#629 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:28 am
478
FXUS64 KHGX 071138
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.AVIATION...
Difficult forecast pertaining to chances for showers and for
ceilings. Current observations and satellite show the potential
for IFR to LIFR through about 16Z for most locations. KGLS at the
coast may see some VFR breaks during this period. During the late
morning most locations should improve to MVFR with the two
coastal sites (KLBX and KGLS) having better VFR chances. Most
models bring MVFR or lower conditions back by 03Z or so this
evening.
Regarding chances for showers, am expecting a break through the
morning with subsidence behind the line of showers and storms that
went through early this morning and were off the coast at 1130Z.
Most of the high resolution models keep rain chances out of the
picture for most of the day. However, there was a disturbance
evident in the water vapor over northern Mexico at 11Z and the
state was under the left-front quadrant of the upper level jet
stream. For this reason, think that chances for showers should
return during the afternoon and early evening.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
An MCS moved through SE TX last night and it looks like subsidence
will dominate in the wake of this system for at least the morning
hours and have trimmed PoPs back significantly. Global models
remain bullish with rain chances today while short term guidance
like the TT WRF, Hi-Res NMM and ARW all support drier conditions.
PW values remain around 1.60 inches and SE TX will remain in a
diffluent upper level wind pattern so it`s not unreasonable to
expect some shra/tsra later today. Water vapor imagery shows a
weak disturbance over Northern Mexico and this feature should
serve as a catalyst for more showers later today. Have split the
difference between the drier short term guidance and the wetter
global models. The 00z TT WRF from last night did a great job so
am worried it`s much drier solution will pan out today and current
PoPS fcst will be too high. Weak isentropic upglide will develop
Tuesday as a SW flow aloft overrides cooler NE sfc winds. Clouds
and some patchy light rain will be possible especially closer to
the coast and offshore.
The upglide weakens Wed/Thu as the upper low over W TX
retrogrades westward. Surface high pressure builds into the
central plains and slightly drier surface air will move into SE
TX. Should be plenty of cirrus streaming overhead embedded in the
jet. SE TX will lie in a subsident zone of the jet so forcing/lift
will be limited and rain chances should be slight to nil with the
higher chances over the Gulf. Temps mid week look to return to
normal levels for this time of year.
The upper low eventually shears out as it moves to the NE next
Saturday. The surface high also shifts east next weekend. Should
get a bit more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures next
weekend. 43
MARINE...
Winds are expected to diminish as the complex of storms pushes
offshore this morning. A coastal low may move up the offshore waters
later tonight and Tuesday and help keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters. The main threats from any
storms that do occur will be strong gusty winds.
The other items of concern for today is the tide levels. The strong
easterly winds from earlier has led to tide levels that may generate
brief flooding of roadways on the Bolivar Peninsula during and
shortly after the times of high tide. Because of this, a Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect until 9 AM today. Higher than normal
tides may again cause some minor flooding later tonight during the
times of high tide once again.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 63 73 60 70 / 50 30 30 20 20
Houston (IAH) 78 64 76 62 73 / 50 30 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 78 70 76 66 75 / 50 30 30 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Chambers...Galveston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters
from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...40
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