Texas Fall-2016

[Brent]

This isn't encouraging either, hope its wrong:

[Yukon Cornelius]

This isn't encouraging either, hope its wrong:

From what I've seen this has been what they have been forecasting since October. Definitely discouraging.

[Brent]

its back lol but a million hours out. Next weekend is still just a chilly rain.

[Ntxw]

I'm never too concerned with the CPC/NOAA forecasts seasonally. I've followed it for years and their 3 month outlooks is always a probability forecast and it is always ENSO climo that mirrors the IRI which does ENSO outlooks. The weekly forecasts by the CPC is much more accurate. Don't forget they called for a colder than normal winter last year and a warmer than normal in 2013.

ENSO climo is a good stepping stone to use, but it doesn't include the seasonal variability of the teleconnections.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see a rather potent 1050+ Polar High settling into Montana in the extended range. Patience grasshoppers, colder air is coming...

[Portastorm]

Starting to see a rather potent 1050+ Polar High settling into Montana in the extended range. Patience grasshoppers, colder air is coming...

This time of year, when I see srainhoutx has posted ... I know it usually means good things!

Stepping down!

[Ntxw]

Even the CFSv2 monthly surface temperatures, which historically loves to blowtorch all the time, is seeing the very cold December. You know it's bad when a warm model sees cold



There really isn't a global model out there (that is respectable) that sees a warm December

And that look is the dagger cold down the middle of the continent. It's often problematic when you see just the US and or southern US cold. Often times that's just subtropical cloudy cold. But most has Canada frigid as well meaning real arctic air.

And really after about Tuesday or so (once the storm passes) is the end of the above normal strings of days. Most days after that average below normal. December will start off with some healthy below normal departures which begins Thursday.

[gpsnowman]

According to NBC 5 this morning our "stepping down" moment might come next weekend with temps not getting out of the 40's and a chance of rain. Brrrr. Here's hoping.

[Brent]

definitely not a warm look on the GFS anytime soon... may not be super cold either but definitely not above normal. Next weekend looks like a very cold rain.

[Ntxw]

Yeah lets see if we can string together more than a few days of below normal days. Gone are the torches, it is really nice to see that North America can get cold again. I'm never as worried about our specific locale as long as we can get some anomalous cold up north. It is so tough to get real cold when Canada is so warm. Mostly why the middle week storm hasn't been more buzz. Heights above are low but no source region to work with yet.

[Ntxw]

Crazy uncle model with a 1061mb in the long range crossing over from Siberia...The Euro had 1057mb last night.

[Brent]

Euro is also a cold rain that lingers into the work week after next weekend. 4 days with highs in the 40s probably at DFW.

[South Texas Storms]

More very cold air heading south out of NW Canada at the end of the 12z Euro run. Second run in a row.

[Ntxw]

More very cold air heading south out of NW Canada at the end of the 12z Euro run. Second run in a row.

It is cross polar flow coming out of North Asia. I think models are still rushing it a bit but close to mid month I would not surprised if some kind of arctic outbreak occurs.



Just have not seen NW Canada get that cold since the Nuri outbreak like it will be here.

[Brent]

still hasn't cracked 60 north of DFW yet... even at lunchtime there was fog. Still a big change from most of the last few months.

[starsfan65]

How much are going to get tomorrow night thru Monday morning?

[Ntxw]

How much are going to get tomorrow night thru Monday morning?

How much as in temps? It's going to be mid 60s through Tuesday then 50s through the end of the week. By the weekend highs will be in the 40s and stay there for a couple of days. Rain is intermittent on and off.

I keep saying this but the guidance has Western Canada extremely cold. -20s and -30s in southern/southwest Canada is not normal. It is for Northern Canada and even for them that's below normal. The risk for an arctic outbreak is definitely increasing.

[starsfan65]

How much are going to get tomorrow night thru Monday morning?

How much as in temps? It's going to be mid 60s through Tuesday then 50s through the end of the week. By the weekend highs will be in the 40s and stay there for a couple of days. Rain is intermittent on and off.

I keep saying this but the guidance has Western Canada extremely cold. -20s and -30s in southern/southwest Canada is not normal. It is for Northern Canada and even for them that's below normal. The risk for an arctic outbreak is definitely increasing.

How much rain?

[Brent]

How much are going to get tomorrow night thru Monday morning?

How much as in temps? It's going to be mid 60s through Tuesday then 50s through the end of the week. By the weekend highs will be in the 40s and stay there for a couple of days. Rain is intermittent on and off.

I keep saying this but the guidance has Western Canada extremely cold. -20s and -30s in southern/southwest Canada is not normal. It is for Northern Canada and even for them that's below normal. The risk for an arctic outbreak is definitely increasing.

How much rain?

in the metro probably not a lot tomorrow night.... maybe an inch in spots. Probably closer to a half inch.

[Ntxw]

BRRR that's cold! Mountainous but the -40s for this part of Canada is near record lows. But more importantly notice the large amount of real estate the cold dome of HP influence