeze, though (Houston).

Yay, look who's back?!

We are preparing a lovely month ahead of weather for you.

Early Monday morning and someone is already into the Grey Goose.

[Ntxw]

Just looked at the 0Z runs of the GFS, good lord, if that verifies, just in temperatures, that will be brutal. Waiting for the 12Z to finish rolling in and see what it says.

Its running a similar pattern like the previous run. Upper air is not great for deep cold very zonal, but low level is bleeding cold because Canada is brutal.

[CaptinCrunch]

Fortunately, models have finally come into better agreement on the
frontal passage timing with the GFS moving into line with the
later ECMWF solution. A pre-frontal trough will slide through the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon causing winds to turn to the
north in advance of the true cold front. The true front will plow
into North TX Tuesday evening and clear our southern zones just
after midnight. Strong winds of 20-30 mph and higher gusts should
accompany this frontal passage which will result in very strong
cold advection. Temperatures should fall into the upper 20s and
low 30s by Thursday morning, and with winds expected to remain
gusty well behind the frontal zone, wind chills in the teens and
low 20s can be expected for most areas. As strong cold advection
continues through the day, many locations will not make it out of
the 30s except for some of our Central TX counties that may reach
the low 40s. Have continued to undercut all temperature guidance
as raw models and MOS struggle with extreme changes and large
departures from normal.

Winds will lessen Thursday night and Friday morning as surface
high pressure becomes centered over southern OK. Light north winds
will be in place, and with clear skies and very dry surface air
(dewpoints in the low teens), favorable radiational cooling should
cause temperatures to plummet. Have drastically undercut guidance
once again on Friday morning with my only fear being that I didn`t
go cold enough. Current forecast lows at DFW and Waco are around
20 degrees which would be the coldest temps since January 2015.

High pressure will shift eastward on Friday and Saturday allowing
a slight warming trend to begin. Highs on Friday should return to
the 40s; 50s should return by Saturday along with better moisture
as well. Strong warm/moist advection within a 40kt low-level jet
could result in some scattered showers across East TX Saturday
afternoon and into Sunday, therefore have continued some low PoPs
but no thunder mention. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest that some
widespread rain could occur on Sunday and Monday along a quasi-
stationary frontal zone draped through the plains, but it appears
most of this activity would be to our east with much of North and
Central TX left in a drier airmass.

[Ntxw]

Ryan Maue tweeted the anom departures from the GFS along the US Canadian border for mid month showing -50 to -70 departures being near record cold. That's saying a lot given 1983 and 1989 are December benchmarks. We've all seen this very cold air by various guidance

With the ENS and some OP runs depicting healthy -EPO ridge, needless to say whatever happens late week is merely a small taste of something much colder

[Tireman4]

OK, who's tired of winter already? This cold rain sucks. Had a comp day scheduled for today but decided to go to work instead vs. sitting at home stuck in the house. We should see a break in the rain through the rest of this week. Moderate cold front arrives Wed/Thu. Doesn't look like a freeze, though (Houston).

Oh boy..here we go again. You know you have had it easy the past two years. Last year's Winter was a joke. My goodness. LOL

[dhweather]

Just looked at the 0Z runs of the GFS, good lord, if that verifies, just in temperatures, that will be brutal. Waiting for the 12Z to finish rolling in and see what it says.

Its running a similar pattern like the previous run. Upper air is not great for deep cold very zonal, but low level is bleeding cold because Canada is brutal.

Just saw it, Lots of cold coming in the next couple of weeks.

[Ntxw]

Dewpoints later this week should be close to 0 at some point. Chap lips and static shocks

[vbhoutex]

Ryan Maue tweeted the anom departures from the GFS along the US Canadian border for mid month showing -50 to -70 departures being near record cold. That's saying a lot given 1983 and 1989 are December benchmarks. We've all seen this very cold air by various guidance

With the ENS and some OP runs depicting healthy -EPO ridge, needless to say whatever happens late week is merely a small taste of something much colder

Yep, those of us in SE TX know this time of the year as the "step down" meaning each successive front/surge gets us just a little cooler, lays down more snow to our North and thus as we progress we have less modification of each cold air mass. Will we get record breaking temps early next year(normally our coldest time). Who knows, but we are definitely into what we call WINTER in SE TX.

[Ralph's Weather]

Wednesday still looks mildly interesting as far as wintery precip is concerned. Right now I would expect the precip to outrun freezing temps. If we could moisten up the mid levels (800 to 600mb) then this would be a better event. The upper levels are great for snow, mid levels too dry and surface borderline with temps in the 30s but with moisture.

[Brent]

OK, who's tired of winter already? This cold rain sucks. Had a comp day scheduled for today but decided to go to work instead vs. sitting at home stuck in the house. We should see a break in the rain through the rest of this week. Moderate cold front arrives Wed/Thu. Doesn't look like a freeze, though (Houston).

Yay, look who's back?!

We are preparing a lovely month ahead of weather for you.

[TheProfessor]

Wow 12z GFS wants me to see some near 0 temps the day before and on the day I will be flying back to Texas. That would make the 20 degrees in Texas feel warm.

[Ntxw]

Wednesday still looks mildly interesting as far as wintery precip is concerned. Right now I would expect the precip to outrun freezing temps. If we could moisten up the mid levels (800 to 600mb) then this would be a better event. The upper levels are great for snow, mid levels too dry and surface borderline with temps in the 30s but with moisture.

If there were some higher moisture to stream in then the area to watch is to the southwest if some sneaky moisture plume gets drawn in from a disturbance passing through

[Stormnut]

Euro running yet?

If so how's it look?

[Brent]

Euro running yet?

If so how's it look?

Nothing really earth shattering.

It's warmer Thu/Fri than the forecasts.

warms up this weekend, then a lesser front next Monday drops it back near normal. The arctic front if it shows up will be at the very end of the run.

[Texas Snowman]

@RyanMaue - Heart of cold air over Canada is -38°C at 850-hPa pressure level. Meteorologists look for -40°C to assign "old-timers" label.
Next week:

[Ntxw]

Forget arctic fronts, felt nippy going out for lunch.