Texas Fall-2016

[JDawg512]

I just wanted to let everyone know that I'm safe. If the attack had happened an hour later I would have been on my way to Atmo class, which is about 2 minutes from where everything happened. Also I would take the 12z GFS for Ohio in a heartbeat.

Very glad to hear that you are okay and very sad about what happened.

I hadn't been on during the extended Holiday weekend so I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving!

We missed the rain altogether in the Austin area with this so called "front" and really didn't see a lot with the front last week. While there were some isolated spots that got over half an inch to almost an inch, I only got 0.02" with two very brief downpours that litterally lasted at most a minute. The upcoming system this weekend really needs to step it up with rain over central/south central Texas or the topsoil will really dry out. I had to water on Saturday, something I was hoping I wouldn't need to do. Might just go ahead and water on Wed just in case we don't get much rain over the weekend.

[weatherdude1108]

I just wanted to let everyone know that I'm safe. If the attack had happened an hour later I would have been on my way to Atmo class, which is about 2 minutes from where everything happened. Also I would take the 12z GFS for Ohio in a heartbeat.

You were definitely in my thoughts this morning and am glad to hear you're okay!

I just saw the news story about this. Another sad and senseless act! I don't get it. Thanks for letting us know you are okay!

Back to Fall weather, I'm looking forward to cold rain this weekend!

Today it started out breezy and muggy 60s with RH in the 80s. Now it's in the dry 70s with RH in the 20s and a good breeze. Feels like West Texas hit Austin.

[weatherdude1108]

I just wanted to let everyone know that I'm safe. If the attack had happened an hour later I would have been on my way to Atmo class, which is about 2 minutes from where everything happened. Also I would take the 12z GFS for Ohio in a heartbeat.

Very glad to hear that you are okay and very sad about what happened.

I hadn't been on during the extended Holiday weekend so I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving!

We missed the rain altogether in the Austin area with this so called "front" and really didn't see a lot with the front last week. While there were some isolated spots that got over half an inch to almost an inch, I only got 0.02" with two very brief downpours that litterally lasted at most a minute. The upcoming system this weekend really needs to step it up with rain over central/south central Texas or the topsoil will really dry out. I had to water on Saturday, something I was hoping I wouldn't need to do. Might just go ahead and water on Wed just in case we don't get much rain over the weekend.

I didn't see your post JDawg512 until I posted mine. Sorry about that. Yeah, I hope the models come to fruition with the rain! We really need a good soil moisture profile heading into Winter.

[Ntxw]

I hate to jinx the possibility, but I am keeping a close eye on this weekend's storm. A cutoff low moving NE out of Mexico in winter often brings surprises. 45 and rain then dynamic cooling as the center of the upper low passes overhead often results in surprise snow. Not saying it is likely but it is something to watch wherever the center of the low tracks.

850s are just cold enough (-1/-2C) but surface low is a little too far ahead. Subfreezing surface temps are nearby in West Texas. If we can develop the surface low a little stronger and a tad slower it might work. Still a far shot though. Hard to forecast no less, since it will cutoff first in northern Mexico before kicking out with the incoming trough.

[Ntxw]

Maybe this is the first OP run from the Euro of the arctic front? 60s/70s ahead, 40s/30s and even 20s behind it. We've been seeing a lot of talk about ENS and pattern recognition.

Mike Ventrice always has some of the best visuals over at WSI

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/803335705678282754

[Ralph's Weather]

850s are just cold enough (-1/-2C) but surface low is a little too far ahead. Subfreezing surface temps are nearby in West Texas. If we can develop the surface low a little stronger and a tad slower it might work. Still a far shot though. Hard to forecast no less, since it will cutoff first in northern Mexico before kicking out with the incoming trough.

These are some of my favorite type storms to track because as you said conditions have to come together perfectly and the models just don't have enough data points in Mexico to be of much use. Anywhere NW of a Del Rio to Texarkana line typically has shot in this scenario. Just watching for the surface low to track more over E TX than LA and for the 500mb to be a bit stronger. This will just be the teaser for what is to come later in the month once we get Arctic air involved. Hoping that it is not purely NW flow though we have seen some nice high ratio snows with stronger shortwaves in that flow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS, Euro and CMC are all in line... From this Wednesday onward, the warmest we will be in Montgomery County will be around 65 this week.... Steps down into the 40s/low 50s this weekend, and stays in the 50s/low 60s until the evening of the 8th where we don't see the 50s again through the end of the GFS run...

