CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2003.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
...HURRICANE JUAN HEADING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...EXPECTED LANDFALL
STILL AS A HURRICANE...NEAR HALIFAX OR JUST WEST OF HALIFAX
LATER THIS EVENING......
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 N
AND LONGITUDE 64.3 W... ABOUT 350 NAUTICAL MILES OR 650 KM
SOUTH OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970
MB. JUAN IS MOVING APPROXIMATELY NORTH AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
JUAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY. JUAN IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 9.00 AM 38.7N 64.3W 970 90 167
SEP 28 9.00 PM 44.1N 64.1W 982 70 130
SEP 29 9.00 AM 50.6N 62.7W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 58.2N 61.6W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 63.8N 62.7W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 80 MM ARE FORECAST FOR
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA. PEI IS ALSO UNDER A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR NEW BRUNSWICK
EXCEPT EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR ALL MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR PEI THE MAGDELAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF NEW BRUNSWICK...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOWER THERE.
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OF UP TO 150 KM/H WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR
120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE STORM LANDFALL.
THE WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED OVER
CAPE BRETON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LES SUETES OVER THE WESTERN CAPE
BRETON HIGHLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND APART FROM WRECKHOUSE WINDS IN EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.
THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TOPPLING OF SOME TREES AND
LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE NEAR PHASING OF
JUAN WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HORTENSE
IN SEPTEMBER 1996 WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1.0+ METRE STORM SURGE AND
WE SHOULD EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH JUAN. PRESENTLY WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NEAR PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
IN HALIFAX AT 22:45 PM. ATHOUGH THIS IS THE LOWER HIGH TIDE OF THE
DAY... IT IS STILL ONLY 20 CM BELOW HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STORM SURGE IS 1.0+
METRES TO THE WEST OF JUAN AND 1.5+ METRES TO THE EAST OF ITS
PROJECTED LANDFALL.
THE NEAR CONCIDENCE OF THE STORM SURGE WITH THIS HIGH TIDE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE DOWNTOWN
WATERFRONT OF HALIFAX. WE SHALL KNOW BETTER THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
LATER TODAY...NEARER THE ARRIVAL TIME. THIS PROBLEM WILL BE
COMPOUNDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES IN THE
COASTAL ZONE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN ARE FROM THE MEDWAY HARBOUR TO ECUM SECUM SO A STORM
SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE SECTIONS OF THE COASTLINE.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS
ALONG THE TRACK OF JUAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE
POSTED FOR ADJACENT WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.
VERY LARGE WAVES AND POTENTIAL DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN COASTAL SECTIONS EAST OF THE STORM TRACK
PARTICULARLY FROM THE SAMBRO PENINSULA TO SHEET HARBOUR
LEADING TO SOME COASTAL DAMAGE AND EROSION.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANZIED WITH A LARGE EYE AND
CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE AT 28/09Z REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. JUAN
REMAINS A TIGHT SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD DIAMETER HAS INCREASED
ON RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES TO ABOUT 230 NM. ON THE 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS THE CLOSEST SHIP WAS 180 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. QUICKSCAT LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SWATH OF
60 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GALES OUT TO APPROXIMATELY
220 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HURRICANE HAS RECENTLY TURNED MORE
NORTHWARD.
B. PROGNOSTIC
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE AT THIS TIME FROM THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
JUAN IS PRESENTLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE. RECENTLY JUAN HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE. FURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS IT COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MAJOR CONTOUR
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST
MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL CLOSE TO HALIFAX LATE THIS EVENING AND WE ARE JUST
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS TRACK PREVIOUS TRACK. WE FEEL
THAT THE REGIONAL MODELS SUCH AS ETA, GEM AND ALSO THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL WHICH CARRY A CENTRE INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY OF FUNDY ARE
TOO FAR TO THE WEST...AND WITH THE RECENT TURN TO THE NORTH THIS
SOLUTION NOW SEEMS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. GEM HOWEVER DOES HAVE A
TRACK SOLUTION SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OURS...IF YOU FOLLOW THE STORM
CENTRE CLOSE TO THE 500 MB VORT MAX. WE CONCUR THEREFORE WITH THE
LASTEST NHC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN
THE VICINITY OF HALIFAX OR ST MARGARETS BAY LATE THIS EVENING.
