ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

TXNT25 KNES 130006
TCSNTL

A. 15L (NICOLE)

B. 12/2345Z

C. 29.6N

D. 66.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY BLACK AND EMBEDDED IN LG WITH AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET= 5.5 AND PT= 6. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 130222
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 34 20161013
021330 2916N 06512W 6965 03112 9995 +099 +066 210071 072 /// /// 03
021400 2919N 06511W 6967 03109 9995 +097 +065 210072 072 /// /// 03
021430 2921N 06510W 6961 03115 9992 +099 +063 207073 074 /// /// 03
021500 2923N 06510W 6967 03106 9988 +103 +056 205075 076 /// /// 03
021530 2926N 06509W 6966 03108 9986 +104 +050 205075 076 /// /// 03
021600 2928N 06508W 6967 03105 9988 +101 +048 203075 075 /// /// 03
021630 2930N 06508W 6965 03105 9986 +101 +055 201074 075 /// /// 03
021700 2933N 06507W 6967 03104 9989 +093 +074 199076 078 /// /// 05
021730 2935N 06506W 6969 03100 9990 +095 +092 198078 079 /// /// 05
021800 2937N 06505W 6966 03104 9991 +096 //// 199077 078 067 008 05
021830 2940N 06505W 6965 03102 9992 +094 //// 199077 077 069 006 05
021900 2942N 06504W 6969 03099 9992 +091 //// 197075 076 067 006 05
021930 2944N 06503W 6960 03109 9994 +091 +091 192076 077 /// /// 03
022000 2947N 06503W 6967 03102 9994 +090 +090 191075 076 /// /// 03
022030 2949N 06502W 6966 03105 9995 +091 +078 189074 076 /// /// 03
022100 2951N 06501W 6966 03104 9998 +089 +071 184073 074 /// /// 03
022130 2954N 06500W 6963 03110 0001 +087 +077 180074 075 /// /// 03
022200 2956N 06500W 6967 03106 9999 +089 +082 177074 075 /// /// 03
022230 2958N 06459W 6964 03109 0009 +082 +080 175074 074 /// /// 03
022300 3000N 06459W 6961 03113 0008 +082 +076 173072 074 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 10:23pm EDT:

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 130232
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 35 20161013
022330 3002N 06500W 6963 03104 //// +080 //// 173070 071 /// /// 05
022400 3002N 06502W 6969 03092 9992 +085 +083 175070 071 /// /// 03
022430 3002N 06504W 6965 03091 9989 +089 +088 176071 074 /// /// 03
022500 3002N 06506W 6963 03088 9992 +090 //// 176074 077 /// /// 05
022530 3002N 06508W 6966 03081 9990 +090 +090 179073 074 /// /// 03
022600 3002N 06510W 6965 03079 9984 +092 +092 180073 073 /// /// 03
022630 3002N 06512W 6965 03071 9981 +096 +096 181074 075 /// /// 03
022700 3002N 06514W 6957 03076 9977 +100 +100 176075 078 /// /// 03
022730 3002N 06516W 6977 03053 9972 +097 +097 177073 074 /// /// 03
022800 3002N 06518W 6971 03057 9965 +095 +095 175072 073 /// /// 03
022830 3002N 06519W 6963 03061 9965 +093 +093 174075 077 /// /// 03
022900 3002N 06521W 6967 03053 9965 +090 +090 174079 079 /// /// 03
022930 3002N 06523W 6965 03048 9964 +088 +088 174080 081 /// /// 03
023000 3002N 06525W 6962 03049 9951 +095 +095 178080 081 /// /// 03
023030 3002N 06527W 6967 03033 9938 +101 +101 183080 085 /// /// 03
023100 3002N 06529W 6969 03030 9919 +102 +102 182078 079 /// /// 03
023130 3002N 06531W 6967 03027 9902 +104 +104 181077 078 /// /// 03
023200 3002N 06533W 6963 03025 9891 +104 +104 182080 083 /// /// 03
023230 3002N 06535W 6965 03018 9886 +103 +103 181083 084 /// /// 03
023300 3002N 06537W 6967 03008 9884 +102 +102 180087 088 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

