ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#381 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:25 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130112
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 27 20161013
010330 3054N 06610W 6963 03104 0021 +087 +087 120056 060 061 009 00
010400 3054N 06612W 6963 03104 0019 +090 +090 115056 059 060 009 00
010430 3054N 06615W 6976 03088 0019 +091 +091 110058 060 062 021 03
010500 3054N 06617W 6963 03106 0022 +093 +093 099061 063 064 021 00
010530 3054N 06620W 6966 03102 0022 +094 +094 099058 062 062 016 03
010600 3054N 06622W 6962 03107 0023 +089 +089 100054 057 059 008 03
010630 3054N 06625W 6966 03102 0020 +092 +092 093055 056 058 009 03
010700 3053N 06628W 6969 03099 0017 +090 +090 094054 055 057 008 03
010730 3053N 06630W 6961 03108 0019 +091 +091 094058 059 061 011 03
010800 3053N 06633W 6974 03090 0025 +087 +087 094057 059 061 011 03
010830 3053N 06635W 6962 03101 0023 +085 +085 095060 063 061 017 00
010900 3053N 06638W 6969 03095 0022 +087 +087 090063 064 057 020 00
010930 3053N 06641W 6966 03101 0024 +089 +089 085064 065 059 019 00
011000 3052N 06643W 6965 03101 0023 +089 +089 086066 067 061 013 03
011030 3052N 06646W 6968 03098 0024 +090 +090 082066 067 060 015 00
011100 3052N 06649W 6965 03103 0027 +088 +088 083067 069 061 007 00
011130 3052N 06651W 6963 03104 0027 +087 +087 082062 065 059 007 00
011200 3052N 06654W 6967 03101 0025 +089 +089 072062 063 058 009 00
011230 3052N 06657W 6962 03104 0028 +090 +090 061068 069 058 013 00
011300 3051N 06659W 6970 03099 0031 +086 //// 060067 070 064 008 05
$$
;

Some data is delayed. Need to use the archive as there are two flights concurrently.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#382 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:30 pm

abajan wrote:
hurricanehunter69 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Congratulations to whoever it was (I can't remember specifically) that called this as a future major hurricane several days before it even formed.

... Too bad for Bermuda....It's looking like a direct impact for them. ...

I still have a hunch the eye is going to pass just to the southeast of the island, putting them on the weaker side of the circulation. Of course, if it's a major hurricane when it passes (and all indications are that it will be), the impact would still be severe, just not as bad as if it were to pass to the northwest. However you slice it, the situation really doesn't look good at all.