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 282040
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The frontal boundary has pushed through the CWA with breezy
west-northwest winds in place behind the front. Temperatures have
warmed into the 70s and lower 80s with dewpoints down into the
30s and 40s. These values are combining to create relative
humidity values in the 18-25 percent range across much of the
area. This in combination with the breezy winds are creating
elevated fire weather conditions, but fuels remain pretty moist
and am not anticipating any products needed. Temperatures tonight
will fall into the 40s and 50s with the dry air in place and wind
speeds diminishing.

For tomorrow, warm conditions are expected once again with
temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. There should be some
moisture return in the eastern zones and some of the high-res
guidance is showing some isolated activity. Think some of this is
over done, as the current atmosphere is pretty dry but will only
mention isolated showers with a 10 PoP. Another trough will pass
through the central plains Tuesday night and will send a
reinforcing cold front with a trajectory more from the north which
should mean even cooler air. The front should push through the
area by sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Conditions behind the front should be dry with highs only in the
60s. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 30s across much of the
region with a light freeze possible for the northern Hill Country.
Not anticipating any locations reaching the freezing mark which
did not get a freeze last week and thus no Freeze Warnings are
expected. Another day in the 60s is expected Thursday afternoon
before moisture rapidly returns ahead of the next storm system.

Models are in good agreement that on Friday morning a strong
trough will be over the western conus moving east and will remain
to our west through at least Saturday. With a surface high to our
northeast, northeast winds are expected across the area. This
setup will create a overrunning rain event beginning Friday
afternoon and will overspread much if not all the area on
Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the 60s but will then struggle
to get out of the 40s on Saturday with a cold rain expected.
Models then diverge with the handling of the trough beyond
Saturday with the GFS keeping the trough to our west through
Monday which would keep high PoPs in the forecast through early
next week. The ECMWF on the other hand brings the trough through
the area by Sunday morning, ending rain chances. Looking into the
individual ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF provide no
clarity as most if not all those individual solutions supports the
corresponding deterministic model. Will continue to side with a
consensus forecast Sunday and Monday until there is more
confidence in one particular solution between the guidance.

[Tireman4]

187
FXUS64 KHGX 281720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1120 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.AVIATION...
A dry line is approaching SE TX and this feature could trigger
additional shra/iso tsra early this aftn. Capping over the
southern 2/3rds of the region will limit the southward extent of
the thunder and will keep KIAH southward as VCSH.A tight pressure
gradient will remain in place for much of the aftn and strong SW
winds will prevail through about 21-22z before wind speeds begin
to relax. Lighter winds expected overnight and fcst soundings show
clearing skies. SREF ensembles favor some patchy fog near the
coast and added MVFR fog at KLBX. Mstr levels begin to increase
again on Tuesday and clouds are expected to return by mid morning.
43

&&

[weatherdude1108]

Frozen precip so close, at 372 hours!

[Ntxw]

Ringing back the past because frankly it's fun . But early (through 10 days of December) there was a lesser arctic blast that hit originating from the very cold air mass in Western Canada December of 1983 not unlike the air mass forming in the coming days before the infamous blast after mid month which is too obscene to map. To get a second half like a 1983 the Aleutian ridge must progress and connect to the subtropical ridge into Alaska.



What is rarely mentioned is that before this arctic front in 1983 there were tornados from the system kicking head of the airmass in southeast Texas, totaling 12 around December 10th followed by a snowstorm in northeast Texas dumping 4-8" of snow

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ringing back the past because frankly it's fun . But early (through 10 days of December) there was a lesser arctic blast that hit originating from the very cold air mass in Western Canada December of 1983 not unlike the air mass forming in the coming days before the infamous blast after mid month which is too obscene to map. To get a second half like a 1983 the Aleutian ridge must progress and connect to the subtropical ridge into Alaska.



What is rarely mentioned is that before this arctic front in 1983 there were tornados from the system kicking head of the airmass in southeast Texas, totaling 12 around December 10th followed by a snowstorm in northeast Texas dumping 4-8" of snow

I was 1.5 years old in that storm, and I swear, I remember walking through 7 inches of snow as a toddler in Longview. My Mom has a picture somewhere, let me see if she can send it to me.

[Portastorm]

850s are just cold enough (-1/-2C) but surface low is a little too far ahead. Subfreezing surface temps are nearby in West Texas. If we can develop the surface low a little stronger and a tad slower it might work. Still a far shot though. Hard to forecast no less, since it will cutoff first in northern Mexico before kicking out with the incoming trough.

These are some of my favorite type storms to track because as you said conditions have to come together perfectly and the models just don't have enough data points in Mexico to be of much use. Anywhere NW of a Del Rio to Texarkana line typically has shot in this scenario. Just watching for the surface low to track more over E TX than LA and for the 500mb to be a bit stronger. This will just be the teaser for what is to come later in the month once we get Arctic air involved. Hoping that it is not purely NW flow though we have seen some nice high ratio snows with stronger shortwaves in that flow.