I wouldn't doubt if they go with Cat 4 at the next advisory or at least high end Cat 3.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 130242
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 36 20161013
023330 3002N 06538W 6967 02999 9864 +104 +103 181088 089 /// /// 03
023400 3002N 06540W 6962 03001 9858 +103 +100 181087 089 /// /// 03
023430 3002N 06542W 6967 02984 9841 +108 +098 182089 090 /// /// 03
023500 3002N 06544W 6966 02977 9830 +110 +092 181092 094 /// /// 03
023530 3002N 06545W 6966 02969 9828 +102 +098 182095 096 086 005 00
023600 3002N 06547W 6967 02954 9815 +104 //// 183099 100 087 006 05
023630 3001N 06549W 6963 02946 9807 +098 +097 182099 101 090 008 00
023700 3001N 06550W 6969 02929 9784 +108 +099 185105 106 091 005 03
023730 3001N 06552W 6967 02913 9760 +109 +098 183110 113 093 006 00
023800 3002N 06554W 6960 02904 9750 +102 +100 180115 117 095 009 03
023830 3002N 06556W 6966 02875 9753 +101 +101 178118 119 101 024 03
023900 3003N 06558W 6969 02846 9713 +114 +114 180112 117 108 015 00
023930 3003N 06600W 6966 02823 9671 +117 +117 180111 114 110 008 00
024000 3004N 06602W 6971 02797 9620 +127 //// 179099 108 111 006 01
024030 3004N 06604W 6967 02779 9589 +132 +131 176089 096 108 008 03
024100 3004N 06606W 6942 02792 9560 +138 +121 173078 085 101 004 00
024130 3004N 06608W 6970 02736 9529 +151 +119 172061 071 096 006 00
024200 3004N 06610W 6969 02732 9504 +169 +105 163035 054 083 006 03
024230 3003N 06611W 6970 02726 9497 +178 +068 171023 028 062 004 03
024300 3003N 06613W 6962 02736 9504 +170 +062 177019 021 /// /// 03
$$
;

119 kt FL, 111 kt SFMR. Pressure 950mb.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't doubt if they go with Cat 4 at the next advisory or at least high end Cat 3.

I'd say the latest Recon pass supports 110 kt. A little too inconclusive for higher, but maybe we will get a dropsonde suggesting otherwise.

[Alyono]

I would also go with 110 kts on this advisory, but would forecast 115 kts at Bermuda

Would be significantly worse than Fabian

[Lifeless]

Almost 128mph from a recon reading



(Note: It could be a mistake so, have to see what they go with in the next advisory)

[bg1]

Wait, so what was up with the first pass (and now a second!) that showed an estimate 5 mb below the dropsonde?

[CrazyC83]

Wait, so what was up with the first pass (and now a second!) that showed an estimate 5 mb below the dropsonde?

They are often off especially at the 700mb level where extrapolation is more difficult. But I have no doubt it has fallen, probably to about 952 or so.

[NDG]

Based on 119 knots flight level winds at h70, I will go with 115 knots at the surface.

[NDG]

118 knots SFMR

024900 3004N 06637W 6971 02794 9657 +122 +122 000102 109 118 022 00

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 130252
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 37 20161013
024330 3003N 06615W 6962 02734 9498 +176 +054 178015 018 /// /// 03
024400 3002N 06617W 6967 02728 9503 +170 +057 172014 015 /// /// 03
024430 3002N 06619W 6967 02729 9507 +167 +062 179012 014 /// /// 03
024500 3002N 06622W 6963 02730 9502 +168 +068 194005 009 /// /// 03
024530 3003N 06623W 6967 02726 9497 +174 +064 268004 005 /// /// 03
024600 3003N 06625W 6970 02724 9501 +170 +071 334003 004 /// /// 03
024630 3004N 06627W 6966 02730 9497 +174 +085 013009 014 /// /// 03
024700 3004N 06629W 6971 02732 9502 +178 +095 015026 033 /// /// 03
024730 3004N 06631W 6970 02744 9519 +172 +096 007048 055 /// /// 03
024800 3004N 06633W 6951 02783 9550 +157 +101 000066 069 /// /// 03
024830 3004N 06635W 6975 02771 9574 +152 +118 000078 088 111 012 03
024900 3004N 06637W 6971 02794 9657 +122 +122 000102 109 118 022 00
024930 3004N 06639W 6973 02829 9713 +104 +104 357105 110 109 040 00
025000 3004N 06641W 6966 02859 9736 +099 +099 359097 101 095 035 00
025030 3004N 06642W 6967 02881 9751 +100 +100 003092 096 093 015 00
025100 3004N 06644W 6965 02902 9755 +105 +102 003088 091 091 007 00
025130 3004N 06646W 6969 02914 9756 +115 +108 002084 086 089 009 00
025200 3004N 06648W 6967 02932 9778 +112 +109 002077 081 089 008 00
025230 3004N 06650W 6967 02951 9816 +101 //// 003076 077 088 005 01
025300 3004N 06652W 6966 02963 9807 +117 +094 359072 074 086 005 00
$$
;

118 kt SFMR to the west of the center. Category 4?

[CrazyC83]

Has Bermuda EVER had a direct impact from a Category 4 hurricane?

[Lifeless]

Has Bermuda EVER had a direct impact from a Category 4 hurricane?

Based on a quick search, 1 came near. But none have ever landfalled as a Cat 4 (within recorded history of course)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Atla ... icane_Five

[1900hurricane]

I'm a little skeptical of the western eyewall SFMR spike, especially considering how well the data seemed to agree prior to this pass, but we'll see what the NHC makes of the data. We're till waiting on eye and eyewall drposondes too, so that may help sway me either way too.

[NDG]

Officially now a Cat 4

[abajan]

It's officially Cat 4.

[TheAustinMan]

Has Bermuda EVER had a direct impact from a Category 4 hurricane?

There was a 1939 hurricane that passed around 40 or so miles to the east as a Category 4, and another in 1948 that weakened to a Category 3 as it passed about 60 miles to the west.