Texas Fall-2016

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#681 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:39 pm

@BigJoeBastardi: GEFS on board with colder than normal evolution as Trans Siberian Orchestra Weather pattern for Holidays on way 20-25, 26-30 2m and 500...
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#682 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:13 pm

Looks like my area could get its first freeze this weekend. Hoping so and it's about time.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#683 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:14 pm

Models at the beginning of the month had the right idea of a big storm mid month. Only instead of Houston it's in the Dakotas. Snow chase anyone? US snowcover will change drastically by early next week

This is where it is now

Image

Where it could be by next week

Image
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#684 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:48 pm

Looks like after Friday, we get colder, followed by a warm up and dry weather.

I'm guessing, based on a La Ninaesque pattern, there will be a parade of cool, dry frontal passages in perpetuity, with little to zero rain chances, just in time for Ashe Juniper (aka Mountain Cedar) trees to do their stuff and spread, like dust in the wind. :cheesy:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 142048
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Main highlight through Tuesday will center around the continuing
above normal temperatures and a weak boundary that will shift
through the region from the north. Some patchy ground fog will
also be possible in the coastal plains and portions of the Edwards
Plateau Tuesday morning.

Water vapor and visible satellite channels show a mid- and upper-level
positively tilted trough axis shifting south over Texas resulting
in high cirrus clouds as a result of the extra divergence aloft.
While there is limited moisture with this trough, the overall flow
pattern will usher in a slightly drier airmass from the north
overnight and into Tuesday. This weak boundary should be able to
push through the Hill Country and a good section of the I-35
corridor through early Tuesday morning. This will reduce clouds
and fog chances as both BUFR soundings and RH time-height plots
indicate negative moisture fluxes. Where the boundary does not
reach however, (Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and portions
of the coastal plains) ground fog development is likely. Will need
to monitor these areas if it can become dense but enough northerly
wind mixing should hopefully limit the full saturation as seen
this morning. Fog will dissipate quickly by 9-10am where it does
form.

Temperatures will rebound into the 70s and low 80s across much of
the region with drier air in place and H925 temps ranging from
19-22C from east to west.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Continued 8-12F degrees above normal temperatures are expected mid
to late week as readings will reach within 2-5F degrees of record
highs.
However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday
afternoon/evening and bring us down to below normal next weekend.
Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoo
n but
heavy or widespread rain causing any hazards is not expected at
this time.

H925 temps will increase a few degrees Wednesday and stay near
steady for Thursday as a mid-level ridge moves over the region.
These factors combined will push afternoon temperatures into the
upper 70s for the Hill Country and the low to even mid 80s for the
rest of the area. Some locations in the Rio Grande Plains could
reach into the upper 80s. These readings will be within 2-5F degrees
of record highs depending on respective climate site location.

A strong trough will shift across the central and southern plains
Thursday into Friday and will usher in a quick moving cold front
that has some Northern Plains origins. Frontal timing per GFS/EC
appears to be Friday afternoon as a strong north wind shift
occurs. Scattered rain/tstorms will be likely along the leading
edge of the front but coverage and intensity should remain low as
the best forcing will remain north and the weak instability.

Rain/tstroms will be best confined to areas along and east of the
U.S. 281 area with eastern areas favored more. Rain will end
quickly Friday night.

Next weekend will be much cooler as highs will only remain in the
mid to upper 60s. Lows will drop in to the upper 30s for Hill
County with 40s most other locations.
A freeze does not look
likely at this time. A slow warm-up and continued dry conditions
are expected into early next work week.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#685 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:16 pm

We should count our blessings that we are currently not dealing with the kind of drought southern Appalachia is under. Probably their equivalency of our 2011.

Courtesy of the Atlanta NWS/Nasa. Smoke, there is ground truth to folks that way smelling and breathing it. Horselatitudesfarm can probably give us insight now having been in both severe droughts.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#686 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:We should count our blessings that we are currently not dealing with the kind of drought southern Appalachia is under. Probably their equivalency of our 2011.

Courtesy of the Atlanta NWS/Nasa. Smoke, there is ground truth to folks that way smelling and breathing it. Horselatitudesfarm can probably give us insight now having been in both severe droughts.



