Texas Winter 2016-2017

[orangeblood]

Regarding October 2016 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover - It appears there were only 2 years over the past 50 that ranked higher and have to go all the way back to Oct 1976 to find anything higher. This is a drastic turn around from earlier in 2016. A very promising sign for those winter weather lovers!!!

Northern Hemisphere
2016 1981-2010 Normal Period of Record from 11-1966
Month Area Mean Departure Rank Maximum (Year) Minimum (Year)
10 22,955 17,544 5,410 3/49 25,724 (1976) 12,781 (1988)
9 5,728 5,235 493 18/48 7,762 (1972) 3,838 (1990)
8 2,626 2,797 -171 29/48 5,308 (1967) 2,089 (1968)
7 2,554 3,665 -1,112 42/47 8,210 (1967) 2,325 (2012)
6 5,580 9,418 -3,838 47/49 14,972 (1978) 4,922 (2012)
5 16,343 19,019 -2,676 47/50 23,093 (1974) 15,377 (2010)
4 27,914 30,215 -2,301 50/50 34,606 (1979) 27,914 (2016)
3 37,165 40,130 -2,965 49/50 44,282 (1985) 37,122 (1990)
2 43,509 45,594 -2,085 48/50 51,320 (1978) 42,667 (1995)
1 48,800 46,866 1,934 9/50 50,275 (2008) 41,890 (1981)

[Ralph's Weather]

Regarding October 2016 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover - It appears there were only 2 years over the past 50 that ranked higher and have to go all the way back to Oct 1976 to find anything higher. This is a drastic turn around from earlier in 2016. A very promising sign for those winter weather lovers!!!

With persistent Arctic blocking and this snowcover we should see some good cold buildup if the jet ever slackens.

[Ralph's Weather]

Northern Hemisphere
2016 1981-2010 Normal Period of Record from 11-1966
Month Area Mean Departure Rank Maximum (Year) Minimum (Year)
10 22,955 17,544 5,410 3/49 25,724 (1976) 12,781 (1988)
9 5,728 5,235 493 18/48 7,762 (1972) 3,838 (1990)
8 2,626 2,797 -171 29/48 5,308 (1967) 2,089 (1968)
7 2,554 3,665 -1,112 42/47 8,210 (1967) 2,325 (2012)
6 5,580 9,418 -3,838 47/49 14,972 (1978) 4,922 (2012)
5 16,343 19,019 -2,676 47/50 23,093 (1974) 15,377 (2010)
4 27,914 30,215 -2,301 50/50 34,606 (1979) 27,914 (2016)
3 37,165 40,130 -2,965 49/50 44,282 (1985) 37,122 (1990)
2 43,509 45,594 -2,085 48/50 51,320 (1978) 42,667 (1995)
1 48,800 46,866 1,934 9/50 50,275 (2008) 41,890 (1981)

Added % departure. We have seen a rapid increase over the last few months.

Month %
10 24%
9 9%
8 -7%
7 -44%
6 -69%
5 -16%
4 -8%
3 -8%
2 -5%
1 4%

[Ptarmigan]

Regarding October 2016 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover - It appears there were only 2 years over the past 50 that ranked higher and have to go all the way back to Oct 1976 to find anything higher. This is a drastic turn around from earlier in 2016. A very promising sign for those winter weather lovers!!!

Northern Hemisphere
2016 1981-2010 Normal Period of Record from 11-1966
Month Area Mean Departure Rank Maximum (Year) Minimum (Year)
10 22,955 17,544 5,410 3/49 25,724 (1976) 12,781 (1988)
9 5,728 5,235 493 18/48 7,762 (1972) 3,838 (1990)
8 2,626 2,797 -171 29/48 5,308 (1967) 2,089 (1968)
7 2,554 3,665 -1,112 42/47 8,210 (1967) 2,325 (2012)
6 5,580 9,418 -3,838 47/49 14,972 (1978) 4,922 (2012)
5 16,343 19,019 -2,676 47/50 23,093 (1974) 15,377 (2010)
4 27,914 30,215 -2,301 50/50 34,606 (1979) 27,914 (2016)
3 37,165 40,130 -2,965 49/50 44,282 (1985) 37,122 (1990)
2 43,509 45,594 -2,085 48/50 51,320 (1978) 42,667 (1995)
1 48,800 46,866 1,934 9/50 50,275 (2008) 41,890 (1981)

Fall 1976 is the coolest Fall for America. The Winter of 1976-1977 was a cold one.

[vbhoutex]

Regarding October 2016 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover - It appears there were only 2 years over the past 50 that ranked higher and have to go all the way back to Oct 1976 to find anything higher. This is a drastic turn around from earlier in 2016. A very promising sign for those winter weather lovers!!!

Northern Hemisphere
2016 1981-2010 Normal Period of Record from 11-1966
Month Area Mean Departure Rank Maximum (Year) Minimum (Year)
10 22,955 17,544 5,410 3/49 25,724 (1976) 12,781 (1988)
9 5,728 5,235 493 18/48 7,762 (1972) 3,838 (1990)
8 2,626 2,797 -171 29/48 5,308 (1967) 2,089 (1968)
7 2,554 3,665 -1,112 42/47 8,210 (1967) 2,325 (2012)
6 5,580 9,418 -3,838 47/49 14,972 (1978) 4,922 (2012)
5 16,343 19,019 -2,676 47/50 23,093 (1974) 15,377 (2010)
4 27,914 30,215 -2,301 50/50 34,606 (1979) 27,914 (2016)
3 37,165 40,130 -2,965 49/50 44,282 (1985) 37,122 (1990)
2 43,509 45,594 -2,085 48/50 51,320 (1978) 42,667 (1995)
1 48,800 46,866 1,934 9/50 50,275 (2008) 41,890 (1981)

Fall 1976 is the coolest Fall for America. The Winter of 1976-1977 was a cold one.