...STILL A MARGINAL HURRICANE AT THAT TIME WITH MAX WINDS OF
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
JUAN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WARM WATER NEAR 26C BUT WILL MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AT
40N FROM LATE THIS MORNING ONWARDS. RELATIVELY WARM WATERS
LIE BETWEEN THE GULF STREAM AND THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST...RUNNING
ABOVE 18C. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN
BUT THE WEAKENING TREND MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT LEADING TO THE
FORECAST OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE SIMILAR TO HORTENSE IN 1996
AND BLANCHE IN 1975. JUAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
STORM IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE EARLY MONDAY.
C. MARINE WEATHER
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/12Z 220 150 60 120 100 75 50 60 30 30 30 30
29/00Z 210 150 60 120 100 75 50 60 30 30 30 30
29/12Z 250 250 100 150 120 90 30 60 00 00 00 00
30/00Z 250 200 80 120 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
30/12Z 300 300 120 150 120 120 00 00 00 00 00 00
END PARKES/CAMPBELL
Local Buoy info for Maritimes area
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/marin ... _10_e.html
La Have forecast
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/marin ... html?44142
Public Warnings For Canada
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/warni ... ngs_e.html
Local RADAR for area
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/radar ... tml?id=ERN
Novia Scotia local warnings
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/warnings/ns_e.html
Current Le Have buoy wx report
Temperature
22°C Pressure
101.3kPa Wave Height
4.5m Wave Period
12sec Sea Temp.
20°C Wind
E 23 knots
http://meteo.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/go ... 70_100.jpg
http://meteo.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/go ... 0x_100.jpg
Environment Canada Weather Forecast
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Marine Forecast issued for eastern shore.
Issued: 10.00 AM ADT Sunday 28 September 2003.
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Synopsis:
Hurricane Juan continues to move north toward Nova Scotia today.
This hurricane is expected to move across the southern marine areas early today and make landfall just west of Halifax this evening.
The storm will weaken as it crosses Nova Scotia and accelerate across the gulf of st. Lawrence overnight tonight to lie over Labrador on Monday.
Marine interests are advised that hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern shore Lahave Bank western half of eastern shore western half of Sable west Scotian Slope and western half of east Scotian Slope.
Storm warnings are in effect for Fundy eastern half of Lurcher eastern half of Browns Bank eastern half of Georges Bank eastern half of eastern shore eastern half of Sable eastern half of east Scotian Slope Fourchu Cabot strait Northumberland strait and Gulf-Magdalen.
Gale warnings are in effect for all remaining areas.
Higher than normal water levels are expected along the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia this evening due to the arrival of hurricane Juan just before high tide. The storm will also be accompanied tonight by very large waves in the coastal zone. Areas of particular concern are from the medway harbour to ecum secum with highest levels expected east of the storm track.
Hurricane information...
At 9.00 AM ADT...Hurricane Juan was located near latitude 38.7 North and longitude 64.3 west...About 350 nautical miles or 650 kilometres south of Halifax. Maximum sustained winds are estimated At 90 knots...167 km/h...And central pressure at 970 MB. Juan is Moving north 16 knots...30 km/h.
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Forecast:
Eastern half of eastern shore
Storm warning continued.
Winds southeast 20 to 25 knots increasing to southeast winds 25 to gales 35 near noon and to southeast gales 40 to 50 early this evening. Gales diminishing to southwest gales 35 to 40 near Midnight and to southwest winds 25 to 30 Monday morning. Fog banks.
Occasional showers or thundershowers changing to rain or thundershowers this afternoon ending near midnight. Visibility Poor in fog and fair in precipitation. Little temperature change.
Outlook for Tuesday...Strong southwesterlies.
Western half of eastern shore
Hurricane force wind warning continued.
Winds southeast 20 to 25 knots increasing to southeast winds 30 to gales 40 near noon and to southeast gales 45 to 55 early this evening. Gales increasing to easterly gales 55 to 65 this evening.
Gales diminishing to southwest gales 40 to 50 near midnight and to southwest winds 25 to 30 Monday morning. Fog banks. Occasional showers or thundershowers changing to rain or thundershowers this afternoon ending near midnight. Visibility poor in fog and fair in precipitation. Little temperature change.
Outlook for Tuesday...Strong southwesterlies.
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