It'll be close, but as you said, either way will be severe.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#383 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:36 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130122
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 28 20161013
011330 3051N 06702W 6970 03104 0028 +089 +089 062065 066 057 009 03
011400 3051N 06705W 6955 03123 0035 +088 +088 063060 066 060 010 03
011430 3051N 06707W 6964 03113 0039 +088 +088 063058 061 058 010 03
011500 3051N 06710W 6972 03109 0048 +087 +087 060050 056 057 010 00
011530 3051N 06712W 6963 03118 0061 +078 +078 042047 049 056 016 00
011600 3050N 06714W 6963 03119 0066 +069 +069 033048 048 058 009 00
011630 3050N 06717W 6964 03121 0034 +075 +074 033047 048 058 006 00
011700 3050N 06719W 6966 03119 0040 +073 //// 032048 050 058 006 01
011730 3050N 06721W 6963 03124 0022 +084 +078 031051 053 058 002 00
011800 3050N 06724W 6966 03124 0014 +094 +079 026054 054 059 004 00
011830 3050N 06726W 6962 03130 0020 +089 +072 027053 054 059 007 00
011900 3050N 06728W 6966 03125 0032 +081 +071 026051 053 059 007 00
011930 3049N 06730W 6965 03127 0026 +087 +069 024049 050 062 007 00
012000 3049N 06733W 6968 03124 0016 +095 +067 027050 051 059 006 03
012030 3048N 06735W 6960 03135 0015 +095 +068 027048 050 /// /// 03
012100 3046N 06734W 6967 03124 0016 +095 +068 028046 047 /// /// 03
012130 3045N 06732W 6970 03118 0023 +088 +067 025047 048 058 009 00
012200 3044N 06731W 6961 03127 0026 +083 +068 024049 051 060 007 00
012230 3043N 06729W 6966 03119 0016 +088 +072 023050 051 062 005 00
012300 3041N 06728W 6967 03116 0018 +085 +072 020051 052 062 005 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#384 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:36 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130132
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 29 20161013
012330 3040N 06726W 6964 03118 0018 +083 +069 019049 051 058 007 03
012400 3039N 06724W 6967 03110 0049 +068 +068 018048 049 /// /// 03
012430 3037N 06723W 6967 03109 0055 +072 +072 030050 057 061 015 00
012500 3036N 06721W 6973 03102 0041 +084 //// 048053 058 059 011 01
012530 3035N 06720W 6963 03104 0021 +082 //// 051048 052 057 005 01
012600 3034N 06719W 6967 03097 0011 +081 //// 050050 053 057 004 05
012630 3033N 06717W 6966 03096 9994 +085 //// 052052 052 059 003 01
012700 3031N 06716W 6962 03094 9975 +092 +089 048052 053 062 004 03
012730 3030N 06714W 6967 03081 9982 +090 //// 044055 056 061 004 05
012800 3029N 06713W 6963 03082 9957 +096 +093 044054 055 061 004 00
012830 3028N 06712W 6966 03073 9943 +103 +088 039054 055 064 003 00
012900 3026N 06710W 6965 03069 9944 +099 +080 037052 053 064 005 00
012930 3025N 06709W 6968 03059 9946 +095 +081 037050 052 064 006 03
013000 3024N 06707W 6969 03054 9974 +085 +085 038054 056 065 008 00
013030 3023N 06706W 6963 03058 9966 +090 +090 042057 060 065 011 00
013100 3021N 06704W 6964 03051 9951 +099 +099 052061 064 064 012 00
013130 3020N 06703W 6969 03038 9943 +100 +100 051058 063 066 012 00
013200 3019N 06702W 6958 03046 9934 +098 //// 048058 060 069 008 01
013230 3018N 06700W 6970 03024 9910 +103 //// 050064 067 068 007 01
013300 3017N 06659W 6967 03023 9916 +098 +098 046058 061 070 014 00
$$
;
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Re: NICOLE: Local observations , Web Cams , Local statements: Bermuda

#385 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:37 pm

Posted the Bermuda radar at first post.Bermuda looks very tiny when you see what is moving to them.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#386 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:47 pm

Definitely strengthening. Note how the eye becomes less ragged with time:

Image

Wouldn't surprise me if it's a Cat 4 at 11 PM.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#387 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:52 pm

Through 9:43pm EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#388 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:52 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130142
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 30 20161013
013330 3016N 06657W 6958 03025 9912 +102 +102 046062 070 073 020 00
013400 3014N 06656W 6967 03002 9904 +099 +099 045059 061 075 015 00
013430 3013N 06655W 6966 02999 9885 +099 +099 047062 062 072 007 00
013500 3012N 06653W 6965 02992 9856 +102 //// 045063 064 074 007 01
013530 3011N 06652W 6969 02982 9844 +104 +099 044067 069 075 008 00
013600 3010N 06651W 6967 02973 9836 +102 +100 043070 071 076 007 00
013630 3008N 06649W 6968 02960 9831 +102 +101 043074 075 075 009 00
013700 3007N 06648W 6967 02951 9841 +098 +098 041075 076 077 014 00
013730 3006N 06646W 6960 02947 9817 +099 +099 037078 080 077 013 00
013800 3005N 06645W 6970 02920 9789 +099 +098 033081 082 077 009 00
013830 3003N 06643W 6967 02907 9757 +106 +103 030085 086 077 014 00
013900 3002N 06642W 6965 02885 9743 +103 +102 026091 093 079 017 00
013930 3001N 06640W 6963 02862 9732 +100 +100 024095 098 087 031 00
014000 2959N 06639W 6973 02818 9680 +118 +118 020088 093 098 046 00
014030 2958N 06637W 6982 02777 9625 +127 +127 014076 090 101 029 00
014100 2957N 06635W 6973 02767 9562 +153 +119 017047 068 099 006 03
014130 2956N 06634W 6970 02760 9541 +165 +083 021032 038 073 003 03
014200 2955N 06632W 6965 02756 9535 +164 +077 022023 030 058 002 03
014230 2955N 06630W 6967 02750 9529 +167 +072 025018 020 054 002 03
014300 2954N 06628W 6967 02746 9519 +173 +062 043013 016 055 002 03
$$
;

