2016 WPAC Season

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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#441 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:02 am

Looks like one of these is the one the models explodes.

98W THREAD

97W THREAD
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#442 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:11 am

Year of landfalls again...Scary how the Category 5's like to visit and make landfall.

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TexasMoveIt
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#443 Postby TexasMoveIt » Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:36 am

thanks for sharing images and information, this weather climate is truly fascinating.
:flag:
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#444 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:50 pm

Since 97W is no longer on ATCR, i'm going to post this here until it gets designated again.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

EURO still robust on Meari. It also develops Ma-on in the Gulf of Tonkin.

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Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#445 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:54 pm

GFS a little lower, 923mb into Luzon then later into Vietnam.

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Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#446 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:56 pm

Gulf of Tonkin? I think you mean Gulf of Thailand.
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#447 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:02 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Gulf of Tonkin? I think you mean Gulf of Thailand.


:lol: Oh yes. I just woke up and getting ready for work. I'm still drowsy. :lol:
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#448 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 28, 2016 3:36 pm

12Z EURO and GFS has Meari weaker 975mb and 930mb peak as it bends back west.
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#449 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 28, 2016 3:37 pm

GFS seeing more tropical trouble behind Meari...
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#450 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 28, 2016 3:39 pm

NWS: Meari

Low confidence forecast today. Model agreement is fairly good as
is run-to-run consistency which would normally produce a higher
confidence forecast. However the trough we are expecting to come
through around Monday hasn`t started moving yet. The wind speeds
would also have to increase quite a bit over the next 48 hours.
All of this is possible, yet all the ifs are reducing our
confidence.

After the disturbance goes by, conditions will dry out and winds
and waves decrease. The main uncertainty here is timing, as the
disturbance cannot go by until it arrives, and it cannot arrive
until it starts moving. Stay tuned...
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#451 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:08 pm

INVEST 90W

Now an invest.
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#452 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:17 am

First day of November and the WPAC is very very active...Convection wise :lol: ...3 invest possibly linking to one huge system down the road.

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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#453 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:03 pm

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Active next 2 weeks ahead as new formations remain possible over the Northwest Pacific basin in similar areas to Week-1. Some potential exist for a SCS system as models develops a very robust West Pacific MJO combined with a moderate Kelvin Wave.

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Kelvin Wave strengthening over the area.

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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#454 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:07 am

Models still pretty robust in keeping the basin active until the last week of the month.
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#455 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:09 pm

Models particularly the GFS and EURO still robust in developing any system in the P.I sea.
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#456 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:56 pm

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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#457 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:55 am

We all thought Meari would slam the areas affected by Haiyan 3 years ago, that didn't happen.

False sense of security?

00Z GFS brings the next storm, Tokage, into the area. Still very far out though. Something to watch.

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Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#458 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:43 pm

Latest EURO also picking up on Tokage making landfall in the Central Philippines.

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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#459 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:28 pm

These GFS runs are entertaining. :lol:

Latest GFS has Tokage further east of the P.I. now has it threatening the Marianas. Development starts in 252 hours.

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euro6208

Re: 2016 WPAC Season

#460 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:34 pm

INVEST 96W

Another invest tagged.
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