Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#461 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:51 pm

lrak wrote:Prayers for him and his family.


Forgive me for asking, but is something going on with Wxman 57?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#462 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:08 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
lrak wrote:Prayers for him and his family.


Forgive me for asking, but is something going on with Wxman 57?


Yes, he is dealing with a family emergency we are not free to divulge at this time. Please keep his family in your thoughts and prayers.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#463 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:19 pm

Pretty quiet in here today with respect to model discussion.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#464 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:33 pm

GFS keeps DFW in the 30s Thursday, it warms up into the mid 50s by Saturday, and then another front hits... next Sunday and Monday''s highs are barely in the 40s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#465 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:44 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Pretty quiet in here today with respect to model discussion.


Some important college football games today! Plus there really isn't too much to add to what we've gutted every frame of every run for :lol:. Likely coldest air and first arctic blast mid to late this week. Colder than anything we saw last year, GFS is slighter warmer than the Euro, Canadian is crazy cold. All of them range from 1045-1053 In Montana/Wyoming. All three of them, as of now, looks mostly dry
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#466 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:01 am

I really hope IAH records its first freeze of the season with this strong front. If it does, I'll win our contest. Bring on the cold!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#467 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:11 am

FWD has 25 at DFW Friday morning which would beat last winter :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#468 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:24 am

Looks like the GFS may have scored a coup for my area. Was hoping for snow showers at least. :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#469 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:45 am

Brent wrote:FWD has 25 at DFW Friday morning which would beat last winter :lol:


New York City is also waiting on their first freeze too! DFW would likely hit it a couple of days before them, which the airport hasn't had a freeze yet either so diving right in for the hard freeze. GFS doesn't want to get much colder for them either around 30, at least until their next blast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#470 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:02 am

Ntxw wrote:
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Pretty quiet in here today with respect to model discussion.


Some important college football games today! Plus there really isn't too much to add to what we've gutted every frame of every run for :lol:. Likely coldest air and first arctic blast mid to late this week. Colder than anything we saw last year, GFS is slighter warmer than the Euro, Canadian is crazy cold. All of them range from 1045-1053 In Montana/Wyoming. All three of them, as of now, looks mostly dry


What's college football?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#471 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:11 am

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Pretty quiet in here today with respect to model discussion.


Some important college football games today! Plus there really isn't too much to add to what we've gutted every frame of every run for :lol:. Likely coldest air and first arctic blast mid to late this week. Colder than anything we saw last year, GFS is slighter warmer than the Euro, Canadian is crazy cold. All of them range from 1045-1053 In Montana/Wyoming. All three of them, as of now, looks mostly dry


What's college football?


lol I grew up a horns fan and it's been a sad 7 years. I'm excited for Tom Herman, he was our OC when OSU won the National Title in 2014.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#472 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:28 am

Euro pretty consistent... DFW hits freezing for the first time Thursday morning then highs in the mid to upper 30s. Mid 20s Friday morning. Friday afternoon is just as cold as Thursday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#473 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:32 am

Brent wrote:Euro pretty consistent... DFW hits freezing for the first time Thursday morning then highs in the mid to upper 30s. Mid 20s Friday morning. Friday afternoon is just as cold as Thursday.


0z euro is probably low 20s in the northern burbs. Still dry
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#474 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:34 am

Upper 20s Saturday morning too and highs look to still be in the low to mid 40s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#475 Postby Golf7070 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:41 am

Ntxw, what do we need to watch for that indicates a better chance at a winter event in a pattern?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#476 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:44 am

Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw, what do we need to watch for that indicates a better chance at a winter event in a pattern?


5h vorticity needs to dig down into Az/NM or northern Mexico. Right now most guidance has it going from NV/UT to OK/KS. Overall it's been very dry though on the guidance, not the big winter storm you usually see. Wonder if the rains this weekend scours the atmosphere ahead of the surging front? It's not exactly that warm now and won't be even before the front. Usually big storms feed off the arctic front and very warm air ahead of it for this time of year. Day before 2013 ice storm DFW hit 79F on the 4th
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#477 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:56 am

Ntxw wrote:
Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw, what do we need to watch for that indicates a better chance at a winter event in a pattern?
Day before 2013 ice storm DFW hit 79F on the 4th


That's still crazy for me to think about since I wasn't here then... I remember it being near record heat in Alabama too but we never had anything wintry, so to flip like that out here is insane. :lol:

Not much else on the 0z Euro... dry front next Sunday(not as cold), highs below average the entire run after the Wednesday front(which the Euro still insists DFW hits the 60s before it). Mid 50s at 240 hrs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#478 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:16 am

It was 75F the day before the Christmas eve blizzard in 09 too on the 23rd...but the big daddy of all temperature swings at DFW was Feb 1996. 8F (also the last time DFW was in single digits 20 years ago now). Then at the end of the month on the 25th DFW had a record high of 95F...there's been a few wild temperature swings.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#479 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:32 am

Ntxw wrote:It was 75F the day before the Christmas eve blizzard in 09 too on the 23rd...but the big daddy of all temperature swings at DFW was Feb 1996. 8F (also the last time DFW was in single digits 20 years ago now). Then at the end of the month on the 25th DFW had a record high of 95F...there's been a few wild temperature swings.


Yeah, it's a lot more common here than Alabama(we were always protected), but still... and I was JUST wondering the last time DFW had single digits. :lol:

Looking at weather underground it appears DFW flipped back after that 95 a week later reported a little snow. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#480 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:45 am

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:FWD has 25 at DFW Friday morning which would beat last winter :lol:


New York City is also waiting on their first freeze too! DFW would likely hit it a couple of days before them, which the airport hasn't had a freeze yet either so diving right in for the hard freeze. GFS doesn't want to get much colder for them either around 30, at least until their next blast.


Pretty remarkable that my locale in Northeast Florida has measured its first freeze of the season and New York City and most you in Texas have yet to have your first freeze. It is not often you have this that is for sure.
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