2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Yikes!

Latest 00Z develops Haima into an extremely powerful typhoon. 918 mb at landfall for Luzon!

[euro6208]

INVEST 94W

Now an invest.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/786606427393564672

[1900hurricane]

At the moment, I'm not seeing any signs of additional systems waiting in the wings after Sarika and Haima. La Nina style equatorial trades may stifle the monsoon trough in the medium range.

[euro6208]

Looks like the rest of October will be quiet as our top models keep the basin quiet.

[euro6208]

November troubles...

[euro6208]

GFS now has the Meari to be at very low latitude making landfall in Southern Vietnam.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

4th Category 5 of the Western Pacific season...

Super Typhoon Nepartak, July
Super Typhoon Meranti, September
Super Typhoon Chaba, October
Latest Super Typhoon Haima, October...

[euro6208]

Interesting meaning for the next name on the list...

Meari.

Means reflection of sound or echo.

Can it continue the roar of this season's monster typhoons?

[euro6208]

USER MESSAGE:
The manual Dvorak fixes issued by SAB for tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones in the Eastern and Southern Hemispheres, such as those found at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ are being considered for retirement. Specific basins affected are the West Pacific, North Indian, South Indian, South Pacific, South Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. The ADT based on forecasts issued by RSMCs in the Eastern and Southern Hemisphere is also being considered for retirement. Specifically, ADT output found on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html under the headers for New Delhi, Tokyo, La Reunion, Australia and Nadi would no longer be produced. All other ADT output would continue to be available to users, including ADT output based on JTWC forecasts in the affected areas. Interested parties may address their comments and concerns regarding this proposed retirement to Michael.Turk@noaa.gov through November 18, 2016.

[1900hurricane]

We've had three super typhoons since the start of October (Chaba, Songda, and Haima), more than double than the two previous (Nepartak, Meranti). Not bad. Looks like a break is coming up though with subsidence overspreading the basin. Guidance is trying once again to amplify an upward pulse of Madden Julian in the Western Hemisphere. Coupled with a weak La-Nina type base state, it could mean a week or two of little to no tropical activity if it actually verifies this time around.

[euro6208]

18Z and 00Z GFS showing Meari somewhere east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS showing a more active period and is on and off for the system southeast of Guam. Again, pushes back the development timeframe and still very long way out.

[1900hurricane]

I'd maybe watch the monsoon trough on either side of the Philippines in 8-10 day range. The upcoming five days or so will be dominated by subsidence, which can be seen on analyses and model plots as statistically significant high 500 mb heights and MSLP. Ensemble means, particularly that of the EPS, do show this reversing somewhat in the medium range. Far from a guarantee, but something to watch down the road near the turn of the month.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a disturbance has consolidated on the monsoon trough below 10*N in the western South China Sea. I doubt it develops before moving west out of the basin, but there are some indications that it could give 99B some company in the Bay of Bengal.

[euro6208]

EURO for 2 out of 3 runs thus far showing the disturbance crossing the Central Philippines and intensifying it to Meari.

[euro6208]

GFS has Meari to the east of Japan at a high latitude.



Then Ma-on east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

00Z GFS drops the high latitude system but seems to be latching onto Meari around 180 hours, (CMC and NAVGEM also has Meari at around this date but stronger and further north and east), traveling west to the Marianas and intensifies it in the P.I sea.