2016 WPAC Season
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Year of landfalls again...Scary how the Category 5's like to visit and make landfall.


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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
thanks for sharing images and information, this weather climate is truly fascinating.


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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Since 97W is no longer on ATCR, i'm going to post this here until it gets designated again.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file
EURO still robust on Meari. It also develops Ma-on in the Gulf of Tonkin.


http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file
EURO still robust on Meari. It also develops Ma-on in the Gulf of Tonkin.


Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Gulf of Tonkin? I think you mean Gulf of Thailand.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
1900hurricane wrote:Gulf of Tonkin? I think you mean Gulf of Thailand.


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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
12Z EURO and GFS has Meari weaker 975mb and 930mb peak as it bends back west.
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
NWS: Meari
Low confidence forecast today. Model agreement is fairly good as
is run-to-run consistency which would normally produce a higher
confidence forecast. However the trough we are expecting to come
through around Monday hasn`t started moving yet. The wind speeds
would also have to increase quite a bit over the next 48 hours.
All of this is possible, yet all the ifs are reducing our
confidence.
After the disturbance goes by, conditions will dry out and winds
and waves decrease. The main uncertainty here is timing, as the
disturbance cannot go by until it arrives, and it cannot arrive
until it starts moving. Stay tuned...
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
First day of November and the WPAC is very very active...Convection wise
...3 invest possibly linking to one huge system down the road.







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Re: 2016 WPAC Season

Active next 2 weeks ahead as new formations remain possible over the Northwest Pacific basin in similar areas to Week-1. Some potential exist for a SCS system as models develops a very robust West Pacific MJO combined with a moderate Kelvin Wave.



Kelvin Wave strengthening over the area.

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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Models still pretty robust in keeping the basin active until the last week of the month.
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Models particularly the GFS and EURO still robust in developing any system in the P.I sea.
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
We all thought Meari would slam the areas affected by Haiyan 3 years ago, that didn't happen.
False sense of security?
00Z GFS brings the next storm, Tokage, into the area. Still very far out though. Something to watch.

False sense of security?
00Z GFS brings the next storm, Tokage, into the area. Still very far out though. Something to watch.

Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Latest EURO also picking up on Tokage making landfall in the Central Philippines.




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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
These GFS runs are entertaining.
Latest GFS has Tokage further east of the P.I. now has it threatening the Marianas. Development starts in 252 hours.


Latest GFS has Tokage further east of the P.I. now has it threatening the Marianas. Development starts in 252 hours.

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