ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Breathtaking. So symmetric; I can't believe what this looked like a day or two ago compared to now.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...NICOLE TURNS NORTHWARD...
...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA
ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 66.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 66.9 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today.
A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast tonight, followed
by a northeast turn on Thursday with an additional increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane
Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours,
and Nicole could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches
Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has changed very little
during the past 6 to 12 hours. Nicole remains a very symmetric
hurricane with a distinct 30 nmi wide eye. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew one alpha pattern through the storm
this morning and recorded peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 91 kt,
SFMR winds of 79 kt, and a minimum pressure of 969 mb. Since the
aircraft only sampled a small portion of the circulation, the
initial intensity is set 85 kt, which is a blend of the aircraft
data and the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite estimates.
The aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since
yesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been
adjusted accordingly.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
strengthening while Nicole approaches Bermuda during the next day
or so. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler
sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening. Nicole
is forecast to interact with a frontal boundary in about 72 hours,
but it is not clear as to whether Nicole will complete its
transformation into an extratropical low by days 4 and 5. For now,
the NHC forecast maintains persistence with the previous advisories
and predicts Nicole to lose tropical characteristics by 96 h but
remain an intense storm system over the north Atlantic.

The aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane has
turned northward, and Nicole should stay on this heading with
some increase in forward speed today. The hurricane will become
embedded within the mid-latitude flow on Thursday, which should
steer Nicole northeastward with an additional increase in forward
speed. The NHC forecast is once again very close to the previous
advisory, and shows the core of Nicole passing near or over Bermuda
between 24 and 36 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone is
forecast to slow down and meander over the north Atlantic as it
interacts with a large cut-off low well to the southeast of Atlantic
Canada.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.4N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 31.5N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 33.7N 63.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 35.8N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 39.1N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 39.2N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/1200Z 39.2N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

[EquusStorm]

Incredible symmetry. If this does not become a major, I will be shocked. Could be pretty bad situation for Bermuda

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...LARGE EYE OF NICOLE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 66.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the large and distinct eye of Hurricane
Nicole was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 66.8 West.
Nicole is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northeast and an increase in forward speed is
expected tonight. A northeast turn with an additional increase in
forward speed is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and
Nicole could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches
Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[NotoSans]

Up to 95 knots at 18Z. May become a major soon.

AL, 15, 2016101218, , BEST, 0, 287N, 668W, 95, 962, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 120, 90, 120, 1010, 240, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NICOLE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow. Not good for Bermuda. When was the last time the Atlantic saw 2 major hurricane landfalls within the span of 1 week?

[Nate-Gillson]

Nicole looks almost annular.

[NDG]

I am always in shock every time Bermuda gets hit by a hurricane, such a small Island, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, the worst luck in the world.

[Kazmit]

I am always in shock every time Bermuda gets hit by a hurricane, such a small Island, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, the worst luck in the world.

I know, it's like threading a needle with your eyes closed. And this will be the third landfalling Bermuda hurricane in two years!

[Kazmit]

Winds up to 95 kts, while pressure is down to 962 mbars per the 5pm update.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS AS IT TAKES AIM ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 66.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 66.6 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected
tonight. A northeast turn with an additional increase in forward
speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of
Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight
or early Thursday, and Nicole is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

Nicole has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon.
The eye has warmed and become more distinct since this morning, and
the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled. As a
result, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to
T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB. Since earlier satellite estimates
were slightly higher than the intensity supported by this morning's
reconnaissance data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt,
which is slightly lower than current Dvorak estimates. Another Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Nicole this evening and should provide a better assessment of the
hurricane's intensity.

Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the path of the
hurricane through tonight could allow for some additional
strengthening, and Nicole is forecast to reach major hurricane
strength before it passes Bermuda. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause some weakening.
Strong westerly shear in a couple of days is expected to cause
Nicole to become post-tropical, but baroclinic forcing is expected
to keep the cyclone very strong through the entire forecast period.
There is a large amount of uncertainty in the global models as to
how much in the way of tropical characteristics Nicole will have
late in the period, and the status of the cyclone is of low
confidence at that time.

