ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

washed out.

[hurricanes1234]

Cloud tops have certainly warmed in the past few hours.

[Hammy]

Cloud tops have certainly warmed in the past few hours.

Looks like Nicole sucked in some dry air temporarily as a result of the northerly winds and trough--convection all but collapsed earlier but appears to be building back a bit now.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TBH it looks like junk ATM.

[floridasun78]

it look pull more to south

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Diagnosis shear+dryair = anaemia

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016

Depp convection associated with Nicole has decreased since the last
advisory, with the primary convection now confined to an area south
of the center. It is unclear whether this is due to the normal
diurnal convective minimum, entrainment of dry air seen near the
center in water vapor imagery, or the result of cooling sea surface
temperatures under the stationary storm. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt, while the latest satellite
consensus estimate from CIMSS is 51 kt. Based on these data, the
initial intensity remains 55 kt.

Nicole is now drifting northward, and this motion should continue
for the next 12-24 hours as a blocking ridge of high pressure north
of the cyclone weakens. A deep-layer trough associated with former
Hurricane Matthew is forecast to pass north of Nicole, with a second
ridge passing north of the storm after 24 hours. This should cause
a northwestward turn, and the guidance during this stage of the
forecast has shifted left since the previous advisory. After 72
hours, a new trough moving eastward from the United States should
cause Nicole to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The new
forecast track is shifted to the left between 24-72 hours, but still
lies to the east of the various consensus models. After 72 hours,
the track lies a little north of the previous track.

A combination of the above mentioned dry air, possible cooler
waters, and continuing strong northerly shear should limit
intensification for the next 12 hours or so. After that, the shear
should gradually subside and allow Nicole to intensify if the
cyclone does not entrain too much low-level dry air brought
southward due to Matthew. The environment is most favorable at
about 72 hours, and the new intensity forecast calls for a slightly
increased peak intensity of 85 kt in best agreement with the SHIPS
model. After that time, the cyclone is expected to encounter the
mid-latitude westerlies with increased shear partly compensated for
by increased upper-level divergence. This environment should lead to
gradual weakening with extratropical transition beginning near 120
hours.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 24.4N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 25.1N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.6N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 28.5N 66.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 32.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 37.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[chaser1]

Wow, looking how anemic Nicole has been looking this evening, I wonder what kind of odds I'd get in Vegas for a bet that she eventually reaches "major status"? Could be a greater threat to Bermuda than anticipated.

[Kazmit]

Latest advisory shows a Gonzalo-esque situation, with a Cat 2 making landfall on Bermuda. This could be a historic storm for them.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016

Nicole's overall convective pattern has changed little since the
previous advisory, with most of the convection located in the
eastern semicircle. However, during the past hour or two, a small
burst of deep convection with tops to -80C has developed just east
of the exposed low-level circulation center, signaling that dry air
entrainment into the center of the cyclone has abated somewhat.
Satellite current intensity (CI) estimates from TAFB and SAB remain
55 kt, and a late-arriving ASCAT-A pass indicated 45-kt surface
winds in the western semicircle where no convection was present.
Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt.

Nicole is moving slowly northward and the initial motion estimate is
360/05 kt. The cyclone is expected to move slowly at around 5 kt for
the next 72 hours, beginning with a motion toward the north today,
followed by a turn to the north-northwest tonight, and a turn toward
the northwest on Tuesday. By 36-48 hours, a break in the ridge to
the north of Nicole is forecast to develop as a shortwave trough
moves off of the U.S. east coast and erodes the blocking ridge. This
should allow Nicole to move northward by 48 hours and turn toward
the north-northeast and northeast by 72 hours. By 96 hours and
beyond, the aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to capture
the cyclone and accelerate Nicole to the northeast over the north
Atlantic. The global models are now in excellent agreement on this
developing track scenario, but have unfortunately shifted farther
west and are now much closer to Bermuda. The new NHC track forecast
has been shifted westward as a result, but still lies east of the
consensus model TVCN and the GFS-ECMWF solutions, which bring
Nicole over or just west of Bermuda in about 84 hours.

The combination of northerly shear and some additional modest dry
air entrainment is expected to inhibit development today. However,
by Tuesday the vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF
models to decrease to less than 10 kt, and remain low until about 72
hours. The low shear conditions and developing upper-level outflow
pattern as depicted in the global and regional models, along with
Nicole's already robust low- to mid-level circulations, should allow
the cyclone to strengthen and regain hurricane status during that
time. By 96 hours and beyond, southwesterly shear ahead of the
shortwave trough is forecast to increase to 30-40 kt, which should
induce steady weakening. Extratropical transition is possible by 120
hours, but most of the intensity guidance maintains Nicole as a
tropical cyclone, which is reflected in the official forecast. The
new intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS intensity model,
which appears to have a good handle on the timing of the reduction
of the vertical shear and associated strengthening, and also remains
above the intensity consensus model IVCN.