Yes. Droughts have a tendency to follow me around no matter where I move. Firefighters here say this is the worst its been in either 40 years.....or ever, depending on who you talk to. The smoke is so thick you can't see the sun and at night the full moon reflects off the smoke and makes it look like daylight inside the house in the middle of the night. There will be a massive die-off of forest cover in several states. There are evacuations everywhere and schools are having to cancel because there are so many sick people due to the smoke. There are several understory species here that, when burnt, release toxic chemicals; 2 of which are poison ivy and rhododendron species. The forests here are not adapted to this kind of weather and we are undergoing a major climate dysfunction scenario where ecosystems are crashing and changing rapidly. This area is supposed to be a rainforest environment after all. So many of the trees have just shut down with all their leaves stuck dead on the branches and only time will tell next spring if they are still alive. I remember in Texas driving to Houston in 2011 down I-45 and seeing whole hillsides with dead evergreen canopy and remember parks in Houston where most of the trees died (cannot remember what parks they were). Ntxw, you are right about this being our 2011 here. I feel unfortunate that I have to go through this twice in a lifetime. I think this drought is worse because of how intense it is (no rain at all for months at a time). The slope on the graphs from D0 to D3 and D4 are the steepest I have ever seen.
Last edited by horselattitudesfarm on Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#687 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:38 pm

Yeah it's been pretty bad. We've been so shielded by the bouts of rain here we ignore the devastation that was/is occuring in the southeast. Atlanta experienced its second hottest summer (much like 2011 was neck and neck with 1980 here) on record to boot with the drought as many other areas of the southeast. Matthew may have grazed coastal Carolinas but it to some degree probably had a similar effect away from the coasts as Lee did for Texas. Of course as you mentioned it is a forest up that way, much more to burn than here and the slopes makes it much tougher to fight.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#688 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:33 pm

horselattitudesfarm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We should count our blessings that we are currently not dealing with the kind of drought southern Appalachia is under. Probably their equivalency of our 2011.

Courtesy of the Atlanta NWS/Nasa. Smoke, there is ground truth to folks that way smelling and breathing it. Horselatitudesfarm can probably give us insight now having been in both severe droughts.

Image

Yes. Droughts have a tendency to follow me around no matter where I move. Firefighters here say this is the worst its been in either 40 years.....or ever, depending on who you talk to. The smoke is so thick you can't see the sun and at night the full moon reflects off the smoke and makes it look like daylight inside the house in the middle of the night. There will be a massive die-off of forest cover in several states. There are evacuations everywhere and schools are having to cancel because there are so many sick people due to the smoke. There are several understory species here that, when burnt, release toxic chemicals; 2 of which are poison ivy and rhododendron species. The forests here are not adapted to this kind of weather and we are undergoing a major climate dysfunction scenario where ecosystems are crashing and changing rapidly. This area is supposed to be a rainforest environment after all. So many of the trees have just shut down with all their leaves stuck dead on the branches and only time will tell next spring if they are still alive. I remember in Texas driving to Houston in 2011 down I-45 and seeing whole hillsides with dead evergreen canopy and remember parks in Houston where most of the trees died (cannot remember what parks they were). Ntxw, you are right about this being our 2011 here. I feel unfortunate that I have to go through this twice in a lifetime. I think this drought is worse because of how intense it is (no rain at all for months at a time). The slope on the graphs from D0 to D3 and D4 are the steepest I have ever seen.


:eek: Man, I am so sorry horselattitudesfarm. That is heart breaking. :( I feel for you all, with the flood of memories I have of the 2011 fires around here, with the infamous Bastrop complex about an hour away from here. I remember smelling smoke daily. I pray you all get rain SOON.

James Spann is hinting at a pattern change for the area, with good rains. Anything helps! He is in Alabama. But not too far from you.

LONG RANGE: Still encouraged to see the European ensemble showing a relatively wet December, with potential for over 5 inches of rain…

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=107474
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#689 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:21 am

GFS and GEFS are showing a big Greenland/Hudson block to end the month with some Pacific blocking to boot. Are we finally seeing signs of a surface reflection of the stratosphere driven -AO manifest itself into the WHEM as it has over Asia?
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#690 Postby Golf7070 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:58 am

Ntxw wrote:GFS and GEFS are showing a big Greenland/Hudson block to end the month with some Pacific blocking to boot. Are we finally seeing signs of a surface reflection of the stratosphere driven -AO manifest itself into the WHEM as it has over Asia?


Ntxw, I would wait to get the euro on it before getting too excited imo. I'm hoping it happens so we can see some cold weather in our area
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#691 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:11 am

Ntxw wrote:GFS and GEFS are showing a big Greenland/Hudson block to end the month with some Pacific blocking to boot. Are we finally seeing signs of a surface reflection of the stratosphere driven -AO manifest itself into the WHEM as it has over Asia?

Do you know if that will be coupled with a -NAO? It seems like a big Greenland block would indicate that. If so, then maybe our weather pattern will change.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#692 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:19 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:
horselattitudesfarm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We should count our blessings that we are currently not dealing with the kind of drought southern Appalachia is under. Probably their equivalency of our 2011.

Courtesy of the Atlanta NWS/Nasa. Smoke, there is ground truth to folks that way smelling and breathing it. Horselatitudesfarm can probably give us insight now having been in both severe droughts.


