Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

FWD's AFD earlier:

Low temperatures on Friday morning
should be in the 20s area-wide with some teens possible in North
TX. Have undercut all temperature guidance, but still may not have
gone cold enough. Raw models and MOS can struggle mightily with
anomalous temperature forecasts like this and we`ll probably get
quite a bit colder than what they`ve been advertising so far.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS trended colder with the freezing line very near Galveston Island.

[Ntxw]

Holy smokes at the latter half of the euro run all the coldest air of the globe just about entrenches in North America. Thats got to be one of the most expansive cold I've seen on a model run, maybe Feb 2011 came close with area coverage.

[JayDT]

FWD's AFD earlier:

Low temperatures on Friday morning
should be in the 20s area-wide with some teens possible in North
TX. Have undercut all temperature guidance, but still may not have
gone cold enough. Raw models and MOS can struggle mightily with
anomalous temperature forecasts like this and we`ll probably get
quite a bit colder than what they`ve been advertising so far.

So basically they think its gonna be colder than what the models are currently showing?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holy smokes at the latter half of the euro run all the coldest air of the globe just about entrenches in North America. Thats got to be one of the most expansive cold I've seen on a model run, maybe Feb 2011 came close with area coverage.

I dont know if we could draw it up any better for absolute cold air as it shows at 240 hours. Woah.

[dhweather]

FWD's AFD earlier:

Low temperatures on Friday morning
should be in the 20s area-wide with some teens possible in North
TX. Have undercut all temperature guidance, but still may not have
gone cold enough. Raw models and MOS can struggle mightily with
anomalous temperature forecasts like this and we`ll probably get
quite a bit colder than what they`ve been advertising so far.

So basically they think its gonna be colder than what the models are currently showing?

Odds are it will be. Models often struggle with these arctic airmasses. Won't be surprised if we flirt with 20-22 in the metroplex. But even if we only get to 24, that's really cold for us.

[Brent]

FWD's AFD earlier:

Low temperatures on Friday morning
should be in the 20s area-wide with some teens possible in North
TX. Have undercut all temperature guidance, but still may not have
gone cold enough. Raw models and MOS can struggle mightily with
anomalous temperature forecasts like this and we`ll probably get
quite a bit colder than what they`ve been advertising so far.

So basically they think its gonna be colder than what the models are currently showing?

Odds are it will be. Models often struggle with these arctic airmasses. Won't be surprised if we flirt with 20-22 in the metroplex. But even if we only get to 24, that's really cold for us.

Remember last year the airport only got to 27... so compared to the last year or so of warmth this is gonna feel even more brutal

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Coldest temp last year at TPB weather center was 33. The lizards are out of control in my backyard. Time for them to go.

[JayDT]

FWD's AFD earlier:

Low temperatures on Friday morning
should be in the 20s area-wide with some teens possible in North
TX. Have undercut all temperature guidance, but still may not have
gone cold enough. Raw models and MOS can struggle mightily with
anomalous temperature forecasts like this and we`ll probably get
quite a bit colder than what they`ve been advertising so far.

So basically they think its gonna be colder than what the models are currently showing?

Odds are it will be. Models often struggle with these arctic airmasses. Won't be surprised if we flirt with 20-22 in the metroplex. But even if we only get to 24, that's really cold for us.

20 degrees would be great! The colder, the better But yeah, 24 would still be very cold.

[Ntxw]

Holy smokes at the latter half of the euro run all the coldest air of the globe just about entrenches in North America. Thats got to be one of the most expansive cold I've seen on a model run, maybe Feb 2011 came close with area coverage.

I dont know if we could draw it up any better for absolute cold air as it shows at 240 hours. Woah.

That is because the Euro and its ensembles translates the -WPO into some -EPO

[Ntxw]

Not often you see North America colder than North Asia but that looks like what could happen from both the Euro and GFS. All of it is drained over to our side of the hemisphere. To be seen how much of it comes but that is some hard to deny highly anomalous cold air settled by mid month. Whatever is coming now is just the tip of the iceberg in W Can it seems.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Will we ever get any precipitation to go along with this cold? Or will it just be wasted? From what I can see, the models look pretty dry....*sigh*.

[Brent]

GFS just unloads the Arctic in the long range(much colder than next week) but now it's time for some precip to show up.

[Ntxw]

Will we ever get any precipitation to go along with this cold? Or will it just be wasted? From what I can see, the models look pretty dry....*sigh*.

Odds are not as great when its already been cold..see 1983 and 1989. Cool, stable air just isn't as moist as if it were really warm beforehand. It will be below normal anyway leading up to these fronts.

[starsfan65]

Will we ever get any precipitation to go along with this cold? Or will it just be wasted? From what I can see, the models look pretty dry....*sigh*.

Odds are not as great when its already been cold..see 1983 and 1989. Cool, stable air just isn't as moist as if it were really warm beforehand. It will be below normal anyway leading up to these fronts.

What is the wind chill going to be on Thursday and Friday Morning?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Softball Thursday night will NOT be fun

[Portastorm]

GFS just unloads the Arctic in the long range(much colder than next week) but now it's time for some precip to show up.

I'm hoping the pattern lays down a snowpack to our northwest and north otherwise these Arctic air masses will modify. We need that natural refrigerant to keep the air icy cold. And then we need some moisture around here.

[Ntxw]

Will we ever get any precipitation to go along with this cold? Or will it just be wasted? From what I can see, the models look pretty dry....*sigh*.

Odds are not as great when its already been cold..see 1983 and 1989. Cool, stable air just isn't as moist as if it were really warm beforehand. It will be below normal anyway leading up to these fronts.

What is the wind chill going to be on Thursday and Friday Morning?

In the teens. But the coldest period will likely be under the high pressure dome with maximum radiation cooling and little to no wind

[Ntxw]

There is it is y'all, arctic high is building now oozing all that cold Alaska air which is marching in NW Canada after being modeled for a good 1-2 weeks now.



1049HP and building that crossed over from Siberia in northern Alaska marching E/SE from WPC surface analysis

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Who's looking for moisture ? We know this will not happen