The 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant
based on 31-33 kt winds recently reported by NOAA Buoy 41049.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 25.0N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.6N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 27.2N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 27.8N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 30.5N 66.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 38.5N 56.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2016 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 25:03:35 N Lon : 65:12:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.8mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.3 2.3





pass was earlier.

[cycloneye]

First mission is on Tuesday morning with plane departing at 9 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70             FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 11/1730Z                      A. 12/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0115A NICOLE            B. AFXXX 0215A NICOLE
       C. 11/1300Z                      C. 12/0700Z
       D. 27.4N 66.2W                   D. 28.5N 66.8W
       E. 11/1700Z TO 11/2030Z          E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT              F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 12/2330Z AND THEN
       TO BE DETERMINED.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern has lost organization since late yesterday.
A series of convective bursts over the last 24 hours faded away into
a shallow and shapeless cloud mass earlier this morning. Since
then, some deep convection has redeveloped over the low-level center
but there has been no apparent increase to its organization. A blend
of the Final-T and CI-number from the TAFB satellite classification
and UW-CIMSS ADT values are used to lower the initial intensity
estimate to 50 kt.

Nicole has been moving slowly northward or 360/05 as it moves
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its
northeast. While this general motion should continue today, a
shortwave trough trekking across Atlantic Canada is expected to
bypass Nicole during the next 24 hours, and allow a weak mid-level
ridge to build north and west of the cyclone between 24 and 48
hours. This synoptic pattern should result in a leftward bend of
the track through about 48 hours. After that time, global models
show Nicole turning northward and then northeastward with an
increase in forward speed once it reaches a faster-paced westerly
flow around 30N. Although the track guidance is in much better
agreement than it has been during the last few days, the theme from
yesterday of the ECMWF and its 0000 UTC ensemble members showing
Nicole with a greater westerly component from 24 to 72 hours
persists. In fact, a majority of the ECMWF ensembles members are
still, to varying degrees, left of the current forecast. The new
track forecast is again adjusted to left of the previous one, closer
to the ECMWF, and is west of the model consensus aids.

During the last 24 hours, a piece of vorticity that fractured from
a central Atlantic shortwave trough has been merging with Nicole.
The interaction of this feature with Nicole and a continuation of
strong northerly shear could explain the degraded satellite
appearance of Nicole since yesterday. Nonetheless, the shear
is still forecast to diminish during the next day or two, as the
cyclone traverses near-record warm SSTs, finds itself in a
reasonably moist environment and an increasingly diffluent flow
aloft. These factors suggest that a significant re-intensification
is still possible, as the global models continue to show. The only
caveat would be to what degree a drier and more stable air in the
wake of Post-Tropical Matthew would modify as it is at least
partially ingested by Nicole's circulation. SHIPS model output
shows the shear greatly increasing by 96 hours, which would likely
result in an end to the predicted intensification phase unless
baroclinic processes become dominant and result in just a little bit
more. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
is close to the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that
global models show Nicole becoming a large hurricane in about 3
days, with a wide distribution of strong winds over the central
Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 25.7N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 27.2N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.7N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 28.5N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.8N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 36.7N 59.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 41.2N 53.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[smithtim]

Wow, looking how anemic Nicole has been looking this evening, I wonder what kind of odds I'd get in Vegas for a bet that she eventually reaches "major status"? Could be a greater threat to Bermuda than anticipated.

Somebody just showed me one of the noaa wave models showing huge swells - size you'd expect from cat 3/4

[StormTracker]

I guess with big brother Matt upstaging her, and drawing more attention (elements) to himself, Nicole, which I personally thought wouldn't still be around at this point and time, survives to possibly become a major hurricane and threaten Bermuda? I thought for sure the shear would totally dismantle her structure and dissipate her sometime last week! Seems as though these 2nd half of the season storms want keep defying the odds!

[Kazmit]

Looking better than it did overnight but still a little disheveled.

[Kazmit]

If this projected path stays consistent, could a hurricane watch be issued for Bermuda tomorrow morning?

[floridasun78]

If this projected path stays consistent, could a hurricane watch be issued for Bermuda tomorrow morning?

likely soon by tue afternoon

[Kazmit]

If this projected path stays consistent, could a hurricane watch be issued for Bermuda tomorrow morning?

likely soon by tue afternoon

Hurricane watch in effect for Bermuda.
http://weather.bm/index.asp

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks almost dry remnants, will be some come back if this recovers.