Texas Fall-2016

[Golf7070]

That's fun to look at but it's 384 hrs out and in 6z. Get that look 240hrs out and im sold. Ntwx, what you think about the SSW with that image you posted the other day? That's the key in us getting colder on a longer duration

[Brent]

6z GFS had highs in the 30s(!!) To open December. That's under 300 hours

[Golf7070]

NTXW, do me a favor and go read Anthony masiello's Twitter page with his tweets today and see if you can make light of what he is saying. Some of that goes over my head lol.

[Brent]

FWD issued a bear watch lol


The extended models continue to indicate that things could get a
bit more interesting at the very end of the month with a strong
low pressure system developing across the Central Rockies on
Monday the 28th. If this system develops as indicated it will
likely bring the Front Range of Colorado its first significant
snow of the season and should bring the Southern Plains,
including North and Central Texas, rain and thunderstorms followed
by cold temperatures to start December. This potential system
will need to be watched closely in the coming days.

79

[Brent]

0z GFS almost snows into N TX on December 4th/5th... definitely a snowstorm in W TX, Amarillo, and in Oklahoma. Very cold at the least. There's actually one frame with a few flakes in Denton and west of Fort Worth at 348 hrs

[Ntxw]

Just a fun post since its the first time this season any model has a visual. Warning all fantasy.

Backwards S Mcfarland signature pattern we love to point out




Can you imagine if we took the 588+dm ridge and nudged it up a little bit more to Alaska? You'd have 1983 redux






Always fun to play around with the EPO domain. Still a long way off, first we have some storms to follow with the block.

[starsfan65]

Just a fun post since its the first time this season any model has a visual. Warning all fantasy.

Backwards S Mcfarland signature pattern we love to point out

http://i67.tinypic.com/2evyjxv.jpg


Can you imagine if we took the 588+dm ridge and nudged it up a little bit more to Alaska? You'd have 1983 redux

http://i67.tinypic.com/6gybl2.png

http://i66.tinypic.com/2m47m91.png
http://i64.tinypic.com/29xyi4g.png

Always fun to play around with the EPO domain. Still a long way off, first we have some storms to follow with the block.

when is going to start getting much colder?

[Ntxw]

Just a fun post since its the first time this season any model has a visual. Warning all fantasy.

Backwards S Mcfarland signature pattern we love to point out

http://i67.tinypic.com/2evyjxv.jpg


Can you imagine if we took the 588+dm ridge and nudged it up a little bit more to Alaska? You'd have 1983 redux

http://i67.tinypic.com/6gybl2.png

http://i66.tinypic.com/2m47m91.png
http://i64.tinypic.com/29xyi4g.png

Always fun to play around with the EPO domain. Still a long way off, first we have some storms to follow with the block.

when is going to start getting much colder?

It's a gradual process. Started with this weekend. Another little front just before Thanksgiving and probably a bigger front with the storm much talked about after next weekend on the last few days of the month.

[starsfan65]

Just a fun post since its the first time this season any model has a visual. Warning all fantasy.

Backwards S Mcfarland signature pattern we love to point out

http://i67.tinypic.com/2evyjxv.jpg


Can you imagine if we took the 588+dm ridge and nudged it up a little bit more to Alaska? You'd have 1983 redux

http://i67.tinypic.com/6gybl2.png

http://i66.tinypic.com/2m47m91.png
http://i64.tinypic.com/29xyi4g.png

Always fun to play around with the EPO domain. Still a long way off, first we have some storms to follow with the block.

when is going to start getting much colder?

It's a gradual process. Started with this weekend. Another little front just before Thanksgiving and probably a bigger front with the storm much talked about after next weekend.

probably severe weather first then cold rain.

[Ntxw]

probably severe weather first then cold rain.

Yep, and won't be completely out of the question the storm(s)/cold air could be in place further south for at least the threat of early season wintry weather through the first week of December.

[starsfan65]

probably severe weather first then cold rain.

Yep, and won't be completely out of the question the storm(s)/cold air could be in place further south for at least the threat of early season wintry weather through the first week of December.

We should get a little rain along the front Tuesday then we got a big storm system on Dec. 3rd and 4th that hit us with rain and the Texas panhandle is going to hit with snow.

[Brent]

Not to take away from the fantasy land hype... but a day 2 slight has been issued by the SPC south of the DFW metroplex including Waco and Austin.

[aggiecutter]

Not in fantasy land, very beneficial rains are on the way for those portions of Texas who are in a severe drought:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Loving the setups that the long range is showing us. The -EPO is showing up alot more on the models now. Also, my warm pool which i love to bore you guys with that vanished in the GOA, well its starting to warm again. The warm area that was NW of Hawaii is shifting NE and is beginning to warm the region again. Very very good news and great timing. This will help develop ridges in Alaska.

[Ntxw]

Loving the setups that the long range is showing us. The -EPO is showing up alot more on the models now. Also, my warm pool which i love to bore you guys with that vanished in the GOA, well its starting to warm again. The warm area that was NW of Hawaii is shifting NE and is beginning to warm the region again. Very very good news and great timing. This will help develop ridges in Alaska.

I don't know to what effect this has on us but the Indian Ocean is fairly cool. I don't remember a time its been cool at all, it's been getting warmer and warmer since I have tracked it in general.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Loving the setups that the long range is showing us. The -EPO is showing up alot more on the models now. Also, my warm pool which i love to bore you guys with that vanished in the GOA, well its starting to warm again. The warm area that was NW of Hawaii is shifting NE and is beginning to warm the region again. Very very good news and great timing. This will help develop ridges in Alaska.

I don't know to what effect this has on us but the Indian Ocean is fairly cool. I don't remember a time its been cool at all, it's been getting warmer and warmer since I have tracked it in general.

Would this be an effect from La Nina? With warmer water to its east in the area of Indonesia? Dont know much about the effects from the Indian Ocean. Does it have an effect on the MJO?

[Ntxw]

Would this be an effect from La Nina? With warmer water to its east in the area of Indonesia? Dont know much about the effects from the Indian Ocean. Does it have an effect on the MJO?

It probably does have an effect on the MJO. I'm not sure if it's ENSO related. It is just something I have not seen before for as long as I have been tracking. You'd have to go back to the 90s I think for any meaningful cool there. The Indian Ocean has been unusually warm for a long time. It may mean something, it may mean not much at all, just a curious observation!

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see encouraging signs via the morning Update GFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs suggesting a significant pattern change to a colder regime has potential as we transition to the Winter Weather thread.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Very interesting. I dont fully understand the dynamics of that area of the globe but if you have never seen it this cool that is interesting. Perhaps La nina is effecting it. Stronger surface high in the southern ocean bringing more Antarctic water northward? Looking at the models, it looks like not much goes on in that region other than the ITCZ. No real upper level highs or lows lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I continue to see encouraging signs via the morning Update GFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs suggesting a significant pattern change to a colder regime has potential as we transition to the Winter Weather thread.

I see you lurking 1983....


Ntx, isnt there something called the Indian ocean diopole or something? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Dipole )