Texas Fall-2016

[Brent]

GFS remains cold and unsettled to open December... I'm very interested in this timeframe.

and yes right now it has 40s and rain but that's probably a good thing lol

[Ralph's Weather]

Already down to 35 outside of town around here.

[Portastorm]

What's the story of the Gray Goose again? I don't think I was on this thread back when it started.

I can't recall how many years ago it was now but Joe Bastardi used to refer to cross-polar flow and the subsequent downstream CONUS temps as "vodka cold." The phrase started getting used here and, being a Grey Goose fan, I put the two together and used the reports of Grey Goose trucks dropping off shipments at the PWC as a sign of growing confidence in cold air coming. Some folks asked why not Tito's or Deep Eddy ... but using Texas-made vodka just didn't seem right. So that is the tired old story.

[Brent]

Watching this snow at the OU game in West Virginia got me excited lol So much better than all this record warmth.

[Ntxw]

Ntwx, Mike ventrice seemed intrigued about the stratosphere and troposphere coupling soon. What are your thoughts in that? Do you still like realistically 1983 as analog?

I've been a believer of the near record snow extent/advance. Knew deep down the blocky pattern would manifest itself it just took a little time. We're going to see that. 1983 is still a viable analog and I would even argue we are seeing more blocking than that year (AO was predominantly positive then) so more opportunities for winter storms. Now if you're taking about the historic December mid month freezer outbreak...that's questionable. But all signs look good if you like it cold and potentially wintry. I'd hedge coldest, stormiest December since 2013, maybe give 2009 a run for it's money.

November will go out with a bang, and December comes in like a lion. Definitely a storm worth watching.

[starsfan65]

Ntwx, Mike ventrice seemed intrigued about the stratosphere and troposphere coupling soon. What are your thoughts in that? Do you still like realistically 1983 as analog?

I've been a believer of the near record snow extent/advance. Knew deep down the blocky pattern would manifest itself it just took a little time. We're going to see that. 1983 is still a viable analog and I would even argue we are seeing more blocking than that year (AO was predominantly positive then) so more opportunities for winter storms. Now if you're taking about the historic December mid month freezer outbreak...that's questionable. But all signs look good if you like it cold and potentially wintry. I'd hedge coldest, stormiest December since 2013, maybe give 2009 a run for it's money.

November will go out with a bang, and December comes in like a lion. Definitely a storm worth watching.

I agree that November will go out with a bang.

[Ntxw]

I agree that November will go out with a bang.

Yep it's been consistent in the modelling for some time now. Might be a newsworthy system.

[starsfan65]

I agree that November will go out with a bang.

Yep it's been consistent in the modelling for some time now. Might be a newsworthy system.

How big the news it could be?

[JayDT]

So is it one storm system to end November and another one to start December? Or is it both the same storm system? Either way im starting to get excited about December! I hope the excitement will be worth it though. I just love cold weather so much

[Brent]

It's still fantasy land but the signal is strong that there could be 2 storms... the first one brings in the cold air as the calendar flips and then possibly another one a couple days later. Cold and active is the message whether it's actually wintry or not remains to be seen.

I'm ready for a cold December, I wasn't here in 2013 and 2009, and rarely in Alabama was it cold.

[Ntxw]

So is it one storm system to end November and another one to start December? Or is it both the same storm system? Either way im starting to get excited about December! I hope the excitement will be worth it though. I just love cold weather so much

The pattern will be blocked up. Hard to pin one storm but there will likely be several in succession. At the very least many will see a cold rain and possibly severe weather. As for the wintry aspects we won't have a good idea on that until within 100 hours or so. By thanksgiving day we will start to get a better feel on it for the days after

[starsfan65]

So is it one storm system to end November and another one to start December? Or is it both the same storm system? Either way im starting to get excited about December! I hope the excitement will be worth it though. I just love cold weather so much

The pattern will be blocked up. Hard to pin one storm but there will likely be several in succession. At the very least many will see a cold rain and possibly severe weather. As for the wintry aspects we won't have a good idea on that until within 100 hours or so. By thanksgiving day we will start to get a better feel on it for the days after

We are in secondary severe weather season.

[Brent]

So is it one storm system to end November and another one to start December? Or is it both the same storm system? Either way im starting to get excited about December! I hope the excitement will be worth it though. I just love cold weather so much

The pattern will be blocked up. Hard to pin one storm but there will likely be several in succession. At the very least many will see a cold rain and possibly severe weather. As for the wintry aspects we won't have a good idea on that until within 100 hours or so. By thanksgiving day we will start to get a better feel on it for the days after

We are in secondary severe weather season.

It's been eerily quiet nationwide so far... gotta wonder if it's gonna flip to active for somebody anyway. As has been discussed in this thread already, the southeast can't even buy rain right now, and this time of year is almost as famous as the spring for killer tornadoes.

[Ralph's Weather]

Down below freezing here and down as low as 27 in pockets around here.

[weatherdude1108]

We have frost this morning!

[Ralph's Weather]

29 at the house this morning, as low as 25 in spots around here.

[srainhoutx]

Moderate frost across NW Harris County this morning, even some patches of frost on the ground in open areas.

The GFS solutions are raising an eyebrow. Stepping down...

[TexasF6]

Frost on my truck this morning!!! Cold feels sooooooo sooooooo gooooood!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want snow!!!!!! Fix it Porta!!!!!!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Frost on my truck this morning!!! Cold feels sooooooo sooooooo gooooood!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want snow!!!!!! Fix it Porta!!!!!!!!!!!

Working on it! We've got Ntxw talking blocking patterns and srainhoutx talking "stepping down." The big guns for Texas winter weather are out.

I do agree that the end of this month into December looks quite intriguing.

[Darvince]

oh my god