ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 111747
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152016
A. 11/17:32:10Z
B. 27 deg 14 min N
066 deg 14 min W
C. 850 mb 1277 m
D. 58 kt
E. 313 deg 19 nm
F. 043 deg 67 kt
G. 314 deg 25 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 18 C / 1528 m
J. 20 C / 1524 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 1234 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0115A NICOLE OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT 135 / 21 NM 17:39:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 120 / 2 KT
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 322 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Hammy]

Currently, to my untrained eye, it looks poised to intensify (possibly rapidly).

Quite likely--the models have been consistently showing for days that between now and when it reaches Bermuda there will be a marked increase in intensity.

[Kazmit]

Quite a small storm but I think the fierce eyewall will have a direct hit on Bermuda. The highest winds experienced on the island could top Gonzalo's.

[tolakram]

live loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[cycloneye]

AF303 0115A NICOLE HDOB 39 20161011
185900 2755N 06535W 8436 01495 0022 +171 +091 129053 054 037 001 00
185930 2754N 06536W 8430 01497 0015 +176 +089 130054 054 037 002 00
190000 2753N 06537W 8428 01498 0015 +173 +092 129055 055 037 004 00
190030 2751N 06539W 8428 01496 0012 +171 +099 128054 055 039 001 00
190100 2750N 06540W 8429 01492 0010 +170 +102 128056 057 041 001 00
190130 2749N 06541W 8432 01486 0009 +169 +107 129057 058 041 004 00
190200 2748N 06543W 8432 01482 0004 +168 +114 132056 058 043 006 00
190230 2747N 06544W 8430 01477 0006 +154 +122 130054 055 043 016 00
190300 2746N 06545W 8425 01480 9998 +157 +131 126054 054 044 016 00
190330 2744N 06547W 8430 01473 9993 +158 +142 128056 058 044 014 03
190400 2743N 06548W 8424 01474 9983 +163 +150 130059 061 043 006 00
190430 2742N 06549W 8429 01463 9975 +167 +154 132055 057 046 005 00
190500 2741N 06551W 8431 01457 9969 +170 +157 138060 061 046 006 00
190530 2740N 06552W 8429 01453 9961 +173 +156 135063 064 048 003 00
190600 2739N 06553W 8431 01446 9954 +174 +154 134065 066 048 004 00
190630 2738N 06554W 8427 01442 9952 +165 +149 132066 067 048 009 00
190700 2737N 06556W 8434 01428 9945 +165 +151 133069 069 049 010 03
190730 2735N 06557W 8435 01419 9933 +168 +151 131071 073 054 010 03
190800 2734N 06558W 8436 01410 9925 +162 +152 131072 074 055 036 00
190830 2733N 06559W 8426 01406 9914 +159 +157 132073 075 060 031 03
$$

[tropicwatch]

Kind of unusual for a minimal hurricane to have such a distinct eye feature.

[cycloneye]

[Kazmit]

Kind of unusual for a minimal hurricane to have such a distinct eye feature.

It sure doesn't look like a minimal hurricane now. Looks quite impressive... resembles more of a 90-95 kt storm here:

[hurricanes1234]

Kind of unusual for a minimal hurricane to have such a distinct eye feature.

Which makes me think it's stronger now. I'd probably go with 80 knots or more at the 5 pm advisory since it's really clearing out the eye now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

982 mbs.

[Alyono]

Kind of unusual for a minimal hurricane to have such a distinct eye feature.

Which makes me think it's stronger now. I'd probably go with 80 knots or more at the 5 pm advisory since it's really clearing out the eye now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

lets not hype this up like some mets do (not those who post here but a couple of known twitter mets). The aircraft data indicate that winds are 65 kts. It looks like a 90 kt hurricane.

This is normal. What it screams, however, is that confidence is very high this will intensify significantly before it reaches Bermuda

[NotoSans]

Recon only found 65-knot winds in the NE quad. Extrapolated pressure down to 981.6 mb.

[ThetaE]

On that link tolakram posted, there's something I noticed that I find sort-of interesting, but don't really know much about. Why does the convection fire around the eye in a counterclockwise direction, and on two opposite sides? I noticed a similar thing happening with Hermine too. Just curious about it, since I've never really noticed it until now.

[1900hurricane]

Second pass eye dropsonde was 980 mb/1 kt at the surface.

[Hurricaneman]

Second pass eye dropsonde was 980 mb/1 kt at the surface.

Pretty significant deepening is happening with Nicole and right now I can't rule out s major for Bermuda, can't even rule out a Fabian like impact but am leaning more towards a Gonzalo type impact

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:38pm EDT:

[Kazmit]

Second pass eye dropsonde was 980 mb/1 kt at the surface.

Pretty significant deepening is happening with Nicole and right now I can't rule out s major for Bermuda, can't even rule out a Fabian like impact but am leaning more towards a Gonzalo type impact

Fabian was also a much larger storm with a greater hurricane wind radius, and therefore impacted Bermuda with a longer period of high winds, and higher storm surge. Gonzalo-type impacts seem likely here, and the small size of Nicole is made up for by its slow forward motion (so Bermuda should still experience a fairly long period of TS/hurricane force winds. But a major cannot be ruled out.

[Alyono]

Fabian and Gonzalo brought nearly identical conditions to Bermuda

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:48pm EDT:



Mission over:

[EquusStorm]

If this were further north and east, having a large impressive eye but only being a category one wouldn't be all that out of place, but it's far enough SW that it's pretty impressive. Definitely enough time to get a back to back major out if it, should trends hold.