Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，u mentioned the -wpo transferring to a -epo. Why is that? U think it goes back to a -wpo later? Im sorta confused. Im hoping we see some winter event if it does get cold

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，u mentioned the -wpo transferring to a -epo. Why is that? U think it goes back to a -wpo later? Im sorta confused. Im hoping we see some winter event if it does get cold

-WPO is what is the Aleutian ridge is. When it pokes into Alaska you get some -EPO. WPO remains negative. When the EPO decides to dip negative too thats when cold discharges south.

[BigB0882]

That snow in SELA on the 17th would be a miracle since we have our Christmas party that night. However, at 13 days out I don't think I will hold my breath. lol

[Golf7070]

Ntxw， i forgot to ask you. Does the eps and gefs support the euro and gfs with extreme cold in that timeframe advertised coming south?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/805603565641273344

[Golf7070]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/805603565641273344

Thanks for information. He didnt mention past day 10 and thats where the euro and gfs show the next blast.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Wow. What a difference a week makes. Now up to 4" of rain from 2 storms and cold stratiform rain over cold-air-damming continues for 2 more days. Most fires are out now. Amazing what low pressure all the way over in NW Mexico can do to our weather. Seriously cold too. Not over 37 degrees today and lows possibly in single digits by Friday morning

[TheAustinMan]

NAM 12km depicting a snow band stretching across Texas in four days... well, at least that's what TropicalTidbits thinks. The model run depicts no accumulation though.

[Brent]

did anyone notice the NAM? It has a snow band from DFW to Austin Thursday morning as the arctic front passes

Edit: What he said lol

[Brent]

GFS showing another major arctic front at 240 hours... has some 60s and even 70s before that for a couple days. DFW goes from the mid 70s to the teens in 18 hours.

[JayDT]

did anyone notice the NAM? It has a snow band from DFW to Austin Thursday morning as the arctic front passes

Edit: What he said lol

That would be awesome if it actually did snow! If only the NAM was more trustworthy...

[JayDT]

GFS showing another major arctic front at 240 hours... has some 60s and even 70s before that for a couple days. DFW goes from the mid 70s to the teens in 18 hours.

WOW! Now that would be a major arctic front!

[Brent]

Euro is warmer... DFW only gets down to 30 this run on Friday. Thursday stays above freezing. Highs around 40 both days. Well into the 60s by Sunday on both the GFS and Euro. 70s next Monday on the Euro.

[Lagreeneyes03]

did anyone notice the NAM? It has a snow band from DFW to Austin Thursday morning as the arctic front passes

Edit: What he said lol

That would be awesome if it actually did snow! If only the NAM was more trustworthy...

Isn't the NAM more reliable in the shorter range?

[Ralph's Weather]

did anyone notice the NAM? It has a snow band from DFW to Austin Thursday morning as the arctic front passes

Edit: What he said lol

That would be awesome if it actually did snow! If only the NAM was more trustworthy...

Isn't the NAM more reliable in the shorter range?

It usually is though we are not in what I would call short range for the NAM. It typically is good with Arctic fronts within a couple days so I will be watching it closely as we get closer.

[orangeblood]

Week 2 appears to be a great case study in how bitterly cold/dense airmasses drain southward under their own weight, despite the Upper Level Pattern showing the contrary. Example is the latest GFS run which has extremely below normal 2M temps but above normal 500 mb heights. Need subtropical moisture to get involved in order to create an overrunning type event but might have trouble with that pesky Baja Ridge getting stronger

2M Temp Anomalies


500 MB Anomalies

[DonWrk]

Ah yes orangeblood chiming in on the winter thread, you know it's about to get good when that happens!

[weatherdude1108]

I know this is 252 hours out, but the OOz GFS had some crazy temps! Teens in Dallas area, 20 near Austin.

[Ntxw]

NWS FW is significantly undercutting guidance using conventional wisdom that cold, dense air beats models and forecasting to have near 20F at DFW Friday. GFS and Euro were warmer, while Canadian is more in line. It will be interesting to see who wins.

[gboudx]

NWS FW is significantly undercutting guidance using conventional wisdom that cold, dense air beats models and forecasting to have near 20F at DFW Friday. GFS and Euro were warmer, while Canadian is more in line. It will be interesting to see who wins.

And this blurb suggests they think it could be in the teens instead of 20.

Have drastically undercut guidance once again on Friday morning with my only fear being that I didn`t go cold enough.