Nicole is moving just east of due north or 010/9 kt. The hurricane
will be moving into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, which will
cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward and then
northeastward during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring the
core of the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Thursday. In about 72
hours a shortwave trough is forecast to bypass the cyclone, which
should cause Nicole to slow down and meander over the North Atlantic
at days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 29.2N 66.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 30.5N 66.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 34.6N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 36.6N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 38.8N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 16/1800Z 38.8N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/1800Z 40.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

[terstorm1012]

Nicole looks gorgeous. It's a shame Bermuda is in its way.

[northjaxpro]

Nicole looks gorgeous. It's a shame Bermuda is in its way.

Yes, it is . Just bad luck again for Bermuda. Prayers for all on the island. I think Nicole will probably reach Category 3 major tropical cyclone status in the next 12-24 hours upon her nearest approach to the island.

[Macrocane]

Who would've thought 8 days ago that Nicole was going to be alive to this day, let alone nearing major hurricane strenght, she's a fighter, unfotunately on its way to Bermuda.

[Emmett_Brown]

Impressive looking storm! Perhaps the most classic looking storm of the season. Hopefully Nichole won't get any stronger. That fairly large wind field will make the passage of the hurricane longer and potentially more damaging. Funny, many people are impressed by smaller more tightly wound pin hole eye systems, but these big eyed larger canes cause damage over a larger area, and bigger problems of surge. I have seen people mention that Bermuda is prepared to handle these, so hopefully they will fair ok.

[northjaxpro]

Impressive looking storm! Perhaps the most classic looking storm of the season. Hopefully Nichole won't get any stronger. That fairly large wind field will make the passage of the hurricane longer and potentially more damaging. Funny, many people are impressed by smaller more tightly wound pin hole eye systems, but these big eyed larger canes cause damage over a larger area, and bigger problems of surge. I have seen people mention that Bermuda is prepared to handle these, so hopefully they will fair ok.

Yeah, Nicole has an impressive large eye. It also has grown in size the past 24-36 hours for sure. Bermuda has weathered major hurricanes before, with Fabian being the most recent major hurricane which impacted them directly in 2003. I pray they will be safe with Nicole.

[sikkar]

[Cunxi Huang]

12/2045Z GOES-13 RGB

[CrazyC83]

That looks like T6.0 to me based on my naked eye.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 122312
AF309 0315A NICOLE HDOB 15 20161012
230330 2911N 07247W 4655 06432 0335 -090 -362 207004 004 028 000 00
230400 2911N 07244W 4656 06430 0335 -090 -360 208004 004 028 000 00
230430 2910N 07241W 4656 06430 0335 -090 -361 223004 004 029 000 00
230500 2910N 07238W 4655 06432 0335 -090 -363 229004 004 029 000 00
230530 2909N 07235W 4655 06432 0336 -090 -365 223004 004 029 000 00
230600 2909N 07232W 4655 06431 0335 -090 -367 221004 004 031 001 00
230630 2908N 07229W 4655 06431 0335 -090 -365 222004 004 030 001 00
230700 2908N 07226W 4656 06431 0335 -089 -364 227004 004 029 000 00
230730 2907N 07223W 4655 06431 0334 -089 -365 235004 005 028 000 03
230800 2906N 07220W 4656 06426 0333 -085 -371 241004 005 029 001 03
230830 2906N 07217W 4656 06427 0332 -085 -372 244004 004 030 002 00
230900 2905N 07214W 4655 06429 0332 -085 -369 250004 005 030 000 00
230930 2905N 07211W 4655 06429 0332 -085 -370 256004 005 029 000 03
231000 2904N 07208W 4656 06427 0332 -085 -372 262003 004 030 000 00
231030 2904N 07205W 4656 06427 0332 -085 -373 267003 004 031 000 00
231100 2903N 07201W 4655 06429 0332 -085 -375 287003 004 030 000 00
231130 2903N 07158W 4655 06429 0332 -085 -375 298001 002 031 000 00
231200 2902N 07155W 4655 06429 0332 -085 -377 307002 002 031 000 00
231230 2901N 07152W 4656 06427 0332 -085 -378 334002 003 032 000 00
231300 2901N 07149W 4656 06426 0331 -084 -379 315003 003 032 000 00
$$
;

Plane is still a good distance from the storm.