Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Why are we putting stock into a model (gFS) that is cold one run, less cold the next, then cold, then less cold again? Thats not good consistency.

If even with a glancing blow, 1045+ hp and a cold source region isnt going to be a low of 31F. I understand skepticism because of last winter but this is not last winter, it is this winter.

[starsfan65]

Why are we putting stock into a model (gFS) that is cold one run, less cold the next, then cold, then less cold again? Thats not good consistency.

It is doesn't makes sense.

[gatorcane]

The GFS ensembles are now favoring amplification of the trough further east which like the GFS operational sends the core of the cold northeast of Texas but the Deep South and Southeastern CONUS would see some impressive cold anomalies with this setup:

[Kennethb]

Not to make everyone jealous, but Hawaii is expecting a heck of a snowstorm and with south winds:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
420 AM HST FRI DEC 2 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE...WILL
RESULT IN BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS
ABOVE 11000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HIZ028-030400-
/O.EXT.PHFO.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-161204T0400Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
420 AM HST FRI DEC 2 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 11000 FEET.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...LOW VISIBILITY AND WIND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...NEW ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

* TIMING...THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS DRIVING AND HIKING CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY
SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND FREEZING FOG.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

[Rgv20]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I remember the GFS 2 years ago having a major cold outbreak in the long range only to loose it or shunting it east to quickly in the medium range and then playing catch up as the time nears...I know the GFS has had some major upgrades but lets see how this potential cold outbreak plays out.

[Ntxw]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I remember the GFS 2 years ago having a major cold outbreak in the long range only to loose it or shunting it east to quickly in the medium range and then playing catch up as the time nears...I know the GFS has had some major upgrades but lets see how this potential cold outbreak plays out.

It will be a good test since all of the model upgrades. Canadian and Euro are one camp right now GFS doing its own thing. All three drive big HP into Montana but the GFS quickly wants to shunt it east with zonal flow

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That ridge makes absolutely no sense given the strength of the High and the - PNA.....

[srainhoutx]

I see no significant changes via the 12Z GEFS. That ensemble suggest the cold, dense and shallow air will spill S well into Mexico along the lee side of the Rockies. Even the 500mb anomalies suggest an almost continues feed of fresh Arctic air spilling across the Arctic from Eurasia/Siberia into Alaska and Western Canada into mid December.

[Ralph's Weather]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I remember the GFS 2 years ago having a major cold outbreak in the long range only to loose it or shunting it east to quickly in the medium range and then playing catch up as the time nears...I know the GFS has had some major upgrades but lets see how this potential cold outbreak plays out.

It will be a good test since all of the model upgrades. Canadian and Euro are one camp right now GFS doing its own thing. All three drive big HP into Montana but the GFS quickly wants to shunt it east with zonal flow

Japanese and Navy models also oppose the GFS solution. This clearly appears to be headed straight down the Plains, can't wait.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh man. Here we gooooooo!

You guys know the GFS ALWAYS loses these systems or storms in the 5-7 day range. Im not worried. That Euro run though. Goodness that looked good.

[Brent]

Euro is running, almost to the front Wednesday...

[aggiecutter]

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z Euro is not amplifying the trough as much out through 144 hours, caving some to the GFS?

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 12Z Euro is not amplifying the trough as much out through 144 hours, caving some to the GFS?

We arent looking at the trough as much as the HP system. Where it goes is where the coldest air will drive. A 1050hp in Montana is more favorable for us than in North Dakota. Cold dense air outruns the upper pattern

[srainhoutx]

Euro suggests 1055+ Arctic high pressure from Eastern Alaska to Wyoming. Look out below!

[gatorcane]

Yikes

[Ntxw]

Euro just overwhelms everything with cold. Not too much different than 0z

[Texas Snowman]

Hmmmmmm.

Euro, GFS, Crazy Uncle CMC, Navy, etc. - which model is right and how can we know what winter weather is potentially heading our way?

With that debate looming, it might be time to reintroduce my idea for a 57 PWC Discomfort Index (maybe we could call it the 57-PDI?) from a few years ago. The one where the likelihood of an impending winter weather event (cold front, snow, ice, etc.) increases or decreases based upon the number of and volume of complaints being lodged from a certain warm corner of the state.

You know, it's kind of the winter weather version of seeing a debris ball showing up on radar.

[Brent]

Euro still only 33-34 degrees at DFW Thursday

[Texas Snowman]

Yikes

I don't know, looks like pretty good bicycle riding weather to me.