2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

GFS continues with the active spell...

Has another Vietnam typhoon after crossing Luzon as a TS. 00Z had a 962 mb typhoon so it's weaker on latest run.



384 hours out. It has 2 typhoons...

[1900hurricane]

Guidance is picking up on Dateline shenanigans all of a sudden. The incipient disturbance is currently just on the EPac side.

[1900hurricane]

I'm a couple of days late, but welcome to Super Typhoon Season! In the post-recon era (1987 to 2015, excluding this year since it's not yet in the books) almost half of the total duration of category 5s have taken place in October and November (45.25 of 93.5 C5 Days). If we bump up to storms rated with a CI of 7.5 or higher (155+ kt), the number bumps up above 70% (10.75 of 15.25 CI 7.5 Days).

[dexterlabio]

I'm a couple of days late, but welcome to Super Typhoon Season! In the post-recon era (1987 to 2015, excluding this year since it's not yet in the books) almost half of the total duration of category 5s have taken place in October and November (45.25 of 93.5 C5 Days). If we bump up to storms rated with a CI of 7.5 or higher (155+ kt), the number bumps up above 70% (10.75 of 15.25 CI 7.5 Days).

Aside from Chaba, the global models are not seeing anything intense although the GFS is spinning up typhoons near the dateline. I wonder if we will get another Cat4-5 super typhoons before December.

[euro6208]

Incredible...

3rd Cat 5 of the season. CHABA!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=118353&p=2552623#p2552623

[1900hurricane]

I'm a couple of days late, but welcome to Super Typhoon Season! In the post-recon era (1987 to 2015, excluding this year since it's not yet in the books) almost half of the total duration of category 5s have taken place in October and November (45.25 of 93.5 C5 Days). If we bump up to storms rated with a CI of 7.5 or higher (155+ kt), the number bumps up above 70% (10.75 of 15.25 CI 7.5 Days).

Aside from Chaba, the global models are not seeing anything intense although the GFS is spinning up typhoons near the dateline. I wonder if we will get another Cat4-5 super typhoons before December.

I think the chances are pretty good we'll see at least one more super typhoon. It may not come from 99W or 94C, since the former will be moving into the South China Sea and the latter will likely be at a Kilo latitude and brushed up against a stout subtropical ridge axis, but even one of these two could surprise. Ever since guidance only picked up Meranti just a little before it developed, the globals have done a pretty poor job with storm intensity (generally too low), sometimes swinging back and forth between a decent system and one that barely develops run to run. Leaning on the globals for system intensity has not been a good strategy lately, and intensity forecasts have been quite tricky as a result.

In the extended range, there are some hints that the monsoon trough may wake up, but that's in the 8-10+ day range, so that's obviously subject to change.

[euro6208]

All but one of the global models showing a quiet period ahead.

GFS showing another recurving typhoon from it's birth south of Guam.

[dexterlabio]

Models are showing higher than normal pressure for most part of the WPAC in medium to long range. I suppose it is due to the expected MJO rebirth in the Western Hemisphere, putting the WPAC in the dry phase.

[euro6208]

The dry MJO will surely slow down TC development alright but that won't stop TC's entering from the CPAC. Here is Akoni, still very far out though.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance seems to be latching onto development southeast of Guam from the monsoon trough in about a week or so. Pretty decent signal considering the forecast range.

[mrbagyo]

makes a lot of sense.
I think it's time to watch for the lower latitude of WPAC. Some of the strongest storm dished out by the basin happened in the 2nd week of October onwards and most of them came from lower latitude. Climatology during this period also favors west runners so its very likely that we'll see one tapping the energy stored in the south Philippine Sea.

[euro6208]

00Z EURO more robust. Has 4 areas with possible development. One of them strengthens into a typhoon over the Philippines.

[euro6208]

The dry MJO will surely slow down TC development alright but that won't stop TC's entering from the CPAC. Here is Akoni, still very far out though.

Well POOF! No longer develops this as per last few runs.

[dexterlabio]

The dry MJO will surely slow down TC development alright but that won't stop TC's entering from the CPAC. Here is Akoni, still very far out though.

Well POOF! No longer develops this as per last few runs.

Hah I think you are jinxing the phantom storms in the model runs from coming to life.

[NotoSans]

FYI, I have made some spreadsheets for the JMA best track data. You can compare the best track with the operational analysis in the spreadsheets.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B44Ep ... zlzdkRkZUU

[1900hurricane]

The areas near 10*N, 135*E and 10*N, 163*E may be the next two areas to go up if guidance is to be believed.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM very robust on that Luzon system on many runs. Also develops two others, one near Guam.

[euro6208]

CMC agrees on the P.I system and an outbreak.

[euro6208]

EURO still robust on that P.I system. Makes landfall until another landfall in Vietnam.

[euro6208]

Latest GFS also brings the landfalling Luzon landfall with a big strike for Hainan. Also worth noting it still brings Akoni in from the Cpac. Less entertaining than the other models.