Yes. Droughts have a tendency to follow me around no matter where I move. Firefighters here say this is the worst its been in either 40 years.....or ever, depending on who you talk to. The smoke is so thick you can't see the sun and at night the full moon reflects off the smoke and makes it look like daylight inside the house in the middle of the night. There will be a massive die-off of forest cover in several states. There are evacuations everywhere and schools are having to cancel because there are so many sick people due to the smoke. There are several understory species here that, when burnt, release toxic chemicals; 2 of which are poison ivy and rhododendron species. The forests here are not adapted to this kind of weather and we are undergoing a major climate dysfunction scenario where ecosystems are crashing and changing rapidly. This area is supposed to be a rainforest environment after all. So many of the trees have just shut down with all their leaves stuck dead on the branches and only time will tell next spring if they are still alive. I remember in Texas driving to Houston in 2011 down I-45 and seeing whole hillsides with dead evergreen canopy and remember parks in Houston where most of the trees died (cannot remember what parks they were). Ntxw, you are right about this being our 2011 here. I feel unfortunate that I have to go through this twice in a lifetime. I think this drought is worse because of how intense it is (no rain at all for months at a time). The slope on the graphs from D0 to D3 and D4 are the steepest I have ever seen.


:eek: Man, I am so sorry horselattitudesfarm. That is heart breaking. :( I feel for you all, with the flood of memories I have of the 2011 fires around here, with the infamous Bastrop complex about an hour away from here. I remember smelling smoke daily. I pray you all get rain SOON.

James Spann is hinting at a pattern change for the area, with good rains. Anything helps! He is in Alabama. But not too far from you.

LONG RANGE: Still encouraged to see the European ensemble showing a relatively wet December, with potential for over 5 inches of rain…

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=107474

Thanks Weatherdude. Yea, I watched Spann's videos on how the pattern might change and really like his commentary. I keep feeling like the models and forecasts keep 'moving the goalposts' so to speak or maybe a Lucy and Charlie Brown scenario where we keep thinking: 'The next trough and front will be the one where we finally get the moisture' type thing, and then as it gets 2 days away the rain vanishes in the forecast. This next system forecasted for next saturday is case and point. I mentioned it once before on here: When hurricanes curve to the east and you get stuck on the west side of a big one in its drying subsident wake, it is a very bad omen for oncoming drought at these lattitudes.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#693 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:03 pm

I was in Alabama during the 2007 drought(which is the benchmark in my lifetime anyway, I wasn't in Texas in 2011), and to me this seems worse in a lot of ways. I don't remember the fires being this bad back then. It doesn't help that this time of year is much more likely to have dry winds to spread the fires. The 2007 drought was much more crippling on the water supply and the crops.

In more local news... my forecast keeps getting colder for the weekend, maybe we can get a freeze outside the metro

Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 35.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#694 Postby TarrantWx » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:59 pm

A lot of ridging over Alaska to be expected this winter per the CFS. Not sure if that is good or bad news considering it's the CFS.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/798373653402570752


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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#695 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:57 pm

TarrantWx wrote:A lot of ridging over Alaska to be expected this winter per the CFS. Not sure if that is good or bad news considering it's the CFS.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/798373653402570752




that looks like Texas would just get glancing blows with the main cold to our east
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#696 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:00 pm

Brent wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:A lot of ridging over Alaska to be expected this winter per the CFS. Not sure if that is good or bad news considering it's the CFS.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/798373653402570752




that looks like Texas would just get glancing blows with the main cold to our east


"Cold Rain"...smh...the worst.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#697 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:04 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Brent wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:A lot of ridging over Alaska to be expected this winter per the CFS. Not sure if that is good or bad news considering it's the CFS.



that looks like Texas would just get glancing blows with the main cold to our east


"Cold Rain"...smh...the worst.


and dry NW flows...

I am so done with these 80s btw... they keep coming back!
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#698 Postby gboudx » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:08 pm

Brent wrote:
and dry NW flows...

I am so done with these 80s btw... they keep coming back!


I ruined Winter when I bought 1/4 cord of firewood this past weekend. Winter cancel. Sorry.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#699 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:16 pm

gboudx wrote:
Brent wrote:
and dry NW flows...

I am so done with these 80s btw... they keep coming back!


I ruined Winter when I bought 1/4 cord of firewood this past weekend. Winter cancel. Sorry.

At least you'll still have a 1/4 cord for next winter..
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#700 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:44 pm

gboudx wrote:
Brent wrote:
and dry NW flows...

I am so done with these 80s btw... they keep coming back!


I ruined Winter when I bought 1/4 cord of firewood this past weekend. Winter cancel. Sorry.


maybe one of these years winter will return. :lol:
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