I'm fairly certain you DON'T want strong surface cyclogenesis in the Gulf if you're looking for a good snow event courtesy of an upper low. The stronger the Gulf low, the weaker the upper low will be as it transfers its energy into the surface low. Maybe some kind of general troffiness in the Gulf and along the coast would be more conducive to a strong upper low maintaining its structure as it moves west to east across the state.

[Ntxw]

I'm fairly certain you DON'T want strong surface cyclogenesis in the Gulf if you're looking for a good snow event courtesy of an upper low. The stronger the Gulf low, the weaker the upper low will be as it transfers its energy into the surface low. Maybe some kind of general troffiness in the Gulf and along the coast would be more conducive to a strong upper low maintaining its structure as it moves west to east across the state.

Yeah that's a general good rule to follow. It's all very marginal anyway, perhaps if we can get a stronger neg tilt trough it might work out. If the models are underestimating cold source, or strength of vorticity may turn out different. Will be a cold, wet weekend for most regardless. With the very warm fall it will feel odd having to wear a jacket in the middle of the day.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm fairly certain you DON'T want strong surface cyclogenesis in the Gulf if you're looking for a good snow event courtesy of an upper low. The stronger the Gulf low, the weaker the upper low will be as it transfers its energy into the surface low. Maybe some kind of general troffiness in the Gulf and along the coast would be more conducive to a strong upper low maintaining its structure as it moves west to east across the state.

No def not in the Gulf, need it to develop in South Texas but track up through CS to Texarkana or so. Hopefully the Euro vs GFS battle on how the upper low will progress once it reaches N Mexico will be resolved at least somewhat by midweek.

[CaptinCrunch]

This is the last 2 paragraphs from the FTW NWS AFD this afternoon.

Warm moist air will begin to overtop the cooler near-surface
airmass in earnest on Friday night as a robust trough axis begins
to drop into northern Mexico. As this occurs, showers will
proliferate, leading to what can only accurately be described as
an exceptionally raw fall Saturday with high temperatures
possibly struggling to get out of the 40s in spots. At this time,
it appears the deeper cold air will remain locked up to our north
leaving us with an all liquid precip type , but some upper 30s
are not out of the question across our northeastern counties
Saturday morning.

The forecast gets a bit more muddled by Sunday as discrepancies
among the global guidance increase. The ECMWF continues its
progressive tune on today`s 28/12Z run, pushing the trough axis
east of us on Sunday. The GFS and Canadian, on the other hand,
keep a deep closed low churning over Sonora/Chihuahua, Mexico. Out
of deference to the GEFS (GFS Ensemble), and NAEFS (a combination
of the GEFS and Canadian ensembles), which remain in good
agreement with their respective parent models, this forecast will
continue the unsettled forecast with 20-30% PoPs into Monday.

[Ntxw]

Taking a look at forecasted temps for the Alaskan WFO's shows significant area of -30s to -50s below zero temps. Parts of the Kobuk river valley may even go as low as -60s! That's the air mass that will make it's way into Canada.

I say we sponsor a trip for our venerable wxman57 for some sampling to improve the in-house PWC model.

[Portastorm]

Ah, that looks like it would be lovely bike-riding weather for our friend wxman57, doesn't it?! An excellent idea Ntxw. Maybe I should get a GoFundMe page going in his behalf.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I looked at the HRRR this morning and it looks absolutely identical to what is going on now with the storms approaching the SE. Bravo.

[Lagreeneyes03]

This is the last 2 paragraphs from the FTW NWS AFD this afternoon.

Warm moist air will begin to overtop the cooler near-surface
airmass in earnest on Friday night as a robust trough axis begins
to drop into northern Mexico. As this occurs, showers will
proliferate, leading to what can only accurately be described as
an exceptionally raw fall Saturday with high temperatures
possibly struggling to get out of the 40s in spots. At this time,
it appears the deeper cold air will remain locked up to our north
leaving us with an all liquid precip type , but some upper 30s
are not out of the question across our northeastern counties
Saturday morning.

The forecast gets a bit more muddled by Sunday as discrepancies
among the global guidance increase. The ECMWF continues its
progressive tune on today`s 28/12Z run, pushing the trough axis
east of us on Sunday. The GFS and Canadian, on the other hand,
keep a deep closed low churning over Sonora/Chihuahua, Mexico. Out
of deference to the GEFS (GFS Ensemble), and NAEFS (a combination
of the GEFS and Canadian ensembles), which remain in good
agreement with their respective parent models, this forecast will
continue the unsettled forecast with 20-30% PoPs into Monday.

If we could just skip over the "cold rain" phase of winter and get right to the snow and ice, that'd be great. Cold Rain. Worst. Weather. Ever.