98 kt FL, 101 kt SFMR. Pressure still falling.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#389 Postby bg1 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:57 pm

abajan wrote:Definitely strengthening. Note how the eye becomes less ragged with time:

Image

Wouldn't surprise me if it's a Cat 4 at 11 PM.


Looks very impressive in that last frame. Reminds me of Epsilon and another storm from not too long ago... was it Lowell from the CPAC?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#390 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:59 pm

Through 9:53pm EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#391 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:08 pm

still 100-105 kts based upon recon

However, this is a direct hit on Bermuda. I actually think it goes just NW of the island
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#392 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:09 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130152
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 31 20161013
014330 2953N 06626W 6966 02740 9511 +175 +061 036008 011 054 003 03
014400 2951N 06625W 6962 02740 9511 +169 +064 010003 005 /// /// 03
014430 2950N 06623W 6969 02734 9510 +169 +074 228005 009 054 002 03
014500 2950N 06621W 6959 02743 9503 +175 +072 233016 020 055 002 03
014530 2949N 06619W 6970 02736 9511 +171 +075 218027 032 /// /// 03
014600 2948N 06617W 6962 02746 9517 +165 +087 220040 043 054 002 03
014630 2947N 06616W 6965 02749 9525 +164 +097 224052 059 063 004 00
014700 2946N 06614W 6974 02751 9534 +165 +094 226068 071 064 004 03
014730 2944N 06613W 6962 02774 9545 +164 +104 224077 081 085 002 03
014800 2943N 06612W 6956 02798 9570 +159 +112 228092 098 090 003 00
014830 2942N 06611W 6963 02813 9610 +144 +106 233101 103 094 004 00
014900 2941N 06610W 6966 02836 9632 +151 +094 230109 113 094 003 00
014930 2939N 06608W 6962 02863 9663 +148 +067 226114 115 096 003 00
015000 2938N 06607W 6970 02875 9696 +136 +073 229113 114 094 003 00
015030 2937N 06606W 6967 02897 9725 +129 +080 228109 113 093 002 00
015100 2936N 06605W 6965 02919 9756 +118 +091 227106 107 089 003 00
015130 2935N 06603W 6965 02934 9780 +112 +081 224104 105 086 003 00
015200 2934N 06602W 6966 02947 9805 +102 +086 223102 103 086 003 00
015230 2933N 06601W 6967 02957 9821 +097 +087 223099 101 082 004 03
015300 2932N 06600W 6970 02962 9830 +100 +089 226096 098 080 004 03
$$
;

115 kt FL, 96 kt SFMR in SE quad. Pressure 950mb.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#393 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:09 pm

