WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

00z

[mrbagyo]

Ok, that's pretty enormous.

[euro6208]

Luzon got pretty lucky this went through a EWC...stalling it's strengthening...However, the maximum winds are now spread over a large area confirmed by that microwave above.

[euro6208]

25W HAIMA 161019 0600 16.7N 124.7E WPAC 135 925

Down to Cat 4...

[euro6208]

JMA: 900mb 115 knots 10 min gusting to 165 knots.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[dexterlabio]

I can't believe I'm seeing this strong gust of wind this far south. I am currently in north Manila area.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND /
ELONGATION OF THE CORE CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH LUZON, HOWEVER, MSI SHOWS A 20-NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. A 190629Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH THE INNER EYEWALL BEGINNING
TO ERODE, INDICATIVE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115
KNOTS TO 155 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND IS FORECAST
TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
STY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. STY 25W WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST DUE TO THE ERC AND THEN MORE RAPIDLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER WATER NEAR TAU
18. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
AGAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY WILL RE-CURVE OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA WHILE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ABOUT
TWO DAYS WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH BEFORE IT TRACKS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA NEAR
TAU 96. AS IT RE-EMERGES BACK OVER WATER, STY 25W WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. ADDITIONALLY, STY 25W
WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF THE STR. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BELOW 25 KNOTS AFTER TAU 96, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM
TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 120; HOWEVER,
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION AS A TROPICAL LOW AS THE
SYSTEM WILL GAIN FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

The most extreme weather in the world will be in Luzon in the next few hours. God bless the Philippines!.

[euro6208]

I just noticed something. It seems like our typhoons are out of this world. Looking through the SATCON satellite estimates, the 4 Cat 5's this year (Haven't checked the other years) seemed to peak higher than the operational warning. Haima in this case has values from 155 to 170 knots which I believe it may have peaked somewhere.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10190124
SATCON: MSLP = 903 hPa MSW = 162 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 156.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 142 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 220 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 915 hPa 143 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT190220
CIMSS AMSU: 898 hPa 168 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10190124
SSMIS: 925.4 hPa 133.9 knots Date: 10181642
CIRA AMSU: CRP hPa CRW knots Date: CRD



First Cat 5 Mattrew in the ATL in 9 years seems much more behaved and led SATCON and seems to be in line with the other estimates with recon available.



If we were to follow the same trend, then these SATCON isn't ridiculous after all. 150 to 190 knots typhoons are a regular.

I can't imagiine the level of excitement/anxiousnes if recon was availlable here with records getting broken within a few months of each other.

[mrbagyo]

Typhoon condition now here in Sta. ANA.
I just saw a lightning flash followed by a distant rumble. Whoa.
Power is still up so is the mobile signal

[mrbagyo]

Just after i posted my previous post.
Power suddenly went down. Its total darkness.

[euro6208]

Any good radars available in the Philippines?

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

Power back again. We have generator
Strongest wind is still 3 to 4 hours away.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Any good radars available in the Philippines?

http://meteopilipinas.gov.ph/map.php

[mrbagyo]

Mega Eye