As was 1972-73 Winter. We had three snows in Houston that Winter!

[Ptarmigan]

Fall 1976 is the coolest Fall for America. The Winter of 1976-1977 was a cold one.

As was 1972-73 Winter. We had three snows in Houston that Winter!

1972-1973 was pretty cold as well. Both were El Nino winters. 1972-1973 had a strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino, while 1976-1977 was a weak Eastern Equatorial El Nino.

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2010/0 ... ki-events/

The previous winters were La Nina. I notice when the previous winter is La Nina, the following winter is El Nino, it gets very cold.

[CaptinCrunch]

November continues to be overly warm thru the 8th. DFW is 8.9 degrees above the monthly average, and 10 degrees above the average daily high. Only good thing is we are over half way to our average monthly rain fall with 1.47" at the airport.

http://www.weather.gov/fwd/displayprod?dfwnov16

[CaptinCrunch]

13 days of November in the books now, and we haven't had a single day with a average temperature below normal. The monthly mean is 7.2 above average, but hopefully this will all turn around finally by Friday as a decent cold front is expected to push in over night Thursday bringing a chance of rain and possibly our first (low 40's, upper 30's) temp of the season. But before that can happen we will see temps climb into the 80's Wednesday and Thursday out ahead of the coming cold front. Let's hope this turn around in the temperatures last through the Thanksgiving holiday, it sure would be nice.



Friday - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night - Mostly clear, with a low around 42.
Saturday - Sunny, with a high near 62.
Saturday Night - Clear, with a low around 41.
Sunday - Sunny, with a high near 61.

[Portastorm]

I'll just leave this little tidbit here ...

[CaptinCrunch]

Hopefully that cooling will be a positive thing for Winter. Night before last on our local NBC (channel 5) news affiliate, it was brought up that Fall of 2016 is on pace to be the warmest on record for the Nation.

Look at the difference in the snow pack since October 17th


November 14th


Not only are we still behind in Polar ice coverage, but we went from a decent positive in early snow pack across the Canada to a BIG FAT negative all the way down into the lower Rockies. If we don't start seeing a pattern change to snowier, we are going to be in for a crap fest of a winter.

[texas1836]

We might be behind in the Polar Ice coverage, but it appears to be catching up, closing in on the Bering Strait.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

[CaptinCrunch]

Let's hope this pans out, and if it does some of us living in the surrounding counties north and west of (Tarrant & Dallas County) could see a light freeze of 32 for a few hours. Remember the average first freeze for DFW is November 21st, my forecast first freeze for DFW is November 29th.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are indicating that December starts off with a ton of blocking over the Arctic and northern NHem. Depending on the NE Pac we could get very cold via a -EPO or have a stream of cold storms across the southern stream. Winter looks to come right on time (we hope that this stays true).

[orangeblood]

Models are indicating that December starts off with a ton of blocking over the Arctic and northern NHem. Depending on the NE Pac we could get very cold via a -EPO or have a stream of cold storms across the southern stream. Winter looks to come right on time (we hope that this stays true).

Analogs to Dec 2009 beginning to show up on Euro Weeklies...really cold/stormy December appears to be a real possibility!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are indicating that December starts off with a ton of blocking over the Arctic and northern NHem. Depending on the NE Pac we could get very cold via a -EPO or have a stream of cold storms across the southern stream. Winter looks to come right on time (we hope that this stays true).

Analogs to Dec 2009 beginning to show up on Euro Weeklies...really cold/stormy December appears to be a real possibility!!!

Yep, it is starting to look more Dec 2009 to me than Dec 1983 as the EPO does not appear to take a dive. Personally I prefer 25 and snow over flurries and 10 anyway. We could go from first frost on 11/20 to snow in a three week period.

[vbhoutex]

Models are indicating that December starts off with a ton of blocking over the Arctic and northern NHem. Depending on the NE Pac we could get very cold via a -EPO or have a stream of cold storms across the southern stream. Winter looks to come right on time (we hope that this stays true).

Please don't get me all excited and then drop me in the GOM!! Are you talking N. TX or all of us?

[Ntxw]

Models are indicating that December starts off with a ton of blocking over the Arctic and northern NHem. Depending on the NE Pac we could get very cold via a -EPO or have a stream of cold storms across the southern stream. Winter looks to come right on time (we hope that this stays true).

Please don't get me all excited and then drop me in the GOM!! Are you talking N. TX or all of us?

I think he means in a general sense. The upper pattern is starting to shift for a potential cold and stormy December. We may have to deal with severe weather and wintry weather for some by the end of this month.

[Ralph's Weather]

We are still looking good for a winter like start to December. Looks like maybe a Arctic shot right at the beginning of the month gets cold established and beyond that there are signs of storminess. The CFS continues to be bullish on a snowy December and the global ensembles have the look of a snowy pattern in early December.

[CaptinCrunch]

No official first freeze of the season for DFW metro, but the counties along the Red River and NW from Decatur to Wichita Falls did see a freeze Sunday morning. Chance of Severe weather south and east of DFW Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

[orangeblood]

Well here we go....a very active southern storm track upcoming over the next few weeks - first serious threat for winter weather in the 2016-17 season, middle of next week. GFS colder than both the Euro/CMC but all have the storm crossing the southern plains Wed/Thurs time frame