Pressure looks to be down to 950 now.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#394 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:10 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130202
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 32 20161013
015330 2930N 06558W 6962 02982 9843 +098 +092 228093 094 079 005 03
015400 2929N 06557W 6966 02985 9852 +100 +086 228093 093 075 004 03
015430 2928N 06556W 6963 02998 9860 +102 +084 228090 092 076 004 03
015500 2927N 06554W 6967 03000 9865 +105 +081 227087 089 075 005 03
015530 2926N 06553W 6963 03014 9875 +099 +086 226084 086 076 003 03
015600 2924N 06552W 6966 03018 9883 +105 +095 227079 082 /// /// 03
015630 2923N 06551W 6967 03024 9919 +095 //// 226079 080 /// /// 05
015700 2922N 06549W 6965 03032 9915 +096 //// 228080 080 073 008 05
015730 2921N 06548W 6967 03036 9924 +097 +097 230082 083 /// /// 03
015800 2920N 06546W 6960 03052 9926 +100 +100 229078 082 /// /// 03
015830 2918N 06545W 6975 03042 9947 +098 +098 225075 076 /// /// 03
015900 2917N 06544W 6959 03067 9946 +100 +100 226075 076 /// /// 03
015930 2916N 06543W 6969 03061 9941 +100 +100 225075 076 /// /// 03
020000 2915N 06541W 6963 03071 9948 +096 +094 227075 075 /// /// 03
020030 2914N 06540W 6967 03073 9958 +093 +091 227074 074 074 010 03
020100 2912N 06539W 6970 03076 9970 +090 +087 226072 073 074 009 03
020130 2911N 06537W 6963 03087 9957 +101 +090 227072 072 072 006 03
020200 2910N 06536W 6967 03084 9958 +104 +088 227070 072 /// /// 03
020230 2909N 06535W 6969 03088 9969 +100 +087 226068 070 /// /// 03
020300 2907N 06533W 6966 03095 9974 +098 +092 224070 072 068 008 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#395 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:11 pm

Eye dropsonde yields 955 mb still.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#396 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:13 pm

:eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#397 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:14 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 130208
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152016
A. 13/01:44:30Z
B. 29 deg 51 min N
066 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2693 m
D. 101 kt
E. 298 deg 14 nm
F. 024 deg 98 kt
G. 301 deg 18 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 10 C / 3056 m
J. 18 C / 3053 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0315A NICOLE OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 115 KT 127 / 16 NM 01:49:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 145 / 6 KT
;
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#398 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:15 pm

All things considered, 105 kt seems to be the best intensity estimate.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Recon

#399 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:16 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 130212
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 33 20161013
020330 2906N 06532W 6965 03100 9984 +094 +086 224071 071 /// /// 03
020400 2905N 06531W 6965 03105 9982 +101 +075 222071 072 /// /// 03
020430 2904N 06529W 6967 03104 9982 +104 +065 223071 072 069 006 03
020500 2903N 06528W 6963 03114 9983 +106 +062 224070 071 069 004 03
020530 2901N 06527W 6967 03110 9984 +107 +059 225069 070 065 005 03
020600 2900N 06526W 6963 03117 9985 +110 +050 228070 070 065 006 03
020630 2859N 06524W 6967 03115 9986 +113 +044 227071 071 065 006 03
020700 2858N 06523W 6963 03121 9999 +104 +051 228070 071 068 004 03
020730 2856N 06522W 6967 03120 0011 +094 +070 229069 070 067 005 03
020800 2855N 06520W 6958 03129 0004 +101 +051 230070 070 065 004 03
020830 2855N 06518W 6963 03127 0010 +100 +044 229070 070 /// /// 03
020900 2856N 06517W 6967 03122 0011 +100 +043 227066 069 /// /// 03
020930 2859N 06517W 6969 03115 0011 +096 +053 224066 066 061 007 03
021000 2901N 06516W 6970 03116 0003 +104 +046 225067 067 /// /// 03
021030 2903N 06516W 6962 03123 9999 +103 +053 222068 068 064 006 03
021100 2905N 06515W 6966 03117 9998 +103 +055 220069 069 065 005 03
021130 2907N 06515W 6964 03118 0000 +100 +063 219069 069 064 004 00
021200 2910N 06514W 6970 03110 9996 +102 +060 217069 070 067 005 03
021230 2912N 06513W 6962 03117 9998 +099 +060 213070 072 /// /// 03
021300 2914N 06513W 6969 03110 9998 +099 +062 212072 073 067 004 03
$$
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Hurricane - Discussion

#400 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:17 pm

Nicole is a classic, textbook looking tropical cyclone. Absloutely beautiful satellite presentation.

However, it is an extremely deadly storm and I pray all in Bermuda will get through her as safely as they can under these circumstances.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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