From Jeff lindner - sorry can't reformat on Tapatalk but wanted to get this out. I feel for my old friends and neighbors in Savannah:
Near record storm surge event underway over NE FL and GA
Life threatening potentially historic storm surge for the GA and SC coasts tonight and Saturday
Matthew pounds the east coast of FL with 70-90mph winds and massive storm surge causing extensive damage.
Discussion:
The eye of major hurricane Matthew with sustained winds of 115mph is located roughly 45 ESE of Jacksonville Beach. St Augustin has been gusting to 76mph in the last hour and Jacksonville Intl Airport 64mph. Major storm surge flooding is in progress currently from St Augustine to Jacksonville. At St Augustine the seawall has been overtopped and sea water has flooded much of the city. At both Jacksonville and Daytona Beach the dunes were breached and waves and storm surge poured into the structures on the land side of the dunes. Significant storm surge flooding is in progress in the St John’s River in Downtown Jacksonville. The entire island of Anastasia has been covered with 2.5-3.0 feet of sea water. Several large sections of highway A1A at Flagler Beach have collapsed and wind damage to structures is significant in Daytona Beach where large sections of high rise buildings were torn off.
Matthew has turned 350 degree at 14 mph and this motion should continue for the next several hours with a turn toward the NNE and NE which will now bring the center to the SC coast just SW of Charleston, SC. The hurricane may weaken below major hurricane status late tonight or early on Saturday, but the large wind field and the extreme vulnerability of the GA and SC to storm surge will result in a significant if not historic event.
Impacts:
Life threatening storm surge in progress along the NE FL coast will spread northward into all of the GA and much of the SC coasts tonight and Saturday.
Potential for record storm surge values at St Simon Island, Tybee Island, and Savannah tonight.
Concern is growing that a large and devastating storm surge will impact Charleston, Folly Beach and Beaufort Saturday as the large center of Matthew nears of makes landfall over southwest SC. This will be a devastating storm surge event for the GA and SC coast with extensive damage likely to coastal structures.
Storm surge values above the ground tonight and Saturday will range from 6-9 ft from GA to SC including portions of Downtown Savannah, portions of Charleston and Hilton Head, SC. Much of Tybee Island will be impacted by storm surge along with nearly all of Folly Beach. As seen today in FL the large battering waves of 5-10 ft on top of the storm surge will result in massive beach erosion and collapse of coastal structures. Based on the current storm surge forecast….overtopping of the seawall around Downtown Charleston is likely allowing large battering waves to be driven directly into the historic portions of the city.
As seen today…people that have not taken the evacuation orders seriously have become trapped by the rising sea water on barrier islands and forced to move to higher floors…the threat along the GA and SC coast is much more significant as the storm surge will move further inland as the terrain rise is not as steep as the NE FL coast.
Winds
Expect sustained winds of 60-90mph to continue this evening along the NE FL coast and then spread into the GA coast overnight. Winds along the SC coast will increase into the 70-80mph range early Saturday and likely peak near 80-100mph Saturday midday into Saturday evening. Much more wind energy may reach the SC coast compared to the FL coast as the northern eyewall which has been very strong is likely to actually cross the coastline. Signifcaint wind damage is likely across much of coastal SC from Matthew.
Rainfall:
Rainfall is becoming a much bigger concern northward over SC and NC where Matthew will interact with the upper level jet stream which will help to focus excessive rainfall just inland from the coast. Rainfall amounts of 8-15 inches will be possible which will lead to significant fresh water flooding.
A reminder that the most likely cause of death in any hurricane is flooding from either storm surge or rainfall.
[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Click for latest Base Reflectivity radar loop from the Jacksonville, FL radar and current weather warnings
Daytona Beach
Hurricane Matthew
Titusville
Hurricane Matthew
Daytona Beach (FL side of intercoastal)
Hurricane Matthew
St Augustine (Storm surge flooding)
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