93W THREAD
Philippine system up...
2016 WPAC Season
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
EURO has a long tracking disturbance emanating from south of Guam. Doesn't do much with it until it reaches 20N.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
These monsoon trough systems don't look like they're going to be fast movers.
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
For the past 2 runs, EURO has trended Haima stronger and coming uncomfortably close to land. It has been depicting something developing from this area for the past couple days so i'd take EURO over GFS.
978 east of Luzon.
958 as it clips Northern Luzon.
978 east of Luzon.
958 as it clips Northern Luzon.
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Past couple runs GFS dropped this Haima wannabe and it brings back the dateline system...Akoni/Meari.
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
The CPac name "Walaka" has yet to be used.
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
1900hurricane wrote:The CPac name "Walaka" has yet to be used.
There you go. I forgot how Walaka wasn't used yet.
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
That area south of Guam has been devoid of any cyclones so far this season. More than likely we will see something before the season ends.
Talk about untapped energy...
Talk about untapped energy...
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Kelvin Wave moving through the WPAC likely fueled Aere's, Songda, and future Sarika. It could fuel more storms.
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
18Z GFS brings back Haima. Northern Philippines and Taiwan all over again.
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
NAVGEM wants to do a fujiwhara with future Sarika with future Haima.
CMC with peak of 987mb. It has 5 more cyclones after Haima.
CMC with peak of 987mb. It has 5 more cyclones after Haima.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
The 00Z GFS has begun to exuberantly develop the second disturbance in the monsoon trough. It probably won't be too long before we see another invest in this area.
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Out of all the 9 official (JMA) typhoons this year, only Mindulle failed to become a major (Cat3+) system.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
Six of the eight have been have been since the start of September too (Namtheun, Meranti, Malakas, Megi, Chaba, Songda). Only Nepartak and Lionrock (and Mindulle) were before then.
Also, I guess I didn't realize JMA dropped Nida down.
Also, I guess I didn't realize JMA dropped Nida down.
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
1900hurricane wrote:Six of the eight have been have been since the start of September too (Namtheun, Meranti, Malakas, Megi, Chaba, Songda). Only Nepartak and Lionrock (and Mindulle) were before then.
Also, I guess I didn't realize JMA dropped Nida down.
Definitely a back-loaded season, especially given the latest model guidance with 93W and the next one.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
dexterlabio wrote:1900hurricane wrote:Six of the eight have been have been since the start of September too (Namtheun, Meranti, Malakas, Megi, Chaba, Songda). Only Nepartak and Lionrock (and Mindulle) were before then.
Also, I guess I didn't realize JMA dropped Nida down.
Definitely a back-loaded season, especially given the latest model guidance with 93W and the next one.
Yep, somewhat like 2013 in that respect. Although this season hasn't been puking out typhoons as fast as post-Usagi 2013 did, the parade of significant systems beginning with Meranti has certainly been noteworthy. James Reynolds was talking about 2013 as a possible analog a while back, and it may end up being a pretty decent one.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2016 WPAC Season
The mini CPac vort is back on the 00Z ECMWF.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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euro6208
Re: 2016 WPAC Season
1900hurricane wrote:The mini CPac vort is back on the 00Z ECMWF.
Also on the 00Z GFS. It briefly reaches TS status west of the dateline and weakens.
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